President-elect Trump will move to "preserve" TikTok, said his pick for national security adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz, on Wednesday — as a potential nationwide ban looms.

The big picture: It's not immediately clear what action Trump could take if the U.S. Supreme Court were to uphold a bipartisan law that would ban the wildly popular video app owned by the Chinese company ByteDance unless it's sold to a U.S. firm.

• The justices seem inclined to uphold the law, which could take effect as soon as this Sunday.

Driving the news: Fox News' Bret Baier asked Walz in an interview Wednesday about how true a Washington Post report headlined "Trump considers executive order hoping to 'save TikTok' from ban or sale in U.S. law" was.

• "If the Supreme Court comes out with a ruling in favor of the law, President Trump has been very clear," Walz said on Fox News' "Special Report."
• "Number one, TikTok is a great platform that many Americans use, and was great for his campaign in getting his message out. But, number two, he is going to protect their data," he said. 
• "We're going to find a way to preserve it but protect people's data. And that's the deal that will be in front of us."

Zoom in: Walz acknowledged there are "people out there who don't want the U.S. government seeing all their data and passwords" and we certainly don't want the Chinese government seeing all their data and passwords."

• But he said that Trump "is a dealmaker," adding: "I don't want to get ahead of our executive orders but we're going to create the space to — to put that deal in place."

Between the lines: University of Minnesota law professor Alan Rozenshtein told the Washington Post Wednesday that executive orders "are not magical documents" that would stop a ban from going into effect.

• "TikTok will still be banned, and it will still be illegal for Apple and Google to do business with them," said Rozenshtein, a former national security adviser to the Justice Department.
• "But it will make the president's intention not to enforce the law that much more official."

State of play: President Biden signed into law a bill that passed last year requiring ByteDance to either sell TikTok to an American. company or shut down operations in the U.S. by Jan. 19.

• Trump asked the Supreme Court last month to pause the TikTok ban after previously advocating for one before flip-flopping.
• During oral arguments last week, most of the Supreme Court justices focused on the fact that under the law, TikTok could continue operations if it used an algorithm other than ByteDance's and that as a Chinese company it doesn't have First Amendment rights, per Axios' Sam Baker.

What we're watching: Biden could push the ban's deadline by 90 days if ByteDance makes progress toward a divestiture by Sunday, the day before Trump's inauguration.

• Rozenshtein noted on X Wednesday that the Supreme Court's website suggests it will release an order list on Tuesday, two days after the law is due to take effect.
• "So they might let the law go into effect without actually saying anything either way," he added.

More from Axios:

• Who could buy TikTok to avoid a ban
• What will happen to TikTok on Jan. 19
• TikTok ban timeline: Here's where things stand

Hundreds of staffers at The Washington Post sent a letter to the newspaper's owner, Jeff Bezos, on Wednesday urging him to meet with newsroom leaders amid a confidence crisis with the leadership.

Why it matters: It's the most drastic step staffers have taken to address the myriad challenges facing The Post over the past year.

Zoom in: The letter makes it clear that The Post staffers believe Bezos is aligned with their mission, despite his decision last year to spike a presidential endorsement for Vice President Harris. It argues too much trust has been lost with readers as a result of recent leadership decisions.

• "We believe you take as much pride in the Washington Post as we do," it reads.
• "We are deeply alarmed by recent leadership decisions that have led readers to question the integrity of this institution, broken with a tradition of transparency, and prompted some of our most distinguished colleagues to leave with more departures imminent."
• "This goes far beyond the issue of the presidential endorsement, which we recognize as the owner's prerogative. This is about retaining our competitive edge, restoring trust that has been lost, and re-establishing a relationship with leadership based on open communication."
• Signed by top newsroom leaders, the letter represented non-unionized staffers, as well as staffers within The Washington Post Guild.
• A Washington Post spokesperson declined to comment.

Zoom out: Tension had already been building at The Post, but it started to boil over a few months into CEO Will Lewis' tenure last year.

• Lewis announced sweeping plans to divide The Post's editorial side into three newsrooms, each with a different editor. The delivery of that strategy was met with skepticism.
• There was an internal meltdown over an aborted plan to appoint Robert Winnett, the top editor of The Telegraph in London, as the editor of the main newsroom.
• In recent weeks, a slew of top newsroom stars defected from The Post to rival publications. Last week, The Post informed staff that it would be cutting 4% of its staff, impacting fewer than 100 roles across business functions.

The bottom line: Once the most respected publication in the Beltway, the Washington Post now faces serious competition. Mounting anxiety from within threatens its reputation as ahead of a historic second term for President-elect Trump.

Flashback: Bezos defends Washington Post endorsements block after backlash

Top Senate negotiators are privately warning that talks about a government spending deal are way behind schedule.

Why it matters: Without significant progress, the GOP trifecta will need another spending stopgap or a much-despised omnibus spending package.

• Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) — the top two Senate appropriators — told colleagues they're worried spending talks have taken a back seat to reconciliation planning, sources tell Axios.
• Collins, for her part, has warned colleagues to not lose sight of the 2025 appropriations process, with the March deadline speeding nearer.
• Talks between the House and Senate over a spending deal only recently began.

Zoom in: The current spending deal expires on March 14.

• The GOP's worst-case scenario: A shutdown when Republicans control the whole government.

The bottom line: The House and Senate need to bridge a $30-plus billion gap in their spending wishes. They aren't close.

Southwest Airlines is being sued and Frontier Airlines fined over chronic flight delays by the Department of Transportation, the DOT announced Wednesday.

Why it matters: Wednesday's announcement by the outgoing Biden administration's Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg, comes days after the DOT fined JetBlue $2 million for chronic flight delays — the first time such a penalty had been imposed on an airline.

What we're watching: When asked for comment Wednesday evening on whether Southwest would petition the incoming Trump administration to withdraw the lawsuit, company spokesperson Lynn Lunsford said the airline "has kept an open dialogue with DOT and continues to invite the agency to engage in discussions about a reasonable settlement."

Driving the news: The U.S. Government and Buttigieg are seeking maximum penalties against Southwest for allegedly illegally operating multiple chronically delayed flights, per the lawsuit that was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California on Wednesday.

• DOT alleges an investigation found that Southwest operated two "chronically delayed" services between April and August 2022 that resulted in 180 flight disruptions for passengers.
• Each flight involving the trips Chicago Midway International Airport and Oakland, Calif, and between Baltimore, Md. and Cleveland, Ohio, was chronically delayed for five straight months, per the suit.

Separately, DOT issued Frontier Airlines with a fine for "operating multiple chronically delayed flights."

• The airline faces $650,000 in civil penalties with $325,000 to be paid to the U.S. Treasury, per a DOT statement.
• The remaining $325,000 to be suspended if the carrier does not operate any chronically delayed flights in the next three years.

What they're saying: "Airlines have a legal obligation to ensure that their flight schedules provide travelers with realistic departure and arrival times. Today's action sends a message to all airlines that the Department is prepared to go to court in order to enforce passenger protections," Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement.

• Lunsford said via email the airline was "disappointed that DOT chose to file a lawsuit over two flights that occurred more than two years ago" and noted there had been no other violations of the department's Chronically Delayed Flight policy since it was issued in 2009.
• "Any claim that these two flights represent an unrealistic schedule is simply not credible when compared with our performance over the past 15 years," she said. "In 2024, Southwest led the industry by completing more than 99% of its flights without cancellation."
• Representatives for Frontier declined to comment and representatives for President-elect Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: The best (and worst) airports for on-time departures

A handful of potential buyers have emerged, as the deadline for TikTok to be banned in the U.S. is a few days away.

Why it matters: A sale is an option that ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, could exercise if it wants the app to be a part of the U.S. media landscape.

• Biden could push the ban's deadline by 90 days if he learns that ByteDance is making progress toward a divestiture.
• If the company chooses not to sell, TikTok will be banned as early as Jan. 19 if the Supreme Court upholds a bipartisan law.

Zoom in: YouTuber James "Jimmy" Donaldson, famously known as MrBeast, announced on Wednesday in an Instagram post that he had a meeting with several billionaires and has "an offer ready" for TikTok.

• Donaldson did not share further information about who the billionaires are or what the plan looks like.
• He did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Billionaire Frank McCourt in December pulled together participants for a consortium of investors interested in pursuing a "peoples bid" for TikTok, Axios' Sara Fischer reported.

• McCourt believes Project Liberty, an internet advocacy group, "is uniquely positioned to assume stewardship of TikTok" because of the tech and governance protocols it has built to prioritize user privacy and safety.
• The bid has been joined by Kevin O'Leary, one of the hosts of "Shark Tank."
• Project Liberty announced last week that it submitted a proposal to buy TikTok from ByteDance.

Bobby Kotick, the former CEO of Activision Blizzard, expressed interest to ByteDance co-founder Zhang Yiming about buying TikTok, the Wall Street Journal reported last year.

• Kotick floated the idea to a table of people that included OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
• Kotick has not commented publicly on the offer.

By the numbers: TikTok has a stunning 170 million users in the U.S., and just 32% of Americans support a ban, according to a Pew Research Center survey.

The bottom line: All of TikTok's interested buyers may want to purchase the platform, with its price tag estimated in the billions, but ultimately, the Chinese government will effectively hold veto power over any sale.

More from Axios:

• What will happen to TikTok on Jan. 19
• Meta, Google stand to win ad share from TikTok ban
• TikTok Supreme Court takeaways

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has ousted Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) as the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, multiple GOP sources familiar with the matter confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: Turner, who was tapped to lead Republicans on the panel by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in 2022, has at times broken with party leadership in a way that angered his GOP colleagues.

• Most notably, he put out a jarring but cryptic statement last February warning of a "serious national security threat" that turned out to be about Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons.
• One former House Republican said there is a feeling that Turner is "way too intel establishment."

Zoom out: It's the second time in as many days Johnson has removed a Republican from a key panel.

• Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), the lone House Republican to vote against reelecting Johnson as speaker on Jan. 3, was taken off the Rules Committee — though he left voluntarily.

President Biden took swipes at President-elect Trump during his farewell address Wednesday as he reflected on his legacy from the Oval Office.

The big picture: The 82-year-old, one-term president who has spent five decades in politics will hand over the White House keys to 78-year-old Trump next week, after initially running to rid him from Washington.

Driving the news: Biden in his speech took aim at Trump and the U.S. Supreme Court majority ruling that presidents have immunity for "official acts" in the Republican's since-dismissed federal Jan. 6 case.

• "We need to amend the Constitution to make clear that no president is immune from crimes that he or she commits while in office," Biden said.
• In another prod at the incoming Trump administration, Biden said: "Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms."
• He added that the tax code must be reformed, "not by giving the biggest tax cuts to billionaires, but by making them begin to pay their fair share."

Yes, but: Biden wished the incoming administration "success," saying he wants the U.S. to succeed, and pledged "to ensure a peaceful and orderly transition of power."

What he's saying: "I've kept my commitment to be president for all Americans through one of the toughest periods in our nation's history," Biden said in his first speech from the Oval Office since announcing he wasn't running for re-election.

• He called Vice President Harris a great partner in that effort, and said she and husband Doug Emhoff have become "like family."

Zoom in: In a letter to the public Wednesday, Biden praised his administration's accomplishments and called on Americans to continue building on its progress.

• "It has been the privilege of my life to serve this nation for over 50 years ... I have given my heart and my soul to our nation," Biden wrote.
• He also delivered remarks earlier Wednesday about the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal.

Zoom out: Rather than focusing on policy successes, Biden reflected on American values and on the importance of the institutions that "govern a free society."

• He said: "After 50 years of public service, I give you my word I still believe in the idea for which this nation stands, a nation where the strengths of our institutions and the character of our people matter and must endure."
• Addressing the American people, he added, "Now it's your turn to stand guard."

Flashback: Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race in July after a poor performance in a debate against Trump.

• He quickly endorsed Vice President Harris to be the party's nominee, though she ultimately lost.

More from Axios:

• Biden warns against extreme wealth and rise of "tech industrial complex"
• "History is in your hands" Biden tells Americans ahead of farewell address

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

President Biden delivers his farewell address Wednesday night live from the Oval Office.

Why it matters: Biden's remarks focus on defining his legacy and record more than on President-elect Trump.

• Follow along with Axios' live coverage here.

When is Biden's farewell speech tonight?

Zoom in: Biden is scheduled to address the nation at 8pm ET.

• It's Biden's fifth Oval Office address since he became president in 2021.
• His last speech from the Oval Office was in July after he announced he wasn't running for re-election.

How to watch Biden speech live

Zoom in: Major television networks — including ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC — are airing the speech live.

• Cable news channels also will air Biden's address live.

Stream Biden's farewell address live

The big picture: Biden's farewell address to the nation will be streamed live on YouTube, network and streaming apps.

• You can also livestream the speech on Axios with the above YouTube video.

More from Axios:

• How to apply for FEMA $770 payment for California fires
• IRS is sending out stimulus checks to 1 million taxpayers. What to know
• Taco Bell, McDonald's, Subway, Wendy's, KFC add new meal deals

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has a "fairly lengthy list" of last-minute Biden regulations that Republicans may try to undo in the coming weeks, he told Axios.

Why it matters: The Congressional Review Act (CRA) gives Congress until mid-May to reverse what Republicans are calling the "midnight rules" of the Biden administration.

• Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) will kick things off next week by introducing three resolutions to erase Biden moves on crypto, energy and internet access.
• "We are scrubbing right now to determine what is eligible," Thune said at an event at the American Petroleum Institute earlier on Tuesday.

How it works: CRA resolutions have to pass with majority votes in both chambers of Congress.

• Those votes can only happen 15 legislative days into a new Congress — the power won't be available until late January or early February.
• The window for action closes 60 sessions into the new Congress.

Flashback: In early 2017, Trump and congressional Republicans used CRA resolutions to erase 16 Obama administration rules.

• In 2021, Biden and congressional Democrats returned the favor and repealed three Trump rules.

What they're saying: Cruz, who chairs the Commerce committee, told Axios that he is confident that his three resolutions will pass. He expects the process to move "expeditiously" after he files next week.

• One resolution would rescind a December regulation by the Energy Department that regulated gas water heaters.
• Another would undo an IRS rule — finalized last month — that has sparked outrage in crypto circles. The rule requires more reporting on income earned in cryptocurrencies. Sens. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) — who chairs the new crypto subcommittee— Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) and Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) are cosponsors.
• Cruz's final target is a FCC regulation that allow schools and libraries to lend Wifi hotspots to students through the E-Rate program. Cruz argued it violates the Communications Act, increases taxes and "opens up children to real risks of abuse" with no limits on their broadband usage.

What to watch: The law doesn't give a new Congress blanket authority to undo all of the previous administration's final rules and regulations.

• But Thune's team is trying to convince the Senate parliamentarian how they can use the CRA to undo California's tailpipe standard, which would require 100% of new cars sold by 2035 to be zero emission.
• "We are looking for lots of opportunities in that space and trying to argue with the parliamentarian," Thune said at the API event. "The whole California waiver issue … was such a radical regulatory overreach."

Greenland must make its own decisions about independence from Denmark, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told President-elect Trump in a Wednesday phone call.

The big picture: Trump, since his first term, has repeatedly floated the idea of the U.S. buying Greenland even though the island's leaders have said it is not for sale.

• The issue has taken on new importance since Trump hasn't ruled out using military force to take control of Greenland as he returns to the White House.
• Greenland views itself as an autonomous country that is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and it has the option of declaring its independence under the 2009 Greenland Self-Government Act.
• Denmark has sent Trump private messages expressing willingness to discuss boosting security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island, Axios previously reported.

Zoom in: Frederiksen in her call with Trump reiterated Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede's statement "that Greenland is not for sale," according to a Danish press release.

• "The Prime Minister has argued that it is up to Greenland itself to make a decision on independence," a translated version of the release said.
• Trump's representatives did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Flashback: Frederiksen and Trump have a tense history on the issue.

• During his first term, Trump canceled a trip to Denmark after the prime minister called the idea of the U.S. purchasing Greenland "absurd." Trump at the time called her comments "nasty" and "inappropriate."

The bottom line: The main question is whether Trump would be content to cut a deal with Denmark and declare victory, or whether his true mission is to become the first president in 80 years to gain new territory for the U.S., Axios' Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler report.

More from Axios:

• Scoop: Denmark sent Trump team private messages on Greenland
• House GOP crafts bill to let Trump purchase Greenland
• Denmark bolstering Greenland defense after Trump ownership comments

President-elect Trump's Monday inauguration ceremony is set to be colder than the norm.

Why it matters: D.C. is preparing for 250,000 ticketed guests and thousands more at the National Mall for the outdoor ceremony — which has caused emergencies from extreme weather in its history.

• "It's going to be very cold out there for any folks attending the inauguration," Eric Taylor, a forecaster for the National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia, told Axios.

State of play: Air temperatures during the day on Monday are expected to be in the low- to mid-20s, Taylor said.

• Wind chill factors by about noon will be between 12ºF and 14ºF.
• Monday is set to be more dry than the weekend, which has rain (and possible Sunday snow) on the forecast.
• Breeze could be sustained at 20 to 30 miles per hour at times.

Context: Monday is slated to be cooler than Jan. 20 has been in D.C. in recent decades, per the NWS.

• The normal high for that date is 45ºF and the normal low is 30ºF, calculated from 1991 to 2020 data.

Flashback: Official weather record-keeping for the event began in 1871.

• Inauguration Day, previously held in March, was moved to Jan. 20 in 1937.

President Ronald Reagan was inaugurated and sworn in on both the warmest and coldest Jan. 20s, per the NWS.

• His 1981 inauguration was at 55ºF with mostly cloudy skies. His second ceremony in 1985 had to be held indoors because of 7ºF temperature at noon.

President William Henry Harrison developed pneumonia from the weather on his Inauguration Day in 1841 and died a month later, the NWS reported.

• He rode a horse to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat and delivered an hour and 40 minute long speech.

President William Taft's 1909 ceremony was forced indoors because of a storm that brought 10 inches of snow to D.C.

• "It took 6,000 men and 500 wagons to clear 58,000 tons of snow and slush from the parade route," per the NWS.

President Franklin Roosevelt's second ceremony holds the record rainfall for the date at 1.77 inches.

• "At the president's insistence, he rode back to the White House in an open car with a half an inch of water on the floor," NWS said. "Later, he stood for an hour and a half in an exposed viewing stand watching the inaugural parade splash by in the deluge."

Go deeper: Flags to fly at full-staff for inauguration after Trump's complaints

President-elect Trump's pick to lead the Energy Department Chris Wright walked a fine line Wednesday as he called climate change "a real and global phenomenon" but remained skeptical during his U.S. Senate confirmation hearing.

Why it matters: Wright, the CEO of fracking company Liberty Energy, looked to temper his tone but stood by prior statements criticizing "climate zealots" and calling climate change not a pressing concern.

Driving the news: In his opening statement, Wright outlined three goals in front of the Energy and Natural Resource Committee if confirmed as energy secretary.

• He emphasized the importance of domestic energy production and the need to "lead the world in innovation and technology." And he called the resiliency of the nation's electrical grid "the most urgent energy issue today."
• In addition, he acknowledged that the combustion of hydrocarbons is contributing to climate change.

The intrigue: Colorado's U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat on the committee, introduced Wright, a Denver native and longtime acquaintance.

• Hickenlooper called him a "scientist who is open to discussion," praising Wright's care for energy poverty issues and backing of a variety of energy technologies.
• Spokespeople for Hickenlooper and fellow Democrat U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, said they have not decided how they will vote on Wright's confirmation.

The big picture: Democrats, who consider it an existential threat, sharply criticized Wright on climate change while Republicans touted his support for nuclear energy and the oil and gas industry.

Zoom in: The tensest moment came when U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-California) pressed Wright on his prior comments about wildfires and climate change in the shadow of the deadly fires in southern California.

• Padilla quoted a prior Wright social media post saying: "the hype over wildfires is just hype to justify more improvement from bad government policies."

Wright said he stood by his comments but expressed sorrow about the devastation left by the Los Angeles area fires.

• "Tell that to the families of the more than two dozen lost in these fires and counting," Padilla said in return.

Go deeper with Axios Pro

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to remove a reference to Sen. Hickenlooper announcing his support for the nominee, Wright. (He made no such announcement.) It has also been corrected to reflect that Sen. Alex Padilla said more than two dozen people (not a dozen) died in the California fires.

Documents obtained by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) show that the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is considering proposals to expand its immigration detention capacity in at least eight states.

Why it matters: The proposals going back to September show that the Biden administration was preparing for its own expanded detention of immigrants while Democrats attacked President-elect Trump for his mass deportation plan.

The big picture: The plans could give Trump a head start to launch the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history once he takes office since detention is the most costly and labor-intensive piece of deportation.

Zoom in: The ACLU said Wednesday that documents obtained through an open records request show proposals sought expansion of detention capacity in Michigan, California, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Texas, and Washington state.

• They reveal that private prison corporations — and other companies that provide services to build temporary facilities, monitor compliance and staff facilities — submitted proposals for expanded immigration detention in response to ICE's contract requests.
• Documents show GEO Group, Inc., CoreCivic, Management and Training Corporation (MTC) and Target Hospitality, which provides temporary tent facilities, submitted proposals.

Zoom out: The proposals mentioned the North Lake Correctional Facility in Baldwin, Michigan, which is owned and operated by the GEO Group, Inc.

• Also cited was the Rio Grande Processing Center in Laredo, Texas, owned and operated by the GEO Group, Inc.
• Carrizo Springs, a tent facility previously used to detain immigrant minors in Carrizo Springs, Texas, owned by Target Hospitality, was also mentioned.

An ICE spokesperson did not immediately respond to an email from Axios.

What they're saying: "These records only further confirm ICE's work to expand immigration detention across the country," Eunice Cho, senior staff attorney at the ACLU's National Prison Project, said in a statement.

• Cho said this includes in facilities "with clear records of abuse" and in areas where immigration detention has not previously existed.
• "Expansion of detention will only enable ICE to enact President-elect Donald Trump's plans for mass deportation."

Between the lines: The documents show that the Biden administration, just like the Obama administration, was involved in outlining its own stepped-up deportation plan while attacking Republicans for suggesting the same.

• Immigrant rights groups have criticized Trump's mass deportation plan and said it would strike fear in communities across the country.
• But many of the same groups have been reluctant to attack President Biden or Vice President Harris.
• Harris said she supported a bipartisan crackdown on immigration and border security, drawing criticism from smaller grassroots immigrant advocacy groups.

State of play: U.S. immigration courts are on pace to decide record numbers of deportation cases — and order the most removals in five years — under Biden's push to fast-track asylum decisions.

• U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported more than 271,000 people last fiscal year — the most in nearly a decade, according to an annual report released last month.

The intrigue: The discovery comes just weeks after the ACLU received its first and second tranche of FOIA documents revealing that ICE is considering expanding detention facilities in several states.

By the numbers: ICE currently only has around 38,000 people in detention — prioritizing noncitizens the border patrol arrested at the Southwest Border and noncitizens with criminal histories, according to ICE's annual report.

• To hold more people from a raid surge would require a mass building project of "soft detention" centers, or temporary ad hoc facilities, to house people.

What we're watching: The Trump administration can act on the proposals from the Biden administration and seek more.

A powerful Arctic outbreak tied in part to the polar vortex is set to send temperatures by next week tumbling down to as cold as 35 degrees Fahrenheit below average for mid-January, forecasts show.

Why it matters: The hazardous cold could endanger public health, stress electricity grids, damage crops and make for a frigid Inauguration Day.

• This event is likely to be far colder and more widespread than the Arctic outbreak that occurred earlier this month.

Threat level: Mother Nature's refrigerator door looks to open, with cold air spilling southward out of northern Canada beginning Saturday and lasting for at least a week.

• Through Sunday, about 81 million people are predicted to see temperatures plunge to below-zero Fahrenheit.
• That's a smaller number compared with the polar vortex winter of 2013-2014. But it will increase after Sunday.

Zoom in: The hazardous cold will be especially disruptive in the South and Southeast, where temperature departures from average will be significant.

• The region also may see a snow and ice storm midweek next week.

The Arctic outbreak is likely to result in a blustery and frigid Inauguration Day, with temperatures in the mid-20s°F and wind chills in the teens on the National Mall when President-elect Trump takes the oath of office.

By the numbers: Here's how some cities may be affected early next week:

• Minneapolis: A high of minus-2°F with a low of minus-14°F on Jan. 20.
• Denver: A high of 5°F and a low of minus-5°F on Jan. 20.
• Dallas: A high of 34°F and a low of 20°F on Jan. 20.
• Washington, D.C.: A high of 28°F and a low of 22°F on Jan. 20.

Between the lines: The factors behind this cold outbreak include a strong high pressure area or "ridge" in the jet stream across the eastern Pacific north to Alaska. Meanwhile, there's a dip, or "trough," in the jet stream across central portions of the U.S.

• This will allow Arctic air to surge southward, Zack Taylor, a forecaster at NOAA's Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Md., told Axios.
• There's also a connection to the tropospheric polar vortex, which is distinct from the higher-level, stratospheric polar vortex.
• The latter feature of the Northern Hemisphere winter climate is currently becoming "stretched" from north to south across the North Pole, but it is not breaking into pieces and surging towards the Lower 48 states as it did in 2014.
• Instead, the stretched vortex is expanding southward and helping to promote the flow of air from northern Canada southward toward the continental U.S., said Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at Atmospheric & Environmental Research.

Zoom out: In the troposphere, at about the same height that jet aircraft cruise, a lobe or multiple pieces of ultra-cold air may enter the U.S. while rotating around Hudson Bay, Canada.

• These could result in some of the most extreme cold temperature anomalies of this event.
• In a sign of the magnitude of the cold air on tap for the U.S., computer models are projecting a record strong area of high pressure over Missouri to form early next week, Taylor said.

Context: Studies suggest polar vortex shifts may be more likely due to human-caused climate change, but this is an area of active research.

• Cohen has published research tying rapid, human-induced Arctic warming to a chain of events including disappearing fall sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas.

Friction point: But this area of climate science is hotly contested, with new studies supporting and knocking it down appearing each year.

The intrigue: While a polar vortex event was much-advertised earlier in January, air temperatures turned out to be milder than anticipated.

• That's not likely to be the case this time, however, Taylor said.
• "The weather pattern just looks so much better than it did compared to a week or so ago," he said, referring to the opportunity for extreme cold.
• He noted wind chills could plunge to minus-30°F to minus-40°F in the Upper Midwest and Plains, and even reach below zero in the Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic early next week.
• The cold air is likely to be persistent along the Gulf Coast, Taylor said.

It is not expected that this event will break dozens of records, in part because it can be hard to break cold temperature records at this time of year.

• Also, extreme cold is due to become less severe in a climate that is warming over time due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Go deeper: Abnormally cold weather forecast for Trump's inauguration

Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi echoed President-elect Trump's persistent claims that the charges he faced stemmed from politically motivated prosecution driven by President Biden's Justice Department during her Wednesday confirmation hearing.

Why it matters: If confirmed, Bondi's appointment would install a Trump loyalist in the nation's highest law enforcement role — empowering a MAGA overhaul of the DOJ, which could include investigating the president-elect's political enemies.

• Bondi claimed prosecutors "targeted" Trump and his campaign dating back to 2016, adding that she will not "politicize" the DOJ or "target people simply because of their political affiliation."

Driving the news: Bondi vowed in her opening statement to "return the Department of Justice to its core mission of keeping Americans safe and vigorously prosecuting criminals."

• "America will have one tier of justice for all," she said.
• Trump, who was convicted of falsifying business records in New York, has repeatedly sought to cast his various criminal cases as political prosecution by Democrats.

Zoom in: Bondi said she "absolutely" has not discussed appointing a special counsel to investigate Biden, nor has she spoken with the president-elect about going after former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) or members of the House Jan. 6 select committee.

• "No one will be prosecuted, investigated because they are a political opponent," Bondi said. "That's what we've seen for the last four years in this administration."
• Trump has said members of the committee that investigated the Capitol riot should be jailed and has labeled Schiff an enemy "from within."

During a heated exchange with Schiff, Bondi would not say whether she would investigate Special Counsel Jack Smith, noting she'd need more than a "summary" to reach a decision and that it would be "irresponsible" to commit.

• She said what she's heard on "the news" is "horrible" but said she has not "looked at" whether Smith "committed a crime."
• Bondi shot back at Schiff when he asked whether there was a factual predicate to investigate Cheney, saying "we should be worried" about the "crime rate in California."
• Schiff also repeatedly pushed Bondi on Jan. 6 pardons, a day-one priority for Trump that Bondi said she would have "plenty of staff" to work.

Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats pressed Bondi about her loyalty to Trump during her Wednesday confirmation hearing, highlighting past rhetoric that bolstered his false claims about the 2020 election being stolen.

• "At issue I believe in this nomination hearing is not your competence nor your experience," Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the ranking member on the panel, said during the hearing. "At issue is your ability to say no."

Durbin pressed Bondi on if she has any doubts about the 2020 election, to which she replied, "President Biden is the President of the United States."

• Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) pressed Bondi on how she would handle potential White House interference at the Department of Justice. Bondi said she believes the DOJ "must be independent and must act independently."

Between the lines: Bondi is a longtime Trump ally who has been at his side at times of legal jeopardy, including as a member of his impeachment team in 2020.

Asked by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) what she would do should Trump give an illegal or unethical order, Bondi said she "will never speak on a hypothetical, especially one saying that the president would do something illegal."

• She again did not answer the hypothetical question of whether she would bring in a special prosecutor if she received credible evidence of a criminal violation by a White House official, including the president.
• "What I do know is special prosecutors have been abused in the past on both sides," she said, adding, "I will look at each situation on a case-by-case basis and consult the appropriate career ethics officials within the department."

Zoom out: During questioning from Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Bondi repeatedly said she was not familiar with statements Trump had made, including his characterization of Jan. 6 defendants as "hostages" or "patriots."

• Asked earlier in the hearing about pardons for those who stormed the Capitol, she said she'd advise on a "case by case basis."

Catch up quick: Bondi, a veteran prosecutor and former Florida attorney general, was Trump's second pick for attorney general after his embattled first pick, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, withdrew his name from consideration.

• Bondi's hearing will be split across two days, picking up again Thursday at 10:15am ET.
• Bondi's hearing comes a day after Pete Hegseth's fireworks-filled appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee, where Democrats pressed him on his qualifications to be Defense secretary and the slate of allegations against him.

Go deeper: Scoop: Schumer's plan to fire back at MAGA nominees

Editor's note: This story has been updated throughout with additional information from the hearing.

This chart helps explain why President-elect Trump won't have an easy time delivering on pledges to surge U.S. oil production — at least anytime soon.

State of play: The latest analysis from the Energy Department's independent stats arm sees just modest output growth this year and next (albeit from already record levels).

• It sees production rising less than 1% in 2026 "as operators slow activity due to price pressures."

Why it matters: Market fundamentals hold the cards on producers' decisions — and for now, they probably work against a U.S. surge.

• The Energy Information Administration sees global supply outstripping demand growth over the next two years.
• And it sees falling prices, with the U.S. benchmark WTI averaging $70 per barrel this year but falling to $62 in 2026.

Yes, but: These look-aheads change all the time. There's a reason major forecasting bodies do them monthly.

• Trump's vow to ease regulations could make more barrels economic to produce, though prices and investor goals are typically bigger drivers.

And the global picture is fluid. Think variables like the effect of new sanctions on Russian shipments; Trump's plan to tighten enforcement of Iranian sanctions; and whether OPEC+ adds barrels.

• The International Energy Agency this morning said expanded U.S. sanctions against Russia unveiled this month could "significantly disrupt" the country's supply.
• But for now, IEA is keeping its Russian supply forecast unchanged.

The big picture: It may take years to assess Trump's effect.

• One big thing to watch: efforts to expand oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and frontier areas in Alaska.
• Those kinds of projects have decade-long timelines.

Stunning stat: Obviously the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico is the heart of American oil, but this is still wild: its share of total U.S. production should top 50% in 2026.

• "The expected production growth in the Permian in 2026 will be offset by contraction in other regions," EIA finds.
• It sees the Permian producing nearly 7 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. It was under 1 million 15 years ago.

What's next: Look for executive orders on Trump's first day that launch time-consuming bureaucratic work to loosen restrictions.

Inflation showed cooling signs at the end of 2024: The Consumer Price Index ticked up by 0.4% in December, but a measure that excludes food and energy prices slowed for the first time in four months, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.

Why it matters: Core inflation resumed a cooling trend, offering some optimism for policymakers ahead of an uncertain year.

• Officials at the Federal Reserve have projected fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than previously estimated on the back of stickier inflation.

By the numbers: The Consumer Price Index rose at a slightly quicker pace than the 0.3% increase in the prior month, as energy prices surged by 2.6% in December alone. Gasoline prices shot up 4.4%.

• Over the year ending in December, CPI rose 2.9% — up from 2.7% in November.

Yes, but: Core CPI, a closely watched underlying measure of inflation that strips out food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in December. That breaks the four-month-long streak of 0.3% increases.

• Core CPI increased 3.2% in the 12 months through December, compared to the 3.3% in November.

The bottom line: Inflation has plunged from the sky-high levels seen in 2022. But the path to getting inflation to 2% — the level preferred by the Fed — has looked more arduous than previously thought.

• The data released on Wednesday offers a bit of hope after a months-long stall, though economists warn Trump's trade and immigration policies might further delay progress.

Editor's note: This story was updated with a new chart.

A deal has been reached in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas to release hostages being held in Gaza and establish a ceasefire, according to U.S., Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials.

Why it matters: The agreement will end more than 15 months of the deadliest war in the decades long Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

• About 98 hostages are still being held in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages, including three Americans, are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence.
• More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza.
• The first phase of the deal calls for 33 hostages to be released along with around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

The latest: Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani officially announced an agreement has been reached and said it will come into effect on Sunday. A joint U.S.-Egyptian-Qatari team in Cairo will monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, he said.

• President-elect Trump on Truth Social said "we have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East."

In a statement announcing the agreement, President Biden said it "is the result not only of the extreme pressure that Hamas has been under and the changed regional equation after a ceasefire in Lebanon and weakening of Iran — but also of dogged and painstaking American diplomacy."

• Biden said several U.S. citizens being held hostage will be released as part of the first phase of the deal.
• Israeli officials said it will actualy be two U.S. citizens, Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel-Chen.
• Biden said he is "confident" the deal will hold.

The Israeli cabinet will convene on Thursday morning local time to approve the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, officials said.

• Israel and Hamas haven't officially announced a deal, but NBC News reported senior Hamas official Basem Naim confirmed the militant group had agreed.

The big picture: The indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas reached a critical point over the weekend, one week before Trump will be sworn into office.

• The President-elect has threatened there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas didn't release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated.

Israeli officials, Hamas officials and mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. have been working around the clock for several days in Doha to hammer out a deal.

• Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff have both been in Doha since last week and have been working together to push for a deal.
• Earlier this week, the mediators gave Hamas a final draft agreement.
• Hamas representatives in Doha signed off a few days ago but the parties waited for a response from Hamas' military leader in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar, which arrived on Wednesday afternoon local time.
• The head of Hamas' negotiating team, Khalil al-Hayya, said in a speech from Qatar after the deal was announced that the Oct. 7 attack on Israel "will forever be a source of pride for our people... and our people will expel the occupation from our land and from Jerusalem in the earliest time possible"

Zoom in: According to the agreement, 33 hostages will be released in the first phase of the deal, including women, children, men over the age of 50 and men under the age of 50 who are wounded or sick. Israel's assessment is that most of those 33 hostages are alive.

• The hostages will be released gradually throughout the first phase of the agreement, beginning on the first day of the six-week ceasefire in Gaza.

During the first phase, Israeli Defense Forces will also gradually withdraw to a buffer zone in Gaza near the border with Israel. The IDF will leave the Netzarim corridor in the center of the Gaza Strip and most of the Philadelphi corridor on the border between Gaza and Egypt.

• Palestinians will also be allowed to return to northern Gaza during the first phase of the deal. Those who travel by foot won't go through security checks but vehicles will be checked by Qatari and Egyptian officials to ensure no heavy weapons are transferred to Gaza.
• Roughly 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will also be released, including about 200 accused of murdering Israelis. The exact number of prisoners to be released will be determined only after Hamas clarifies which of the hostages to be released are alive, Israeli official said.
• From the first day of the ceasefire, 600 aid trucks, including 50 fuel trucks, will enter Gaza every day. In addition, 200,000 tents and 60,000 mobile homes will be delivered for displaced Palestinians in Gaza.
• The agreement stipulates that Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. will serve as guarantors for the implementation of the agreement.

On the sixteenth day of the ceasefire, Israel and Hamas will begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement, which is supposed to include the release of the remaining hostages and a permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

John Ratcliffe — who is Trump's pick for CIA, and was director of national intelligence for the final months of Trump's first term — will rail against the politicization of the intelligence community during his Senate Intelligence Committee hearing today, a transition source tells Axios.

• He'll vow to eliminate political biases and "wokeness" in the agency's workforce policies, and instead focus on "the mission."

Driving the news: Ratcliffe will portray tech as both a target (Where's China on hypersonics, quantum and AI?) and as a tool (How are analysts utilizing large language models and AI? How are spies beating ubiquitous technical surveillance?).

• Ratcliffe thinks the agency — with a complex matrix of tech-focused directorates, mission centers and positions — has struggled to keep pace with the rapid technological advancements in the private sector.
• He plans to accelerate efforts to coordinate with U.S. private-sector firms at the bleeding edge of technological advancement.

Ratcliffe will focus on China, as reported in a Wall Street Journal banger, "Trump's CIA Pick Expected to Push for Bare-Knuckle Spycraft Against China."

The world's CEOs are much more worried about global trade wars now that Donald Trump has been elected president than they were a year ago, according to a new survey from the Conference Board.

Why it matters: While no one knows exactly what tariffs the upcoming Trump administration is going to impose on which countries, the one certainty is that substantially all such tariffs will be met with retaliatory counter-tariffs. Or more simply: a trade war.

• As Axios noted on Monday, rapidly introduced tariffs could trigger speedy retaliation from major allies, including a broad-based 25% Canadian tariff on all U.S. imports.
• Such actions would make the 2018 trade war look minuscule.

Zoom out: The 2025 list of the top geopolitical worries also includes "foreign investment restrictions" and "greater risk of conflict in Asia-Pacific," both of which have risen sharply from their position last year.

The other side: Geopolitical worries don't seem to have dampened broader economic optimism.

• While 55% of U.S. CEOs said the risk of an economic downturn or recession was going to be a high-impact issue in 2024, that number has fallen to less than 40% in 2025.
• Similarly, the proportion of U.S. CEOs worried about high borrowing costs fell from 28% in 2024 to 16% in 2025.

Between the lines: As CEOs get more optimistic on the economy, a new Deloitte survey of North American CFOs shows a huge uptick in their risk appetite, too, since the election.

• 67% of CFOs say "now is a good time to take risks" — a six-year high.
• That figure is up from just 12% in the third quarter.

The bottom line: Global CEOs seem to have taken Baron Rothschild's admonition to heart: "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."