Tech evangelists predict the arrival of "superintelligence" any year now, but others doubt AI will ever produce its own Leonardos and Einsteins.

Driving the news: In a post on X Tuesday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman touted the company's development of "a new model that is good at creative writing" and showed off its work — a thousand-word "metafictional" composition on "AI and grief."

Why it matters: Creativity could be the final hurdle for AI to leap in proving it's humanity's peer — but until then, many see it as the last bastion of humanity's irreplaceability.

The big picture: Whether telling stories or researching scientific breakthroughs, today's generative AI isn't very good at creative leaps and novel insights.

• It's bounded by what it "knows" — the data it is trained on — and how it "thinks," by guessing the next word or pixel that best fulfills its prompt.

In science, our AI models aren't going to push the boundaries because they're too eager to please people and prove their utility, Thomas Wolf, HuggingFace's co-founder and chief science officer, wrote on X last week.

• Wolf called AI that does research "yes-men on servers."
• "To create an Einstein in a data center, we don't just need a system that knows all the answers, but rather one that can ask questions nobody else has thought of or dared to ask," Wolf argued.
• The benchmarks we're using to gauge AI's advances "consist of very difficult questions — usually written by PhDs — but with clear, closed-end answers... Real scientific breakthroughs will come not from answering known questions, but from asking challenging new questions and questioning common conceptions and previous ideas."

Getting AI to produce compelling art looks even more unlikely.

• Most work produced by AI is literally derivative. Of course, most artists, especially at the start of their careers, learn by imitation, and many human artworks are effectively collages, rewrites or remixes.
• But memorable artists develop distinctive voices by mixing their own experiences and obsessions with whatever they've learned from the artists they admire — and even their collages "sound like them."
• People seek out art because hearing those voices inspires them, leaving them feeling connected with the artist in a way that they cherish.

The short story Altman posted showed formal facility — but many of the responses on X found it, as I did, more exercise than expression.

Between the lines: Plenty of artists will find AI a valuable creative tool or an aid to brainstorming, just as many researchers will employ it to speed their work.

• But creation is likely to remain hard work for human beings. It takes effort to wrestle a vague idea in your head into words, images or any other material for an audience to encounter.
• This is the sort of friction that AI visionaries sometimes promise to liberate us from.

Yes, but: "Friction-free art" is inert. What sends off sparks is the struggle of a person's urge to express something against the limits of form and medium.

The bottom line: LLMs are like youngsters who have read a lot but do not have experience of the world. And right now there's not much of a way for AIs to get it.

• An LLM has never felt sunlight on its arm or raindrops on its head, known a parent or a child, given birth or faced death.
• It doesn't feel the need to share such experiences or to shape them into works of writing, or music, or any other form.

What's next: Maybe the fusion of generative AI with robotics will surprise us, and an embodied LLM will find itself moving toward something humans might recognize as art.

• But it's very possible AI will never be truly creative because it has no impulse to play around for the heck of it, to impress peers or best rivals, or to leave a little mark on the world. People give AI prompts, whereas human artists get their prompts from their own lives.

The world's largest retailer is clashing with China over the company's efforts to reduce the impact of President Trump's increased tariffs.

Why it matters: Walmart — whose brand is inextricably linked to low prices — is trying to leverage its monumental size to mitigate its own costs from the billowing international trade war.

Driving the news: Officials from China's Ministry of Commerce met with Walmart executives on Tuesday to cry foul over the retailer pressuring local suppliers to absorb tariff hikes, according to a Chinese state media report.

• The Ministry of Commerce called for Chinese and American companies to work together in response to the tariffs.

Threat level: "If Walmart insists" ... "then what awaits Walmart is not just talk," state broadcaster China Central Television said on social media Wednesday, according to the WSJ.

Walmart did not respond to requests for comment.

• WSJ, citing people familiar with Tuesday's meeting, reported that the company offered to work with Chinese suppliers to "find ways to avoid damaging the interests of the parties involved."

Zoom out: Walmart's retail business in China is growing but was still less than 3% of the company's total sales in the 2024 fiscal year, according to an SEC filing.

• In that respect, the company has more to lose in the U.S. and other core markets if increased costs lead to price hikes.

Yes, but: Its exposure to Chinese supply lines is more substantial. Reuters has estimated that 60% of Walmart's shipments came from the country in 2023.

• Walmart has also made significant investments in its Chinese supply chain, having committed in 2019 to build or upgrade more than 10 logistics distribution centers in the country over the next 10 to 20 years.

Follow the money: "The retailer has historically had strong bargaining power over its Chinese suppliers and requests for lower prices have mostly been met," Bloomberg reported last week, citing people familiar with the matter. "But the scope of the recent requests are unusual and leaves manufacturers weighing whether to absorb the costs to maintain a longer-term business relationship."

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: Walmart is playing with fire but retains a degree of leverage because it's such an enormous buyer and because it can source more products from other countries if Chinese suppliers don't cooperate.

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is now in the custody of the International Criminal Court following his arrest in Manila in connection with his deadly war on drugs during his presidency, the ICC confirmed Wednesday.

The big picture: The ICC Office of the Prosecutor alleged in a statement "there are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Duterte bears criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of murder" for the drugs crackdown.

• The ICC began its investigation in 2021 after thousands of people were killed in police drug operations in the Philippines.

Zoom in: Duterte is alleged to have committed the crimes from November 2011 through March 2019 "as part of a widespread and systematic attack directed against the civilian population," per the statement.

• The Office of the Prosecutor alleges that Duterte, as founder and head of the "Davao Death Squad," then mayor of Davao City and subsequently as the president of the Philippines, "is criminally responsible for the crime against humanity."
• The Office of the Prosecutor called the transfer of Duterte to the Netherlands, where he could face trial in the Hague, "a crucial step in our continuous work to ensure accountability for the victims of the most serious crimes under ICC jurisdiction."

What they're saying: Sara Duterte, the elder daughter of the former Philippines' and current vice president of the Southeast Asian nation, in a media statement called his being taken to the Hague following his arrest Tuesday "oppression and persecution."

What's next: The office is making preparations toward Duterte's initial appearance and subsequent judicial proceedings that will determine whether he stands trial.

Flashback: "I assume full responsibility," Duterte says of drug war

A Texas megachurch founder and former spiritual adviser to President Trump was indicted in Oklahoma Wednesday for alleged child sexual abuse crimes dating back to the 1980s.

The big picture: Robert Preston Morris, 63, who founded the Gateway Church in the Dallas suburb of Southlake, faces five counts of lewd or indecent acts with a child, according to the indictment.

Details: Morris is accused of committing the offenses on a girl from when she was 12 until she was 14.

• Prosecutors allege the offenses began in December 1982 when Morris was a traveling evangelist visiting the accuser's family in Hominy, Okla., and continued for the next four years, per a statement from the Oklahoma Attorney General's Office.
• An attorney for Morris, who resigned from his role as senior pastor last June following child molestation allegations, declined to comment to local media.

Zoom out: Morris founded the Gateway Church in 2000 and it now has an estimated 100,000 attendees.

• Trump appointed Morris to his evangelical advisory committee and named him as a spiritual adviser in 2016 when the Republican leader was a presidential candidate.
• Morris hosted Trump at Gateway Church during a 2020 roundtable event. A spokesperson for Trump emphasized to the New York Times after the allegations emerged last year that the pastor had no role in his re-election campaign.

What they're saying: "There can be no tolerance for those who sexually prey on children," said Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond in a statement. "This case is all the more despicable because the alleged perpetrator was a pastor who exploited his position.

• A Gateway Church spokesperson said in a media statement it's "aware of the actions being taken by the legal authorities in Oklahoma and are grateful for the work of the justice system in holding abusers accountable for their actions."
• It added the church was continuing to pray for Morris' accuser "and her family, for the members and staff of Gateway Church, and for all of those impacted by this terrible situation."

Go deeper: Southlake and Argyle churches seek new pastors

President Trump's tariffs that targeted Canada, Mexico and China before being expanded to all steel and aluminum imports have not only triggered trade wars, they're also leading to a "Boycott USA" global consumer backlash against U.S. goods.

The big picture: "Boycott USA" has spiked on Google in the past seven days, with four EU countries and Canada topping the search list and multiple countries have large Facebook groups dedicated to boycotting U.S. products.

Zoom in: One of the biggest regions for this pushback is Denmark, where Trump's talk of taking over its semi-autonomous territory Greenland has provoked anger.

• The Danish "Boycott goods from the U.S." Facebook page has nearly 73,000 members and Denmark had the second-highest search number of searches for "Boycott USA" this week after Luxembourg.
• In neighboring Sweden, the fourth-biggest "Boycott USA" search region on Google, a Facebook page that says using a U.S. platform is "the best weapon" in the drive against U.S. goods has nearly 80,000 members.
• France ranked at no.3 on Google for "Boycott USA" searches. The country's "BOYCOTT USA: Buy French and European!" Facebook page has more than 20,000 members.

Canada is another top backlash spot due to Trump making the closest ally of the U.S. a top tariff target and his desire to make the North American country the 51st state, ranking at no.5 on Google for "Boycott USA" searches.

• Several Facebook groups have emerged amid a drive for Canadian-made products and "Canada is not for sale" hats have taken off, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford among those wearing the headwear.
• Ford announced several measures against the tariffs, including canceling a $100-million contract with Musk's Starlink.
• The CEO of Jack Daniels' parent company said the Liquor Control Board of Ontario's decision to remove U.S.-made spirits from the province's shelves was "worse than a tariff."
• A survey of 3,310 respondents last month found 85% of Canadians plan to replace U.S. products or have already done so in the face of Trump's tariff threats. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points.
• The U.S. Travel Association warned of the impacts of tariffs, saying a 10% drop in Canadian travel could cause "$2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses." The number of Canadians taking road trips to the U.S. fell 23% last month compared to the previous year, per Statistics Canada.

Zoom out: Analysts have expressed concern that Tesla's plummeting sales may be linked to CEO Elon Musk's closeness to Trump as a mega-donor and in his role as senior adviser to the president, working with the administration's federal cost-cutting team DOGE — though it's too early to assess whether this is having a direct impact on the EV company.

• Trump said on Truth Social this week "Radical Left Lunatics, as they often do, are trying to illegally and collusively boycott Tesla."
• There was a very public boycott in classic music, from German violinist Christian Tetzlaff — who told the New York Times he was canceling a spring tour of the U.S. in protest at Trump's policies. A White House spokesperson told the NYT in response: "America first."

Meanwhile, Norwegian fuel firm Haltbakk Bunkers said it would no longer be a supplier due to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's treatment at the White House.

• CEO Gunnar Gran told Norwegian newspaper VG the company's action was "symbolic" because it doesn't have a fixed contract with the Navy.
• Representatives for the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: How Trump's tariffs will impact everyday Americans

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more details on Ontario's response and a screenshot of a post by provincial Premier Doug Ford.

President Trump is planning an unusual visit to the Justice Department on Friday to speak about his administration's plans on "restoring law and order," Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Trump's appearance will be the latest illustration of how he's taken a direct interest in the work of the DOJ, which he has stacked with allies while purging dozens of people who were deemed disloyal.

• Those dismissed from the department since Trump took office included officials who worked on the department's two criminal prosecutions of Trump between his presidencies.

Zoom out: Trump, who also had two state criminal indictments filed against him after leaving office, spent much of the 2024 campaign railing against what he called the "weaponization" of the justice system.

• After winning the 2024 election, Trump nominated Pam Bondi to be attorney general and Kash Patel to be FBI director, both of them longtime loyalists. Todd Blanche, one of Trump's personal attorneys, was named deputy attorney general.
• Trump last month said he had ordered the firings of U.S. attorneys appointed by his predecessor, Joe Biden. "We must 'clean house' IMMEDIATELY, and restore confidence. America's Golden Age must have a fair Justice System," Trump posted on Truth Social.

Most presidents historically have maintained at least the appearance of a Justice Department that operated independently of their political concerns.

• Trump accused Biden of using the DOJ to target him, but Biden said he made a point of not getting involved in Trump's felony cases. Biden didn't stop the department from prosecuting his son Hunter on gun and tax charges — but pardoned Hunter during the final weeks of his presidency.
• Trump has long been fixated on the DOJ. During his first term, he fired then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, whom he blasted for recusing himself from overseeing a special counsel's probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
• During the final days of his term, Trump clashed with then-Attorney General Bill Barr after Barr said the department had found no evidence of significant fraud in the 2020 election.

Bondi and Patel are expected to be present for Trump's visit on Friday, according to a person familiar with the plans.

What they're saying: "President Trump will visit the Department of Justice to give remarks on restoring law and order, removing violent criminals from our communities, and ending the weaponization of justice against Americans for their political leanings," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios in a statement.

• "President Trump's historic visit to the Department of Justice will signify another promise made and kept."

House Democrats are mounting a sudden push for a last-minute vote on an alternative to House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) bill to avert a federal government shutdown.

Why it matters: The effort dovetails with pressure some in the party are placing on key Senate Democrats to reject Johnson's 6-month stopgap bill and force Republicans to the table.

• The bill passed the House despite all but one House Democrat voting against it — but Republicans will need support from at least eight Senate Democrats for it to pass the upper chamber. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is already a "no" on the bill.
• "Our message to the Senate is ... stand with us," Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), the House minority whip, said at House Democrats' retreat on Wednesday.

Driving the news: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Clark and Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said Wednesday in a joint statement they would "strongly support" a four-week stopgap bill.

• "House Republicans should get back to Washington immediately so that we can take up a short-term measure, pass it on a bipartisan basis and avoid a Trump-inspired government shutdown," they said.
• House Democrats have demanded that any longer-term spending measure include language that constrains DOGE's ability to cut congressionally authorized spending.

State of play: Senate Democrats left a closed-door meeting Wednesday signaling that they will not provide the votes for the bill to overcome the chamber's 60-vote filibuster threshold.

• Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told reporters that Democrats are pressing for opportunities to amend the bill.
• "There are not the votes right now to pass it," he said.

What we're hearing: House Democrats have been advised to keep their schedules flexible in case they are called on short notice to vote on a replacement measure, multiple Democratic lawmakers told Axios.

• Said one person familiar with the matter: "Most House Democrats remain in the DC-area, and all have been advised to keep their schedules flexible so they can be present to vote on short notice."
• Many House Democrats are at their caucus' annual retreat in Leesburg, Virginia — roughly an hour drive to Capitol Hill.
• House Democrats' messaging arm is advising members to say on social media that they are willing to return to Capitol Hill this week to vote, according to guidance viewed by Axios.

Axios' Hans Nichols contributed reporting for this story.

The Trump Medicare innovation center plans to cancel a half dozen trials to change the way health providers are paid by the end of the year as it aligns itself with the goals of the Make America Healthy Again movement, multiple people familiar with the plans told Axios.

The big picture: Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation leadership said they want to focus on models that are likely to meet criteria for expansion and that promote the goals of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s public health agenda, said a person with knowledge who was granted anonymity to speak freely.

What they're saying: CMMI "is committed to testing — and eventually scaling — innovative payment models that meet the statutory goals of reducing program spending while maintaining or improving quality of care," a CMS spokesperson said.

• The center has completed a data-driven review of models based on their statutory mandate and identified some that will conclude as scheduled and others that should be terminated, the spokesperson said.
• CMS estimated the changes will save taxpayers almost $750 million, though it did not specify how.

State of play: The innovation center will end two payment models focused on alternative ways to pay for primary care — Making Care Primary and Primary Care First — and an experiment to encourage at-home dialysis and kidney transplants known as End-Stage Renal Disease Treatment Choices.

• "Primary care remains a foundational component of the Center's strategy," CMMI wrote in a fact sheet on Wednesday.
• "The early termination ... does not signal a retreat from the center's support of primary care providers, but rather a need to focus on different approaches that are consistent with the CMS Innovation Center's statutory mandate and produce savings."
• CMMI will also end the Maryland Total Cost of Care Model one year early. The model builds on an alternative payment structure Maryland has used for over a decade now in which hospitals in the state get a fixed amount of revenue from payers each year.
• Maryland has already been chosen to participate in a broader total cost of care model known as AHEAD starting in 2026. CMMI plans to continue that model, a source familiar told Axios.

CMMI will also not continue with two projects that had been announced but not yet started. One would offer $2 generic drugs to Medicare beneficiaries. A second aimed to incentivize drug manufacturers to complete confirmatory trials of accelerated approval drugs.

• The center said Wednesday that it is also considering options to reduce the size or make other changes to a model aimed at integrating care for children.
• An experiment to redesign care delivery in Vermont and one aimed at improving care for pregnant and postpartum Medicaid beneficiaries with opioid use disorder are already slated to conclude at the end of 2025.

Between the lines: CMMI said in a fact sheet that it has determined its other models can continue, either as-is or with modifications.

Context: The innovation center was created through the Affordable Care Act to test different ways to provide and reimburse for health services. It runs limited-time pilots aimed at improving patient care and lowering costs, with a goal of adapting successful policies for Medicare and Medicaid as a whole.

• The center currently operates 23 models. CMMI gets $10 billion in mandatory funding each decade to develop, test and evaluate different experiments.

Some of the models set for cancellation have not yet shown to improve care or decrease costs.

• The model aimed at improving renal disease care has not affected health outcomes or Medicare spending, per its latest evaluation.
• Primary Care First, which tests performance-based payment for advanced primary care services, has had "minimal effects on hospitalizations and Medicare expenditures," according to its most recent evaluation, though the report says that's to be expected at the model's current stage.

Yes, but: The Maryland Total Cost of Care Model saved a net $689 million for Medicare in its first three years and reduced hospital admissions.

Reality check: It's common for a new administration to end or modify some Medicare payment projects early in its term.

• But the back-and-forth can make it hard for providers to fully invest in participating in these payment experiments.

What we're watching: The innovation center plans to announce a new strategy "based on guiding principles to make Americans healthier by preventing disease through evidence-based practices, empowering people with information to make better decisions, and driving choice and competition," the CMS spokesperson said.

President Trump is facing increasing headwinds from everyday Americans when it comes to his economic policies, which have sent markets tumbling and sparked worries of a recession.

Why it matters: Trump's re-election campaign hinged on lowering prices, but voters are beginning to notice his policies — from a trade war with the U.S.' closes trading partners to mass deportations — are expected to do the opposite.

The latest: A New CNN/SSRS poll out Wednesday found that only 45% of 1,206 Americans surveyed approved of Trump's job as president so far, with 54% disapproving. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

• Even more bruising, 56% of voters disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy — higher than at any point during his first term, per CNN.
• 61% of people surveyed said they disapproved of Trump's handling of tariffs, while 52% said they disapproved of his handling of the federal budget.

Zoom in: A new Emerson College poll of 1,000 registered voters out Tuesday found Trump's disapproval rating at 45%, two points higher than it was just a week before, when the same poll was conducted. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

• Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement that the poll results showed Trump's "initial 'honeymoon phase' seems to be coming to an end.'"
• Trump's "true challenge will be how voters perceive their financial future," he added, noting that voters who "disapprove of his handling of the economy, believe tariffs will hurt economic growth, and are skeptical of his cryptocurrency policy."

The big picture: The ramifications of Trump's policies are already rippling outwards and impacting businesses and communities.

• The National Federation of Independent Business's uncertainty index for small businesses rose to it's second-highest reading ever last month since the 1980s, and many small businesses report raising prices, MarketWatch reported.
• In fact, a slew of small business owners have spoken out about the detrimental impacts Trump's tariffs will have on their ability to maintain their businesses.
• Delta, Southwest and American airlines all warned this week that their first-quarter revenue or earnings forecasts will fall below expectations due to weaker consumer demand.

Our thought bubble, from Axios' Ben Berkowitz: Investors are beginning to realize the first-term "Trump put" — the notion that he'd change policy if markets reacted negatively — isn't in evidence this time around.

• There's a greater willingness by his team to let whatever happens happen, which is an adjustment to past Trump economic practice that's coming as a shock to some people.

Go deeper: The Trump bump becomes a Trump slump

February finally brought a bit of inflation relief following a stretch of elevated readings — a sign that the underlying backdrop for the economy is one of diminishing price pressures.

Why it matters: Disinflation returned in February after months of data that appeared to show progress had stalled. But that relief could be fleeting if widening trade wars reignite higher costs.

• This is the conundrum for keeping tabs on the Trump economy. Even quick-turn monthly data like the Consumer Price Index looks stale against a rapidly shifting policy backdrop.
• Still, further tariffs will happen with inflation on a downward trajectory — which beats the alternative.

State of play: The data "confirms that despite the idiosyncratic price bumpiness, economic fundamentals were and remain disinflationary," EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco wrote in a note.

• "Looking ahead, however, tariffs, confusion around trade policy and tighter immigration policy mean the risks to inflation are [tilted] to the upside."

By the numbers: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month, after a 0.5% spike in January. Over the 12 months through February, CPI rose 2.8% — the lowest since November, when inflation data started to heat up.

• Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose at a similar monthly pace, with a 3.1% gain in the year ending in February. That was the lowest since the inflation shock took off nearly four years ago.

Between the lines: There was a sliver of good news for consumers in the supermarket. Grocery prices overall were flat last month, especially if you shop anywhere other than the egg aisle.

• Overall food at home prices were flat, and dairy, fruit, and vegetable prices were down.
• That was enough to offset another huge jump in egg prices, which were up 10% in February. Over the past year, prices are up 59%.

The big picture: The Federal Reserve wants proof that inflation is moving "sustainably" lower, as chair Jerome Powell said in a speech last week.

• Inflation remains too high for the Fed's comfort. Over the last three months, core inflation is up an annualized 3.6%, down a bit from 3.8% in January, but well above its 2% target.

What to watch: The Fed is assessing how White House policy uncertainty will ripple across the economy — including President Trump's stop-and-start tariff policies that have roiled the stock market and prompted economic growth fears.

• The Fed will likely keep rates on hold when its two-day policy meeting concludes next week.
• Bond yields spiked following the CPI data, and futures now put nearly 60% odds on a rate cut in June, per CME's FedWatch tool, up slightly from Tuesday. Odds of at least two rate cuts by year-end top 88%.

What they're saying: "[Wednesday's] CPI report shows inflation is declining and the economy is moving in the right direction under President Trump," said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in a statement.

About 1 in 15 U.S. adults has been on scene at a mass shooting, a new University of Colorado Boulder study published in JAMA Network Open reveals.

Why it matters: The study underscores the pervasiveness of gun violence in the U.S. and the increasing likelihood that everyday Americans could be caught in the crossfire.

The big picture: "Our findings lend credence to the idea of a 'mass shooting generation,'" senior author David Pyrooz said in a statement.

• "People who grew up in the aftermath of Columbine have these unique experiences that are really distinguishable from the older population," he said.

By the numbers: About 7% of 10,000 U.S. adults surveyed online in January 2024 said they had been present at a mass shooting — defined as an incident where four or more people were shot.

• 2% reported being injured, whether by gunfire, by shrapnel or in the chaos of people fleeing.
• Among those uninjured, about 75% said they suffered psychological distress.
• More than half of those who had witnessed a mass shooting said it happened within the last decade.

Between the lines: Gen Z and men were at the highest risk, the study found.

• And for most survivors, the violence hit close to home. More than three-fourths of mass shootings took place in their own communities.

Zoom in: Colorado has experienced at least 61 mass shootings in the last 10 years, killing 82 people and injuring 246, according to data on the state health department's website.

• In 2023 alone, there were 16 mass shootings in the state — the highest in at least a decade, according to the Gun Violence Archive.
• Data for 2024 is not readily available.

What they're saying: "It's not a question of if one will occur in your community anymore, but when," Pyrooz said. "We need to have stronger systems in place to care for people in the aftermath of this tragic violence."

The other side: Despite the grim reality, mass shootings actually declined nationwide last year — dropping nearly 25% from 2023.

• The U.S. reported 503 mass shootings in 2024, down from 659 the year before, per the Gun Violence Archive.
• The decrease could be attributable to the waning social and economic upheavals set off by the coronavirus pandemic, Giffords Law Center's research director Kelly Drane told Axios last year.

What we're watching: Colorado lawmakers are considering a controversial gun control bill that would restrict the sale of most semiautomatic firearms, like the one used by the Boulder King Soopers shooter in 2021.

• The legislation — sponsored by Sen. Tom Sullivan, a Centennial Democrat whose son was killed in the 2012 Aurora theater shooting — has been amended more than a dozen times, Colorado Politics reports.

Senate Democrats left a private meeting Wednesday saying there aren't enough votes to advance the short-term funding bill that passed the House on Tuesday.

Why it matters: This raises the chances of a government shutdown this weekend. Democrats are in the unusual position of being willing to risk a shutdown to negotiate a better deal with Republicans.

• "Democrats had nothing to do with this bill. And we want an opportunity to get an amendment vote or two. So that's what we are insisting on to vote for cloture," Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told reporters after the meeting.
• "There are not the votes right now to pass it," Kaine said.
• Republicans will need at least eight Senate Dems to vote for the bill to move it forward, as 60 votes are needed to advance most Senate legislation.

Zoom in: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spent weeks pushing his caucus to keep their powder dry on a shutdown. He privately counseled them that advocating for a shutdown was bad politics for Democrats.

• But he has also insisted that any legislation to keep the government open must be done in a bipartisan manner. The bill passed by the House on Tuesday was written exclusively by Republicans.
• Schumer is balancing his deep distaste for a shutdown against external pressure from the grassroots and Democratic voters to do more to stand up to President Trump.

President Trump's letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was delivered on Wednesday by a senior adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump said on Thursday that he sent a letter to Khamenei the day before, proposing direct negotiations between the countries on a new nuclear deal.

• Iran said for several days that they haven't received such a letter.

Behind the scenes: According to a source familiar, Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff visited Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and met with Emirati President Mohammed Bin Zayed.

• The source said Witkoff gave the letter to the Emiratis so they could deliver it to the Iranians.
• An Emirati official declined to comment. The White House and the State Department didn't immediately respond to questions.

What they are saying: Emirati diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash met with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi this afternoon, Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei said.

• Gargash carried the letter from Trump to Khamenei.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) announced Wednesday that she won't seek reelection in 2026, further complicating Democrats' efforts to win back a majority.

Why it matters: Senate Democrats are already defending open seats in the battleground states of Michigan and Minnesota. Adding New Hampshire to the list makes reclaiming a majority an even tougher proposition.

• "Today, after careful consideration, I am announcing that I have made the difficult decision not to seek reelection to the Senate in 2026," Shaheen said in a video posted on X.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

CIA director John Ratcliffe spoke by phone Tuesday with the head of the Russian foreign intelligence agency (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin, a source familiar with the call confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: This was the first call between the spy chiefs since President Trump assumed office. It came a day after Ukraine endorsed a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and U.S. officials said the onus was now on Russia.

• The source said the purpose of the call was to establish a line of communication between Ratcliffe and Naryshkin.
• It is also part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to engage with Russia and improve relations with Moscow.

The big picture: The call was one of several conversations between U.S. and Russian officials expected to take place over the next few days.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. would brief Russia on Wednesday about the talks with the Ukrainians and the ceasefire proposal. "If they say 'no' it will tell us a lot," Rubio said.
• Rubio was speaking on a his flight to a G7 meeting in Canada from Saudi Arabia, where he and national security adviser Mike Waltz met with Ukrainian officials on Tuesday.
• Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow on Thursday to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The other side: The Kremlin stressed on Wednesday it wants to hear directly from the U.S. before commenting on whether it agrees to the ceasefire.

• The Kremlin said it expects Rubio and Waltz to brief their Russian counterparts, and didn't rule out a Trump-Putin call.

The latest: Russian news agencies first reported on Wedneday's call between the spy chiefs, quoting a statement from the SVR.

• According to the statement, Naryshkin and Ratcliffe discussed cooperation between the two intelligence services "in areas of common interest and the resolution of crisis situations."
• The SVR said the two spy chiefs agreed "to maintain regular contacts...with the aim of helping to ensure international stability and security, as well as reducing confrontation in relations between Moscow and Washington."
• The CIA has not commented on the call.

State of play: The Trump administration restored arms shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv endorsed the ceasefire proposal.

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Wednesday he wants to use the 30-day ceasefire to draft a peace agreement.
• After weeks of pressuring Ukraine, U.S. officials now say the ball is now in Russia's court.

States are warning that huge headaches are on the way as a wave of fired federal workers try to file for unemployment insurance.

Why it matters: Tens of thousands of probationary workers were abruptly fired across multiple federal agencies, without severance. Many may struggle financially, with broader ripple effects on local economies.

• Unemployment insurance can be a lifeline.

Where it stands: State attorneys general laid out the situation in a lawsuit over the firings filed last week.

• Because the firings happened without any advance notice and in a "chaotic" manner, they're exacerbating strains on state unemployment systems, per the lawsuit.
• States are getting inundated with claims. Maryland now sees 30 to 60 new claims every day. In the first quarter of last year, the state received only 189 jobless claims for federal workers.
• The firings "impose a significant strain" on the Maryland department's resources, per the lawsuit. The effects will stretch beyond unemployment claims to other areas of state business, the lawsuit warns.

The big picture: State agencies are underfunded and underresourced, particularly at this moment when overall joblessness is low, says Michele Evermore, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance, who worked on unemployment insurance in the Biden administration.

How it works: The unemployment process for federal workers works differently than the private sector, where employers pay into the system through a payroll tax.

• The federal government doesn't pay up until firings happen, and is then responsible for reimbursing states and providing agencies with verification on wages and other information, like the reason for "separation."
• Since agencies are giving different reasons for the firings — some citing performance and others restructuring — the unemployment investigators will have to look deeply into each claim, per the lawsuit. That will be a time-consuming process.

Between the lines: Ordinarily, when there are dismissals on a wide scale, they proceed in an orderly way, with advance notice given to states. That's not what happened here.

• Evermore said many state agencies aren't hearing back from federal agencies as they investigate claims: "This is where the real hold-up is."

For example: Jacob Bushno, a veteran in southern Illinois fired from his job at the U.S. Forest Service on Feb. 18, filed for unemployment right away.

• The state agency is still investigating his claim, with an interview set for Wednesday. The battle to get unemployment insurance, on top of the abrupt firing, has "been another struggle," Bushno tells Axios.

For the record: When asked for comment about the status of these workers, the White House did not address the specific situation. Instead deputy press secretary Harrison Fields said the president has a mandate to uproot "waste, fraud, and abuse."

• "The personal financial situation of every American is top of mind for the President, which is why he's working to cut regulations, reshore jobs, lower taxes, and make government more efficient."

What to watch: We're still at the beginning stages here. Observers expect unemployment claims to pick up in the coming weeks, but for now, some workers are waiting to see if they wind up getting their jobs back.

Antisemitic conspiracy theories are flooding America's most popular pro-Trump podcasts, exposing deep political and moral fissures at the heart of the new MAGA coalition.

Why it matters: At a moment of record-high antisemitism in the U.S., an astonishing split screen has emerged between the Trump administration and prominent influencers that reliably spread MAGA's message.

• President Trump has prioritized cracking down on antisemitism and criticism of Israel on college campuses, including by revoking federal funding and arresting pro-Palestinian activists.
• But many of the podcasts Trump appeared on during the campaign are simultaneously platforming far-right provocateurs who are openly hostile toward Israel and use racist tropes about Jewish influence.

Driving the news: Conspiracy theories about Israel, Jeffrey Epstein and Jewish elites dominated four MAGA-friendly podcasts last week that had previously hosted Trump. All came out within the same 48-hour period.

• Candace Owens, a pro-Trump lightning rod who left The Daily Wire last year over her embrace of antisemitic rhetoric, was a guest on "This Past Weekend with Theo Von."
• Andrew Tate, the misogynist influencer accused of sex trafficking and rape in Romania, appeared on the Nelk Boys' "Full Send" podcast and Patrick Bet David's "PBD Podcast." He also attended UFC 313 in Las Vegas, where he was welcomed by UFC president and Trump ally Dana White.
• Ian Carroll, an independent researcher who has suggested Israel was involved in 9/11, spent nearly three hours on the biggest platform of all — "The Joe Rogan Experience."

Together, the conversations were broadcast to tens of millions of listeners on Spotify, YouTube and other platforms.

The big picture: Both sides of the MAGA divide agree that last week marked an inflection point in the mainstreaming of antisemitism on the so-called New Right.

• "For the first time in my lifetime, a lot of successful Jewish friends called me worried this week — names we all know — asking what is going to happen as these libels re-enter the mainstream, and are shared by millions," Palantir co-founder and Trump ally Joe Lonsdale wrote on X.
• "We live now in a world where the red pill has gone mainstream," white nationalist Nick Fuentes gleefully declared on his show, rattling off a list of other personalities — including rapper Ye — who are now openly antisemitic.

Between the lines: Alternative media and "manosphere" influencers helped fuel Trump's election by bringing millions of politically disengaged Americans — especially young men — off the sidelines.

• For many young Americans, their political awakening is coinciding with the stunning normalization of antisemitic hate across platforms they consume.
• "For the first time that we've seen, there's a higher propensity for young people to express intense antisemitism versus the older generation," Anti-Defamation League CEO Jonathan Greenblatt told Axios.
• "We're in a moment which doesn't have precedent," he warned, urging Trump and other "responsible" leaders to call out the "radicals who are in orbit of this movement."

What they're saying: "There is no greater friend to the Jewish community than President Trump, who is leading the charge to combat anti-Semitism at home and abroad," White House spokesman Harrison Fields told Axios in a statement, pointing to Trump's pro-Israel policies in his first term.

• "In just his first month in office, President Trump signed an Executive Order combatting anti-Semitism, negotiated a cease fire in Gaza, and successfully returned American and Israeli hostages to their families."

The intrigue: MAGA's growing divide over antisemitism has parallels to the movement's internecine feud over H1-B visas that exploded on X in December.

• Elements of the base that support Christian white nationalism clashed with Trump's Silicon Valley boosters, including Elon Musk, over hiring highly skilled foreign workers from countries like India.
• In both cases, the Trump administration quietly has sought to keep extremists at arm's length and away from policymaking. But the pressure from MAGA's grassroots is undeniable.

The bottom line: Some conservatives, especially the staunch Israel supporters who make up the foundation of the Republican Party, are fighting to prevent extremists from hijacking the president's base.

• "The embrace by so many prominent voices of demented, conspiratorial, anti-Jewish voices is one of the saddest, most alarming events in my lifetime," The Daily Wire co-founder Jeremy Boreing, a leader in conservative media, wrote on X.
• "Do not let the times cost you your soul," he warned.

Top corporate leaders' boost of economic exuberance that followed the November elections has receded, according to a new survey of major-company CEOs obtained exclusively by Axios.

Why it matters: The data from the Business Roundtable is the latest sign that a volatile policy environment is dampening the outlook in Corporate America — and these survey results were mostly collected before last week's on-then-off tariffs and ensuing stock market volatility.

• President Trump met with BRT members — the CEOs of America's largest companies — yesterday afternoon.

By the numbers: The group's economic outlook index fell 7 points from its December release. At 84, the level is now about the same as it was in the first half of last year and in line with its historical average, implying steady overall growth ahead.

• The survey results dipped most for hiring expectations, with that sub-index falling 13 points to 54 — barely in expansion mode.
• The CEOs expect 2.5% GDP growth this year — in line with results over the last few years.
• Responses were collected between Feb. 19 and March 7, with 150 CEO's of major U.S. companies participating. President Trump implemented 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4 before relaxing them two days later.

What they're saying: "The modest dip," said BRT CEO Joshua Bolten, "is tied to several factors, including signs of economic headwinds and an atmosphere of uncertainty in Washington."

• Bolten added that the Trump administration "can help turn the tide" by moving quickly on extending 2017 tax reforms, scaling back regulations, reforming permitting, and "avoiding the use of overly-broad, long-lasting tariffs."
• "The survey results signal that our members are cautious about the next six months, but also see opportunities to improve growth," Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins, the BRT's chair, said.

The bottom line: Before the latest wave of volatility and emergence of recession fears, America's most important corporate decision-makers were becoming more wary of the growth outlook.

As Elon Musk's slash-and-burn budget cuts hit Republican and Democratic areas alike, some GOP lawmakers are privately back-channeling with the Trump administration to try to shield their constituents from the fallout.

Why it matters: Republicans have largely cheered on DOGE in public — but behind the scenes, many of President Trump's allies fear potential political backlash to the cuts, and are scrambling to limit the damage.

• Of the 60 congressional districts with the most federal workers, a slight majority are represented by Republicans, Axios previously reported.

What we're hearing: Several House Republicans told Axios they have succeeded in — or at least contributed to — getting DOGE to reverse certain cuts through private back-channeling.

• Rep. Cliff Bentz (R-Ore.) said he raised concerns about job cuts at the Bonneville Power Administration: "Whether it was my remarks back to DOGE or somebody else's, it got fixed. They ... hired back 30 people."
• Said Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa): "When we have heard from constituents who have been directly impacted by this in a way that harmed them, I have reached out directly to the agencies and teams."
• Nunn cited Agriculture Department cuts that "could ... have impacted farmers" in his district, telling Axios he "talked to the administration on it, they recognized it, they heard it, and we got those positions reinstated."

State of play: Musk's DOGE has implemented abrupt, sweeping changes across the federal government through mass workforce purges and the dismantling of entire programs and agencies.

• The moves have drawn significant legal pushback, but Musk wants DOGE to continue to grow, saying Monday on Fox Business' "Kudlow" show that he aims to roughly double DOGE's size.
• GOP lawmakers also have faced backlash at town halls in their districts over the DOGE cuts, prompting House Republicans' campaign chief to encourage a shift from in-person to virtual town halls.

Zoom out: Other Republicans have gone public with their concerns. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said in a local media interview that Tinker Air Force Base in his state "cannot operate if we lose 600 civilian employees there."

• He also decried cuts to another Oklahoma military installation, McAlester Ammunition Plant: "We will not be able to keep aircraft in the air long-term for the Air Force. That is really important for us to be able to have."
• Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) this week praised DOGE for reversing cuts to his district: "After working closely with DOGE and the administration, I am thrilled to announce that common sense has prevailed."

The other side: Democratic lawmakers — many of whom have been vehemently opposed to the DOGE cuts — complain that they lack the same pipeline to voice their concerns that their Republican counterparts enjoy.

• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told Axios: "I have not heard of any Democrats getting that kind of treatment. I think Tom Cole, obviously, has better connections with the oligarchs than we do."
• "I'm trying to help people, but so far I've not come with any back channel to Donald Trump," said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), whose district in the D.C. suburbs has one of the largest concentrations of federal workers.

The bottom line: "That is no way to run a government," Huffman said. "That is, sort of, the ultimate partisan crony capitalism ... but apparently that's what we've come to these days."

Go deeper: Musk plans to double DOGE staff amid federal government cuts

Donald Trump Jr. is endorsing Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor, following in his father's footsteps and cementing Donalds as the frontrunner over possible contender Casey DeSantis, the state's first lady.

Why it matters: The move by Trump Jr. — a key player in MAGA media — comes after a presidential race in which Donalds was a constant pro-Trump presence on the campaign trail.

• Florida's 2026 race is loaded with potential intrigue: It's likely to be a show of the Trump machine's power in Florida, where DeSantis' husband, Ron, is the term-limited governor who briefly was Donald Trump's rival in the 2024 GOP primary.

Zoom in: Trump Jr., 47, hosts an influential podcast, "Triggered," a GenX pillar of MAGA's media universe. He's a trusted political adviser to his dad.

• President Trump pre-endorsed Donalds five days before the congressman's Feb. 25 announcement on Sean Hannity's show on Fox News.
• Donalds' campaign is run by Trump campaign vets: Tony Fabrizio (pollster for both Trump and Donalds), Danielle Alvarez (senior adviser for both campaigns), and adviser Ryan Smith (consultant for the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC in 2024).

By the numbers: A recent Fabrizio poll of likely GOP primary voters in Florida showed Donalds with a small lead over Casey DeSantis, 34%-30%.

• After they were told the governor would endorse his wife, she marginally led Donalds. But the Trump effect was bigger: When respondents were told about Trump's endorsement, Donalds' lead over DeSantis grew to 45%-23%.

The bottom line: Donalds led Casey DeSantis 38%-28% when voters were informed of both endorsements — an indication that Trump's endorsement had more sway that Ron DeSantis'.

• The poll also showed that Vice President Vance would beat Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary by 14 percentage points.
• And as Axios first reported, the same poll indicated former Rep. Matt Gaetz would have a big lead in a hypothetical matchup against Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, Gov. DeSantis' former chief of staff.

The big picture: During the past week, the Donalds campaign strategically leaked the poll results to send a message: Florida is Trump Country, and the DeSantis stewardship in Tallahassee has a 2026 expiration date.

• Registered Republicans vastly outnumber registered Democrats in Florida, so the victors in statewide GOP primaries are heavy favorites to win office.

What they're saying: "My friend Byron Donalds is a great patriot and has my full endorsement to serve as Florida's next governor," Trump Jr. said in a statement provided first to Axios.

• "Byron is a fighter and a true champion for our America First movement. He will be a great leader for Florida and he will fight alongside my father to make America greater than ever before!"

Flashback: President Trump and Ron DeSantis had a falling out after the governor decided to run against him for president in 2024.

• DeSantis quickly made amends after he was walloped in Iowa, but his annoyance with Donalds (who endorsed Trump early on over the governor) erupted the day before Donalds announced his bid for governor.
• "You got a guy like Byron, he just hasn't been a part of any of the victories that we've had here over the left over these last years. He's just not been a part of it," DeSantis said at press conference.
• Said a DeSantis confidant: "If Byron thinks all this will scare Casey out of the race, it's not going to work. It might have the opposite effect."

Trump calls DeSantis for advice on occasion and likes golfing with the governor.

• To try to keep Trump on the sidelines in the governor's race, Ron and Casey DeSantis golfed with Trump two weekends ago at the president's West Palm Beach course.
• It's unclear what promises, if any, Trump made.