Last year was Earth's warmest on record, eclipsing 2023's record and for the first time exceeding the Paris target of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, the Copernicus Climate Change Service announced Thursday.

Why it matters: While climate scientists don't put too much stock into an individual year's record, the long-term trend is toward more rapid warming, and it is not entirely clear why 2024 was so hot — and what it portends.

Zoom in: Last year was the hottest seen in instrument record-keeping, but also much longer before that.

• In fact, as with 2023, the year was very likely the hottest in at least 125,000 years.
• Some daily global average temperatures, as measured using increasingly precise computer model data, exceeded 2°C above preindustrial levels — flirting with another temperature target in the Paris Climate Agreement.

According to Copernicus, an agency of the European Commission, each year in the last decade has been one of the 10 hottest on record.

• Data from U.S. centers, such as NOAA and NASA, show similar results. (Their final 2024 data comes out Friday.)
• Global average surface temperatures in 2024 were about 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, Copernicus found, and about 0.12°C (.22°F) above 2023's record high.

Yes, but: The Paris Agreement's most stringent temperature target of holding warming to 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels refers to a long-term, 20-to-30-year average, rather than a single year or two.

• Still, 2024 shows the world is already exceeding the barrier that diplomats set at the Paris climate summit in 2015, and in fact the average of 2023 and 2024 falls above the 1.5°C threshold, Copernicus said.
• Studies show that if warming exceeds 1.5°C relative to preindustrial levels, the odds of potentially catastrophic impacts, such as the shutting of key ocean currents and melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, would increase considerably.
• Regarding exceeding the 1.5°C marker, Copernicus' news release stated: "Global temperatures are rising beyond what modern humans have ever experienced."

What they're saying: "Humanity is in charge of its own destiny but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence," said Carlo Buontempo, the Copernicus Climate Change Service's director.

• "The future is in our hands — swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate."

Between the lines: One of the most impactful records seen during 2024 was unusually high amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere, at about 5% above the 1991-2020 average, beating previous highs.

• Extreme heat and high humidity is a deadly combination, and record large swaths of the globe saw "strong" to "extreme heat stress," per Copernicus' data.
• The high water vapor content in the atmosphere also helped contribute to extreme precipitation events, and to rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes Helene and Milton.

The intrigue: Climate scientists are still investigating why 2024, which didn't feature a planet-warming El Niño event on top of human-caused climate change, vaulted above 2023 on the list of hottest years.

• Multiple studies have been published on this topic, and the possibility that the climate has shifted into a new phase of more rapid warming for reasons that are not yet completely clear is unnervingly still on the table.

What's next: Along with NOAA's and NASA's climate reports on Friday will come a new report on trends in ocean heat content.

• All of it is likely to show evidence of a planet heating faster and to record levels.

Raging wildfires tearing through Los Angeles County have destroyed homes, neighborhoods and iconic landmarks, and killed at least five people.

Why it matters: Some of the most historic structures in the U.S. were completely wiped out.

The big picture: The number of structures destroyed or damaged by the fires is believed to number "in the thousands," Los Angeles City Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a briefing Thursday, adding that the Palisades Fire is "one of the most destructive natural disasters in the history of Los Angeles."

Zoom in: Here's which landmarks are under threat:

Altadena's Bunny Museum

The museum burned to the ground, according to the museum's Instagram account.

Eames House

The 20th century architectural landmark was safe from the fires as ofJan. 8, per the house's Instagram.

Gamble House

The property is "safe for now!!" the house's Instagram account said.

The Getty Villa

The world-famous art museum has so far remained safe, according to a Jan. 8 announcement on its website, although a small brush fire burned trees and vegetation on the property.

The Hollywood Sign

The Sunset Fire in Hollywood Hills area caused rumors about the status of the Hollywood sign to circulate on social media (as well as AI-generated photos), but the sign was undamaged as of Thursday evening.

The Hollywood Bowl

The Hollywood Bowl was impacted by evacuation orders due to the Sunset Fire on Wednesday evening, which the amphitheater and park said on X lifted Thursday morning.

Moonshadows

The owners of Moonshadows reposted footage on Instagram reporting that the fire completely destroyed the iconic restaurant and bar.

Palisades Charter High School

Much of the school — classrooms, tennis courts, the baseball field, and bungalows — all burned in the fire, according to The New York Times. As the school was closed for winter break, few people had to be evacuated, BBC reported.

Palisades Elementary Charter School

The fires also caused "significant damage" to the elementary school, per multiple reports.

Palisades Village

Rick Caruso, owner of the Palisades Village mall, told Los Angeles Times that several homes around the shopping center were "fully engulfed" in flames, and that his shopping center too suffered damage.

The Pasadena Jewish Temple and Center

The temple and Jewish center's campus was "destroyed" by the Eaton Fire, the center said on Facebook.

Reel Inn

Staff at the Pacific Coast Highway restaurant are "unsure what will be left" after flames from the Palisades Fire swept the building, per an Instagram post Wednesday.

Theatre Palisades, Pierson Playhouse

"Our beloved Pierson Playhouse is gone, but the heart of Theatre Palisades beats on. We will rise again," Pierson Playhouse, the organization said on Facebook on Jan. 8 after the Palisades Fire struck.

Topanga Ranch Motel

California State Parks said in a statement that the Topanga Ranch Hotel, once owned by William Randolph Hearst, was also destroyed by the blaze.

Villa Aurora and the Thomas Mann House

Villa Aurora, a historic artists' residence, was partially harmed, representatives said in a statement, though the full extent of the damage was unclear as of Thursday evening.

• "There are first indications that parts of Villa Aurora were able to withstand the destructive fires. However, the building continues to be in the danger zone," the representatives write. The Thomas Mann House, which is on the Villa Aurora property, was undamaged as of Thursday.

Villa de Leon

The status of the mansion — featured in music videos by Beyoncé, Lady Gaga, and more —was not immediately clear as of Thursday evening

• But video footage captured showed that the grounds engulfed in flames from the Palisades Fire.

Will Rogers's Historic Estate

Will Rogers' historic house, along with several other Will Rogers State Park structures, were destroyed, according to California State Parks.

More from Axios:

• How to help victims of the Los Angeles fires
• LA's wildfires sparked by rare collision of climate factors
• Wildfires and hurricanes could make parts of U.S. uninsurable

Macy's is closing 66 stores as part of its "A Bold New Chapter" plan, with liquidation sales set to start in January, the retailer confirmed to Axios Thursday.

Why it matters: The struggling department store chain is getting smaller as it continues to deal with declining sales.

• Macy's said last February that it planned to shutter 150 stores by the end of 2026 — about a third of its locations.
• The retailer also said it is leaning into its high-end brands and plans to invest in its "350 go-forward Macy's locations."
• Tony Spring, Macy's chair and CEO, said in a statement the company is closing underproductive stores "to allow us to focus our resources and prioritize investments in our go–forward stores."

The big picture: The department store sector has been reeling for years, struggling to compete with nimbler big-box chains, fast-fashion retailers and digital competitors.

• The industry has seen the bankruptcies of stalwart chains such as Sears, JCPenney and Neiman Marcus.
• Kohl's announced Thursday that it was closing 27 stores by April.

Flashback: In early 2020 before the pandemic, Macy's Inc., which includes Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, said it would close around 125 stores, a fifth of locations, as part of a three-year plan.

• Macy's fell short of its target and closed 80 namesake stores.
• Last year, it closed another five stores.

Macy's liquidation closing sales

State of play: Macy's confirmed to Axios that clearance sales will begin in January and will run for approximately 8–12 weeks for full-line and small-format stores.

• For most furniture galleries and free-standing Backstage stores, clearance sales will begin in February and will run for approximately six weeks.

Macy's stores closing list 2025

Zoom in: Macy's typically announces closings after the holiday shopping season, which has been the case in recent years, including in January 2023 and January 2024.

• Stores slated to close include stand-alone Backstage stores, Market by Macy's small format stores, department stores and furniture stores.

Arizona Macy's store closure

• Mesa: Superstition Springs Center, 6535 E Southern Ave.

California Macy's closing stores

• Chula Vista: Otay Ranch Town Center, 2015 Birch Road
• Citrus Heights: Sunrise Mall, 6000 Sunrise Mall
• Corte Madera: Village at Corte Madera, 1400 Redwood Highway
• Los Angeles: Downtown LA Plaza, 750 W 7th St.
• Newark: NewPark Mall, 200 Newpark Mall
• San Diego: Mission Valley Home, 1555 Camino De La Reina
• San Mateo Hillsdale Furniture: 2838 South El Camino
• Westminster: Westminster Mall, 300 Westminster Mall

Colorado Macy's closing stores

• Centennial Southglenn Furniture: 6797 South Vine Street (already closed)
• Denver: The Shops at Northfield, 8298 E Northfield Blvd

Macy's Florida closing stores

• Altamonte Springs Furniture: 820 West Town Parkway
• Boca Raton Furniture: 9339 Glades Rd (already closed)
• Boynton Beach: Boynton Beach Mall, 801 N Congress Ave
• Fort Lauderdale Furniture: 4501 N. Federal Highway
• Pembroke Pines Furniture: 13640 Pines Blvd.
• Sarasota: Westfield Siesta Key, former Southgate Mall, 3501 S Tamiami Trail
• South Dade Furniture: 13251 South Dixie Highway (already closed)
• Tampa: West Shore Plaza, 298 Westshore Plaza

Georgia Macy's closing stores

• Duluth Furniture: Gwinnett Furniture, 3360 Ventura Parkway
• Duluth: Gwinnett Place Mall, 2100 Pleasant Hill Road
• Suwanee Market by Macy's: Johns Creek Town Center, 3630 Peachtree Parkway

Idaho Macy's closing store

• Coeur d'Alene: Silver Lake Mall, 200 W Hanley Ave.

Illinois Macy's store closure

• Springfield: White Oaks Mall, 104 White Oaks Mall

Louisiana Macy's closing store

• Lafayette: Acadiana Mall, 5733 Johnston St.

Macy's Maryland stores closing

• Bel Air: Harford Mall, 600 Baltimore Pike
• Baltimore: Security Square Mall, 6901 Security Blvd.

Macy's Massachusetts store closure

• Kingston: Kingston Collection, 101 Kingston Collection Way

Michigan Macy's closing stores

• Flint: Genesee Valley Center, 4600 Miller Road
• Sterling Heights: Lakeside Mall, 14200 Lakeside Circle
• Traverse City: Grand Traverse Mall, 3400 S Airport Road W
• Troy: Oakland Mall, 500 W 14 Mile Road

Minnesota closing Macy's stores

• Burnsville: Burnsville Center, 14251 Burnhaven Drive
• Maplewood: Maplewood Mall, 3001 White Bear Ave.

Missouri Macy's closing stores

• Kansas City: Metro North Mall, 400 NW Barry Road
• St. Louis: South County Center, 10 S County Center Way

Macy's New Jersey store closing

• West Orange: Backstage Essex Green Shopping Center, 495 Prospect Avenue West

Macy's New York closings

• Brooklyn Downtown: 422 Fulton St.
• Brooklyn: Backstage Sheepshead Bay: 2027 Emmons Ave.
• Bronx: Backstage Fordham Place, 404 East Fordham Road
• Elmhurst: Backstage Queens Place, 88-01 Queens Blvd.
• Huntington: Melville Mall, 834 Walt Whitman Road
• New Hyde Park: Backstage Lake Success, 1526 Union Turnpike
• Massapequa: Sunrise Mall, 400 Sunrise Mall
• Rochester: Greece Ridge Center, 397 Greece Ridge Center
• Staten Island Furniture: 98 Richmond Hill Road

Ohio Macy's closing stores

• Beavertown: Fairfield Commons, 2727 Fairfield Commons Blvd.
• Toledo: Franklin Park, 5001 Monroe St.

Oregon closing Macy's stores

• Hillsboro: The Streets of Tanasbourne, 2055 NE Allie Ave.
• Salem: Salem Center, 400 High St. NE

Pennsylvania Macy's closing stores

• Altoona: Logan Valley Mall, 5580 Goods Lane
• Exton: Exton Square, 245 Exton Square Mall
• Philadelphia: Center City, 1300 Market St.
• Wilkes Barre: Wyoming Valley Mall, 59 Wyoming Valley Mall

Tennessee Macy's store closure

• Memphis: Oak Court, 4545 Poplar Ave.

Texas Macy's store closings

• Dallas Market by Macy's: Southlake Town Square, 321 State Street
• Flower Mound Market by Macy's: Highlands of Flower Mound, 6101 Long Prairie Road
• Fort Worth Market by Macy's: West Bend, 1751 River Run
• Houston: Almeda Mall, 100 Almeda Mall
• Plano: The Shops at Willow Bend, 6209 W Park Blvd.
• Fairview: Village at Fairview, 201 Stacy Road

Virginia Macy's store closing

• Colonial Heights: Southpark Mall, 170 Southpark Circle

Washington Macy's closing stores

• Puyallup: South Hill Mall, 3500 S Meridian
• Redmond Furniture: 15340 NE 24th Street
• Siverdale: Kitsap Mall, 10315 Silverdale Way NW

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional information throughout.

More from Axios:

• Kohl's closing 27 underperforming stores by April 2025
• Taco Bell, McDonald's, Subway, Wendy's, KFC add new meal deals
• Apple reaches $95 million settlement in Siri lawsuit. What to know.

Before and after satellite images help show the destruction caused as the Los Angeles County wildfires continue.

The big picture: So far, at least 25,000 acres have burned and five deaths confirmed, per officials.

More from Axios:

• Sunset Fire threatens Hollywood landmarks
• In photos: L.A. County burns as Eaton Fire explodes in Southern California

The attitudes of financial advisers toward the crypto asset class are changing fast.

The big picture: More than half of FAs in a recent survey say the presidential election has made them more likely to invest in crypto. This time last year, in a survey from the same folks, hardly any advisers believed bitcoin ETFs would even be approved this year.

Zoom in: The survey of 400 advisers was issued by Bitwise, a crypto index fund manager that offers BITB, one of the top 5 bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

• As the firm continues to push the ETF as an investment vehicle, it conducted the survey with VettaFi to see where advisers stood.
• 96% of them said they have gotten questions about crypto.
• Nearly all (99%) of those who have made allocations for clients plan to hold on or increase it.

The intrigue: Most advisers still can't recommend bitcoin ETFs to their clients, because they work in-house for one of the big investment firms that haven't officially sanctioned any bitcoin funds yet.

• This is not that unusual, Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, tells Axios. A lot of times the big guys like to wait a year or so before recommending a new exchange-traded product.

Yes, but: He also noted that they tend to make an exception for a hot ETF launch, and the bitcoin ETFs have been the hottest. So it is a little strange.

• Morgan Stanley, for one, reportedly allows its advisers to recommend BlackRock and Fidelity's bitcoin ETFs to certain clients.

What he's saying: Hougan doesn't believe the early days are over for bitcoin as an investment until its market cap trumps that of gold.

• With gold's market cap at $18 trillion against bitcoin's nearly $2 trillion, that suggests a lot more room to run.

Friction point: Hougan said we've gone through four years of an administration hostile to cryptocurrency, with an investment regulator who takes an especially dim view.

• That was likely to make the big firms nervous. When and if Paul Atkins gets seated in the SEC, that should be enormously encouraging to the big firms putting bitcoin ETFs on their approved lists.

What we're watching: How bad the next bear market will be.

• Every contraction in crypto has seen an 80%-90% drop in bitcoin price, but, as we've said, it seems like the ETF era could soften that next drop.
• "I think it will be shallower and that it will come back faster and that will mean something is different," Hougan concurred.

The bottom line: "The reality is 95% of the world still doesn't own bitcoin, and the vast majority of institutional investors still don't own bitcoin," Hougan said. "Until that changes, it's still early."

Some moderate House Democrats are keeping the door open to supporting the massive tax, border and energy package President-elect Trump and Republicans are concocting — if the price is right.

Why it matters: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has virtually no room for error to pass the bill along party lines, and some of his right-wing hardliners are harshly conditioning their votes.

• "One of several, for me, 'bright lines,' 'red lines,' however you want to say it, is deficit reduction," Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told reporters on Thursday.
• That could be a heavy lift with Republicans planning trillions in tax cut extensions, on top of funding for things like enhanced border security.

What we're hearing: The main way Republicans could try to entice some breakaway Democratic support is through raising the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction.

• That would put money directly into the pockets of suburbanites in high-tax blue states like California, New York and New Jersey.
• "I'm not going to say what I will support or not support until I see the specifics, but I think SALT is critically important ... and this is a huge opportunity to bring SALT back fully," said Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).
• Rep. George Latimer (D-N.Y.) told Axios, "Obviously I like full SALT restoration, but let's see where the negotiations take us. ... The doors are open for whatever helps."

State of play: Some of the House GOP's most ardent advocates for SALT, like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), are pushing hard to include a generous provision in the bill and are going to Mar-a-Lago this weekend to make their case.

• Trump said on the 2024 campaign trail he would reverse the SALT cap that was part of the 2017 tax bill he signed into law.
• But the high price tag of that policy could make it a tough sell for deficit hawks like Roy, who told reporters, "Obviously, if you significantly lift or eliminate the cap, there's a fairly significant impact in terms of revenues."

The intrigue: Some of the other centrist Democrats who may be inclined to give the package a fair look would be turned off by the inclusion of a strong SALT provision.

• Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), who represents a working-class, rural district, told Axios he would support the bill "if there's stuff in there that's good for Maine or that I like."
• But, he added, "I don't like SALT. It's just a huge giveaway to the top 10%, and I care about the deficit. So that's a bad start."

Reality check: Extending the Trump tax cuts could ultimately be a bridge too far for most Democrats, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) calling the package the "GOP tax scam part two" at a press conference on Wednesday.

• "Wasting trillions of dollars on tax giveaways to the super-wealthy is offensive on its face," said centrist Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
• Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said it would be "very hard to support a tax bill that reduces corporate taxes, that doesn't put the top rate back to where it was."

Johnson, asked by Axios if he is willing to work with Democrats on the legislation, said: "We welcome all Democrats to vote for a good package. This is going to be great legislation. It's an America First agenda, but it follows common sense."

• Trump appears to be willing to take Democratic input: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) told reporters Thursday he plans to make a trek to Mar-a-Lago this weekend.

The bottom line: Even skeptical Democrats say they are ready to talk if things fall apart for Johnson and he decides to engage with them.

• "They're going to want to do this on their own," said Landsman. "If they can't because of the slim majority, obviously they're going to need our help. And that's when the bipartisan magic happens."

The Supreme Court on Thursday denied President-elect Trump's request to delay his Friday sentencing in his criminal hush money case.

Why it matters: Though Trump faces no jail time for his 34 felony convictions, the Supreme Court's decision is the final blow to his efforts to sideline his sentencing just days before he returns to the White House.

• The sentencing will formalize his status as the only living president to be convicted of a crime.

What he's saying: Trump said on Truth Social Thursday evening he appreciated the "time and effort" the Supreme Court had taken "in trying to remedy the great injustice done to me," as he complained about presiding Judge Juan Merchan and his prosecution in the New York case.

• "For the sake and sanctity of the Presidency, I will be appealing this case, and am confident that JUSTICE WILL PREVAIL," he said, indicating he will appeal the sentencing.

Catch up quick: Trump turned to the Supreme Court in an 11th-hour attempt to halt proceedings in the case while his presidential immunity appeals play out.

• "Forcing President Trump to prepare for a criminal sentencing in a felony case while he is preparing to lead the free world as President of the United States in less than two weeks imposes an intolerable, unconstitutional burden on him that undermines these vital national interests," Trump's team wrote in their appeal to the Supreme Court.
• His attorneys further contended that presidential immunity should extend to presidents-elect in the "brief but crucial" time before they take office.

State of play: The 5-4 decision by the conservative-majority court all but ensures that Trump's sentencing continues as planned for Friday.

• Chief Justice John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett, whom Trump appointed to the high court, sided with the liberal justices in making the decision.

Zoom in: Trump's sentencing will place a "relatively insubstantial" burden on his responsibilities as president-elect, the Supreme Court said.

• Merchan has indicated that he'd impose a sentence of "unconditional discharge."
• The Supreme Court noted that Trump's "alleged evidentiary violations" could be addressed on appeal.

Zoom out: District Attorney Alvin Bragg argued in a Thursday filing to the Supreme Court that there is "no basis for such intervention" to take the "extraordinary step" of halting sentencing before the court's final decision.

• The "defendant makes the unprecedented claim that the temporary presidential immunity he will possess in the future fully immunizes him now, weeks before he even takes the oath of office," Bragg wrote of Trump's stay request.

Flashback: A New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records last year, making him the first-ever former U.S. president to be a convicted felon.

• But the Supreme Court's ruling that presidents have immunity for "official acts" gave Trump legal ammunition in his numerous attempts to see the case tossed or postponed.
• His federal criminal cases crumbled after his presidential win, and his Georgia case remains frozen in limbo.

Go deeper: How prosecuting Trump backfired

Editor's note: Axios' Erin Doherty contributed reporting.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

This year's hottest housing markets are spreading westward, marking a continued shift in America's centers of power and jobs.

Why it matters: Last year, the Rust Belt dominated Zillow's annual market ranking.

The big picture: Zillow's annual ranking forecasts the most competitive housing markets for buyers. Markets at the top of the list are largely "starved for housing inventory," the real estate platform shares with Axios.

• These regions tend to be relatively affordable with strong job and wage growth.

The intrigue: Buffalo is No. 1 again, and several metros dropped significantly or fell off the list entirely between the 2024 and 2025 rankings, Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy tells Axios.

Hartford, Connecticut, and Richmond, Virginia, are the rising stars to watch in 2025. Sellers there have the upper hand as homes fly off the market at record speed.

• Across most of the U.S., buyers and sellers are at somewhat of a stalemate, Divounguy says.

Meanwhile, San Francisco and Memphis are slipping. They fell 19 and 30 positions, respectively. In these markets, homes are already sitting on the market longer, and home values are expected to depreciate, according to Divounguy.

The bottom line: Affordability and inventory are the name of the game.

As wildfires incited by high winds and record dry conditions ravage Los Angeles County, the National Weather Service is warning of continued high-risk weather to come both this week and next.

The big picture: Winds will once again pick up Thursday evening into Friday morning across the Los Angeles region with damaging gusts in the foothills and the potential for additional fire spread, NWS forecasters said Thursday afternoon.

• Forecasts call for wind gusts to 55 mph overnight Thursday into Friday, and more high wind threats are looming for LA County into early next week.

What they're saying: "Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue across the Southland into Friday, strengthening again tonight through Friday morning," NWS Los Angeles forecasters said in an online forecast discussion.

• "Another round of gusty north to northeast winds will develop between Saturday and Sunday, then a stronger offshore wind event is possible between Monday night and Tuesday."

Threat level: The Santa Ana wind event early next week looks particularly threatening due to a continued lack of rainfall with computer model projections predicting winds potentially reaching well above 50mph.

• "There is concern that fire weather conditions could become exacerbated given the antecedent conditions, little rain across the area since the Spring of 2024, and another offshore wind event on top of all of what we have seen, so far," NWS forecasters wrote.
• "Residents are urged to stay tuned to latest information and remain vigilant in steps to protect your life and property."

Catch up quick: The multiple Los Angeles County fires have burned at least 25,000 acres, caused five confirmed deaths and placed almost 180,000 residents under evacuation orders.

• Los Angeles Unified schools and offices will remain closed on Friday, with almost two dozen school districts also planning full or partial closures.

More from Axios:

• Thousands of structures destroyed, death toll unclear: fires continue to ravage L.A.
• Los Angeles County fire impacts shown in before and after images
• Sunset Fire threatens Hollywood landmarks
• In photos: L.A. County burns as Eaton Fire explodes in Southern California

Some of President-elect Trump's most audacious promises — lobbed from the comfort of the campaign trail — will be on a collision course with reality beginning Jan. 20.

Why it matters: Trump is at the peak of his influence and popularity, a status he achieved by vowing to detonate the status quo. But he and his allies know — and are starting to acknowledge — that their power will not be absolute.

1. Elon Musk last night scaled back his radically ambitious pledge to slash "at least $2 trillion" from the federal budget, suggesting in a new interview that achieving just half of that would be an "epic outcome."

• "I do think that you kind of have to have some overage," Musk, co-head of the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE), told former Clinton pollster Mark Penn on X.
• "I think if we try for $2 trillion, we've got a good shot at getting $1 trillion," he added, a tacit acknowledgment that his original goal — as many experts already warned — is highly implausible.

2. Trump's team has told European officials that the true deadline for ending the war in Ukraine is "several months," despite Trump long claiming he would do so within 24 hours of taking office, the Financial Times reported today.

• The president-elect himself suggested at a press conference this week that he hopes to broker a peace deal within six months, while his Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg has set a goal of 100 days.

3. Weeks after winning an election dominated by inflation concerns, Trump rejected the notion that his presidency would be a "failure" if he were unable to bring down grocery prices.

• "I'd like to bring them down. It's hard to bring things down once they're up. You know, it's very hard," Trump told TIME. "But I think that they will," he added.
• Federal Reserve officials, meanwhile, expressed concern last month that Trump's tariffs and immigration crackdown could stoke inflation — potentially leading to higher interest rates.

What they're saying: "This is fake news. President Trump and his team are working hard before even taking office to deliver on his promises and make life better for the American people," Trump-Vance spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Axios in a statement.

• "President Trump has every intention of delivering, and he will. Anyone who says otherwise has no idea what they're talking about."

Between the lines: Hyperbole is part and parcel of the Trump experience, and his supporters often advise the public and the media to "take him seriously, not literally."

• Still, there are clear examples from Trump's first term of him failing to fulfill lofty promises: Mexico did not, for example, ever pay for the border wall.

The big picture: This isn't to say Trump cannot, or will not, succeed in his ambitious plans to secure the border, downsize government and fundamentally reorder the global economy.

• He and his advisers previewed plans to unleash 100 executive orders — many on Day One — during a meeting with Senate Republicans on Wednesday night, as Axios scooped.
• And if Trump and GOP leadership can keep Republican lawmakers in line, the country could soon bear witness to a historic legislative agenda that implements exactly the mega-MAGA vision he has promised.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has asked the Georgia Supreme Court to reverse her disqualification in the election interference case against President-elect Trump, according to a court filing.

Why it matters: Willis' disqualification from the case over a conflict of interest was seen as a major win for Trump, and a blow to the last effort to prosecute him for his allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election results.

• "No Georgia court has ever disqualified a district attorney for the mere appearance of impropriety without the existence of an actual conflict of interest," Willis' appeal stated.

Catch up quick: The Georgia Court of Appeals ruled in December to disqualify Willis over a conflict of interest stemming from a romantic relationship she had with the lead prosecutor on the case, whom she hired.

• Trump's legal team has repeatedly accused her of impropriety and cast the indictment against him as tainted because of the relationship, which Willis publicly acknowledged.
• The trial judge overseeing the case previously allowed Willis to stay on it as long as the prosecutor, Nathan Wade, stepped aside.

Flashback: Trump and 18 co-defendants were indicted in August 2023 under Georgia's RICO law, which is typically used to prosecute organized crime.

Between the lines: Willis easily won reelection in November against Republican challenger Courtney Kramer, who served as a White House legal intern in the Trump administration.

Go deeper: Fani Willis disqualified from Trump's Georgia election interference case

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg on Thursday urged the U.S. Supreme Court to deny President-elect Trump's latest bid to halt his sentencing in his New York hush money case.

Why it matters: The 11th-hour back-and-forth comes as Trump is scheduled to be sentenced for his historic felony conviction on Friday, mere days before his inauguration.

• The N.Y. judge overseeing the case has already indicated that Trump won't face jail time.
• After a New York appeals court rejected yet another last-ditch effort by Trump to get out of the sentencing, Trump asked the Supreme Court Wednesday to intervene on his behalf.

The big picture: The "defendant makes the unprecedented claim that the temporary presidential immunity he will possess in the future fully immunizes him now, weeks before he even takes the oath of office," Bragg wrote of Trump's stay request.

• Bragg dismissed the argument, noting that presidential immunity only applies to the time a president is serving their term in office.
• In regards to Trump's claims that the trial had included "erroneous admission of official-acts evidence at trial," Bragg argued that Trump could appeal these aspects once sentenced in due course, but that there is "no basis" for asking the Supreme Court to intervene before a final judgement had been handed down.

Context: Trump has seized on the Supreme Court's ruling last summer that president's enjoy immunity for "official acts" to lodge several requests to halt the case's legal proceedings or throw out his conviction altogether.

• A jury convicted Trump last May on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels over an alleged sexual encounter.
• The ruling made him the first-ever former U.S. president to be a convicted felon.

Zoom out: Trump asks Supreme Court to block hush money sentencing

Americans who live in states dealing with fires, high winds and flooding could see insurance rates increase — or lose coverage entirely — as disasters intensify.

Why it matters: The affected areas span from coast to coast and include tens of millions of people living in two of the most populous states — California and Florida.

• Homeowner's insurance rates in some of these areas could start to become unaffordable as climate change fuels an increase in destructive storms.
• And if insurers decide to pull back altogether, states will need to step in to take on the risk — which can cost individuals more and offer less coverage.

Zoom out: The human toll, damage, and cost of disasters is mounting.

• The U.S. saw 28 weather and climate disasters costing at least 1 billion dollars in 2023 — the highest on record. Damages totaled $93 billion.
• 2024 disaster data is not yet out, though it’s expected to follow the trend.

What to watch: Insurers are changing how they factor climate and extreme weather risks into the premiums they charge for coverage, while some are suspending coverage, Axios’ Brianna Crane reports.

• That's pushing many homeowners to opt for public "insurer of last resort" plans — but often at higher rates.

The Lebanese Parliament on Thursday elected the commander of the Lebanese armed forces Gen. Joseph Aoun as the country's next president.

Why it matters: Lebanon hasn't had a president for more than two years while the country's leaders tried to reach consensus on a candidate, which has exacerbated Lebanon's deep political and economic crisis.

• Aoun is an ally of the U.S. and has worked closely with the U.S. military for years.
• His election is a big achievement for the Biden administration, which privately lobbied for Aoun and has been pushing to use the weakening of Hezbollah in the war with Israel to break the logjam around the election of a new Lebanese president.

Driving the news: Aoun needed at least 86 votes from lawmakers in order to bypass a law that requires military officers to wait two years before running for office.

• In the first round of voting on Thursday morning, Aoun didn't get enough votes because several lawmakers affiliated with the Shiite Amal party and Hezbollah abstained.
• Aoun then met with the lawmakers and assured them that the next Lebanese government would have enough representation for the Shia community.
• Shortly after, a second vote was held with Aoun winning 99 votes out of 128 lawmakers.

Behind the scenes: The U.S., France and Saudi Arabia worked together in recent weeks to push for the election of a new Lebanese president.

• The three countries didn't publicly call for Auon's election but in private they supported his candidacy and claimed he was the only consensus candidate, sources with knowledge of the discussion said.
• Earlier this week, Biden's envoy Amos Hochstein met in Beirut with Aoun as well as key political leaders and dozens of Lebanese lawmakers to discuss the presidential election.
• The breakthrough came on Wednesday when Suleiman Frangieh, the candidate supported by Hezbollah, dropped out of the race and announced his support for Aoun.

The big picture: U.S. officials said the end of the deadlock can be attributed largely to Hezbollah and its Iranian backers being in an extremely weak position after suffering loses in the war with Israel and the Assad regime being toppled in Syria.

• Hezbollah had to abandon its veto over any candidate who is not Frangieh and the Iranians didn't interfere in the process, a U.S. official said.
• Aoun's election is likely to increase Western support for the Lebanese government and the Lebanese armed forces redeployed to southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire deal with Israel.
• Aoun's victory would also likely increase U.S. and European pressure on Israel to conclude its withdrawal from southern Lebanon by the end of the initial 60-day ceasefire period, which will end in three weeks.

What they're saying: Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar congratulated Lebanon for the election of a new president.

• "I hope that this choice will contribute towards stability, a better future for Lebanon and its people and to good neighborly relations," he said.

In a speech after his election, Aoun said Lebanon under his presidency will be committed to the rule of law and that he will make sure the right to carry weapons will be exclusive to the state.

• He said Lebanon will respect the ceasefire agreement with Israel and its other international obligations.
• Aoun said Lebanon's foreign policy will be of "positive neutrality" and that the country will work to improve relations with the West and the East based on "mutual respect and on maintaining Lebanon's sovereignty and independent decision."

The nation honors former President Jimmy Carter with a state funeral today and a national day of mourning.

The big picture: President Biden will deliver Carter's eulogy during the funeral, which comes 11 days before President-elect Trump's inauguration.

• All five living U.S. presidents are expected to attend Thursday's service.

What time does Jimmy Carter's funeral start?

The national funeral service for Carter is slated to start at 10am ET today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

Watch Carter funeral live

What we're watching: The Washington National Cathedral is livestreaming the funeral on its website and YouTube page.

How to watch Jimmy Carter funeral on TV

Major news networks are broadcasting the funeral live on their websites, apps and YouTube channels.

• This includes ABC, C-SPAN, NewsNation, CBS, CNN, CNBC, NBC, MSNBC, PBS and Fox News.

More from Axios:

• USPS suspends mail Thursday for Jimmy Carter day of mourning
• In photos: Trump and others pay their respects to Jimmy Carter
• Bird flu causing egg prices to soar to new record high

The U.S. is honoring former President Jimmy Carter, the nation's 39th commander-in-chief, with a state funeral that began Thursday at 10am at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

The big picture: Carter, who died Dec. 29 at 100, has been honored throughout the week — from his hometown of Plains, Georgia, to the nation's capital. President Biden declared Thursday a national day of mourning for Carter.

• Often called the "nation's greatest former president," Carter is remembered for a lifetime of service and his decades of humanitarian work after his time in the White House.

State of play: All five living U.S. presidents are in attendance at Thursday's service.

• First Lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff are all also present.
• The U.S. Postal Service, financial markets (including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq) and federal buildings are closed Thursday to mark the national day of mourning.

What they're saying: Josh Carter, Jimmy Carter's grandson, opened remarks at the service by remembering the way his grandfather dedicated his life to"helping those in need."

• "He built houses for people that needed homes. He eliminated diseases in forgotten places. He waged peace anywhere in the world, wherever he saw a chance. He loved people," he said.

What we're watching: Biden, who considered Carter a "dear friend" for over six decades, is set to deliver his eulogy in what will be one of his final speeches before departing the White House later this month.

• Biden said in 2023 that Carter, who at the time was receiving hospice care, had asked him to deliver his eulogy after his death.

Catch up quick: Carter's body arrived in D.C. on Tuesday and was taken to the U.S. Capitol in a horse-drawn caisson.

• His time lying in state, where he was honored by lawmakers and members of the public alike, concluded Thursday morning.
• After the state funeral, Carter's body will be taken back to his hometown, where there will be a private funeral service.
• He will be buried next to his late wife, former First Lady Rosalynn Carter, who died in 2023.

Go deeper: How, when to watch Jimmy Carter's funeral live

Editor's note: This story was updated with details from the service.

President-elect Trump and top advisers previewed ambitious plans for 100 executive orders during a meeting with Senate Republicans on Wednesday night, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: While Congress debates the next moves on their own aggressive legislative plans, Trump let them know he is ready to roll — especially on immigration.

• Senators were given previews of some of what they were told would be 100 executive orders, two sources who were in the room told Axios.
• Stephen Miller, Trump's longtime immigration adviser, dove into how they intend to use executive power to address the border and immigration starting Day 1.
• It's unclear if all will be technical executive orders, or more broadly executive actions taken by Trump or federal agencies.

One big border plan: Reinstating Title 42, according to multiple sources.

• The pandemic-era public health policy cites concerns about spreading illness to allow for the rapid expulsion of migrants at the border — preventing them from even a shot at asylum.
• There were millions of Title 42 expulsions from early in the COVID pandemic until President Biden ended the policy in 2023.

Other executive actions and plans that Miller outlined included:

• More aggressively using a part of the Immigration and Nationality Act — 287(g) — which allows some state and local law enforcement to assist in some of the duties of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
• Building the border wall, constructing soft-sided facilities to hold migrants and implementing other asylum restrictions.

A new poll of college students found that half view the suspect in UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's recent killing extremely or somewhat favorably, and nearly half believe the crime was justified.

• 81% of the students polled by Generation Lab said they have an extremely or somewhat negative view of Thompson, the victim.

Why it matters: There's a stark divide between how young people and older people view Thompson's killing. Polls and social media posts indicate that, among young people, there's lasting support for and fascination with a suspected killer — and disdain for the victim.

By the numbers: When asked with whom they sympathize more, 45% of respondents chose suspect Luigi Mangione, 17% chose Thompson, and 37% said neither.

• 48% said they view the killing as totally or somewhat justified.
• Those findings chime with an Emerson College poll which found that 41% of voters under 30 found the killing "acceptable," far more than in any other age group.

Methodology: This poll was conducted December 19–23 from a representative sample of 1,026 college students nationwide from 2-year and 4-year schools. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Generation Lab conducts polling using a demographically representative sample frame of college students at community colleges, technical colleges, trade schools and public and private four-year institutions.

President-elect Trump's highly unusual intervention in the Supreme Court's TikTok case reads almost like a guy asking for a favor from an institution that still runs on formality.

The big picture: Trump's last-minute effort to give TikTok a stay of execution is one more twist in a case that already scrambles every ideological dividing line.

Driving the news: The court is set to hear oral arguments Friday over TikTok's future. A new, overwhelmingly bipartisan law requires the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to either sell TikTok by Jan. 19 or shut it down within the U.S.

• There's no simple partisan division on this one. Republicans in Congress supported the law, which President Biden signed, and GOP attorneys general have weighed in to help Biden defend the law in court.
• Trump previously advocated for a ban, then flip-flopped. He filed an amicus brief on Dec. 27 urging the court to pause the law.
• The actual parties in the TikTok case largely ignored Trump's filing, which is mostly about Trump, not the law.
• Whether the justices give it more credence could say a lot about the overall direction of a conservative court that has handed Trump some enormous victories.

What they're saying: ByteDance and a group of TikTok users argue that the law violates the First Amendment, because it would shutter one of the country's most popular platforms for personal expression.

• The Biden administration says the ban is rooted in national security concerns, and doesn't target any specific speech on TikTok. A new owner could still allow all the same content, it argues, so there's no First Amendment issue.

Between the lines: The conservative Supreme Court usually (but not always) sides with people making First Amendment claims. And it usually (but not always) sides with the federal government when the government says there's a national-security issue.

• In this case, it won't be able to do both.

And then there's Trump. He has asked the justices not to let the law go into effect as scheduled on Jan. 19 — but his argument is not rooted in any of the First Amendment or national-security concerns at issue in the case. It takes no position on those issues.

• "President Trump alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the Government," his brief says.
• The argument is essentially that the court should ignore the deadline Congress and the president decided on, and defer instead to Trump's force of personality.
• "President Trump is one of the most powerful, prolific, and influential users of social media in history. Consistent with his commanding presence in this area, President Trump currently has 14.7 million followers on TikTok," his brief says, arguing that he is uniquely well positioned to solve a social-media problem.

That may be a stretch, even for a court that has sided with Trump on any number of high-stakes issues.

• He is, for now, still just an ordinary citizen with no formal role in this dispute, and there is a statutory deadline that was intentionally set before the next president would be sworn in.
• But it's also a hard case, legally and politically, and any avenue that lets the justices avoid striking down a bipartisan law or banning a wildly popular app might have some appeal.

The devastating wildfires raging through Los Angeles are re-opening the debate about how to model and manage risk for the insurance industry, as climate change makes such destruction more inevitable.

Why it matters: California's insurance market is in the middle of major reforms to deal with the cost of fire, but they may not be fast enough given the billions of dollars at stake.

• Some market experts warn the state may need to consider becoming a primary insurer for fire risk — much as it already did with earthquakes and Florida did with hurricanes.

The big picture: Climate change has made California vastly more susceptible to wildfires — previously in summer, now no matter the season.

• That growing risk has made insurers wary of covering the state, and led many to pull out of the market altogether.
• California FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort for fire risk, is soaking up that demand — protecting homeowners, but squeezing other insurers and weakening its own financial condition.
• "When the FAIR Plan takes on more customers, it causes traditional insurance companies to withdraw from certain areas, further increasing dependence on the FAIR Plan. This cycle can ultimately weaken the FAIR Plan's financial stability and limit consumer choice," state insurance commissioner Ricardo Lara wrote in a Sept. 2024 bulletin.

By the numbers: As of Sept. 2024, FAIR Plan's exposure to residential fire risk was $431.45 billion, up almost 60% from the year before.

• The number of policies in force rose 123% in four years, the agency says.
• One of the biggest risk areas in the state is the currently burning Pacific Palisades, with $5.89 billion in exposure due in large part to high property values.
• FAIR Plan does have a mechanism to share its burden with insurers in the state if its solvency is at risk, but insurers now have the ability to pass those assessment costs onto their customers.

Between the lines: The California Department of Insurance (CDI) moved in recent years to implement a "Sustainable Insurance Strategy," changes that traded more flexibility for insurers for more coverage of at-risk areas.

• Lara issued new regulations letting insurers pass along some of their reinsurance costs to their customers, and letting them use "catastrophe modeling" to project possible future losses instead of simply relying on historical data.
• Those changes were controversial, as opponents said they would cause rates to rise faster than coverage would expand.
• The Insurance Information Institute, a clearinghouse for the industry, says the regulations are having a positive effect, prompting more insurers to write more coverage.
• This week's fires may have complicated matters, though.

What they're saying: "I think that California is being progressive in a lot of ways in the insurance market," says Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at risk modeling firm First Street.

• "The downside of that is, there's a correction that has to be made. There's what I call a climate debt," Porter says. "All of those fees, all of those insurance premiums, they're all going to adjust upward as we talk about risk."
• In other words, Californians have to accept they're going to pay more if the risk of fires is modeled properly and insured in a sound manner.

What's next: It's far too soon to say what kind of losses this week's fires will generate, for FAIR Plan or the industry. But the evident damage is enough to get people thinking about outcomes.

• "Things could still break for the positive, but it is seeming more likely that the losses from tonight's fires could push insurance markets over the brink in California — despite all the good work CDI and stakeholders have done over the past few years to stabilize the situation," Michael Wara, a senior research scholar at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, posted on X.
• "I am beginning to think that we need to be having a much bigger conversation about the structure and assumptions that underlie this rate regulated industry. The current model may just not be sustainable," Wara wrote, pointing to the difficulties in Florida, which has a strained state-run insurer for hurricanes.