As wildfires incited by high winds and record dry conditions ravage Los Angeles County, the National Weather Service is warning of continued high-risk weather to come both this week and next.

The big picture: Winds will once again pick up Thursday evening into Friday morning across the Los Angeles region with damaging gusts in the foothills and the potential for additional fire spread, NWS forecasters said Thursday afternoon.

• Forecasts call for wind gusts to 55 mph overnight Thursday into Friday, and more high wind threats are looming for LA County into early next week.

What they're saying: "Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue across the Southland into Friday, strengthening again tonight through Friday morning," NWS Los Angeles forecasters said in an online forecast discussion.

• "Another round of gusty north to northeast winds will develop between Saturday and Sunday, then a stronger offshore wind event is possible between Monday night and Tuesday."

Threat level: The Santa Ana wind event early next week looks particularly threatening due to a continued lack of rainfall with computer model projections predicting winds potentially reaching well above 50mph.

• "There is concern that fire weather conditions could become exacerbated given the antecedent conditions, little rain across the area since the Spring of 2024, and another offshore wind event on top of all of what we have seen, so far," NWS forecasters wrote.
• "Residents are urged to stay tuned to latest information and remain vigilant in steps to protect your life and property."

Catch up quick: The multiple Los Angeles County fires have burned at least 25,000 acres, caused five confirmed deaths and placed almost 180,000 residents under evacuation orders.

• Los Angeles Unified schools and offices will remain closed on Friday, with almost two dozen school districts also planning full or partial closures.

More from Axios:

• Thousands of structures destroyed, death toll unclear: fires continue to ravage L.A.
• Los Angeles County fire impacts shown in before and after images
• Sunset Fire threatens Hollywood landmarks
• In photos: L.A. County burns as Eaton Fire explodes in Southern California

Some of President-elect Trump's most audacious promises — lobbed from the comfort of the campaign trail — will be on a collision course with reality beginning Jan. 20.

Why it matters: Trump is at the peak of his influence and popularity, a status he achieved by vowing to detonate the status quo. But he and his allies know — and are starting to acknowledge — that their power will not be absolute.

1. Elon Musk last night scaled back his radically ambitious pledge to slash "at least $2 trillion" from the federal budget, suggesting in a new interview that achieving just half of that would be an "epic outcome."

• "I do think that you kind of have to have some overage," Musk, co-head of the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE), told former Clinton pollster Mark Penn on X.
• "I think if we try for $2 trillion, we've got a good shot at getting $1 trillion," he added, a tacit acknowledgment that his original goal — as many experts already warned — is highly implausible.

2. Trump's team has told European officials that the true deadline for ending the war in Ukraine is "several months," despite Trump long claiming he would do so within 24 hours of taking office, the Financial Times reported today.

• The president-elect himself suggested at a press conference this week that he hopes to broker a peace deal within six months, while his Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg has set a goal of 100 days.

3. Weeks after winning an election dominated by inflation concerns, Trump rejected the notion that his presidency would be a "failure" if he were unable to bring down grocery prices.

• "I'd like to bring them down. It's hard to bring things down once they're up. You know, it's very hard," Trump told TIME. "But I think that they will," he added.
• Federal Reserve officials, meanwhile, expressed concern last month that Trump's tariffs and immigration crackdown could stoke inflation — potentially leading to higher interest rates.

What they're saying: "This is fake news. President Trump and his team are working hard before even taking office to deliver on his promises and make life better for the American people," Trump-Vance spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Axios in a statement.

• "President Trump has every intention of delivering, and he will. Anyone who says otherwise has no idea what they're talking about."

Between the lines: Hyperbole is part and parcel of the Trump experience, and his supporters often advise the public and the media to "take him seriously, not literally."

• Still, there are clear examples from Trump's first term of him failing to fulfill lofty promises: Mexico did not, for example, ever pay for the border wall.

The big picture: This isn't to say Trump cannot, or will not, succeed in his ambitious plans to secure the border, downsize government and fundamentally reorder the global economy.

• He and his advisers previewed plans to unleash 100 executive orders — many on Day One — during a meeting with Senate Republicans on Wednesday night, as Axios scooped.
• And if Trump and GOP leadership can keep Republican lawmakers in line, the country could soon bear witness to a historic legislative agenda that implements exactly the mega-MAGA vision he has promised.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has asked the Georgia Supreme Court to reverse her disqualification in the election interference case against President-elect Trump, according to a court filing.

Why it matters: Willis' disqualification from the case over a conflict of interest was seen as a major win for Trump, and a blow to the last effort to prosecute him for his allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election results.

• "No Georgia court has ever disqualified a district attorney for the mere appearance of impropriety without the existence of an actual conflict of interest," Willis' appeal stated.

Catch up quick: The Georgia Court of Appeals ruled in December to disqualify Willis over a conflict of interest stemming from a romantic relationship she had with the lead prosecutor on the case, whom she hired.

• Trump's legal team has repeatedly accused her of impropriety and cast the indictment against him as tainted because of the relationship, which Willis publicly acknowledged.
• The trial judge overseeing the case previously allowed Willis to stay on it as long as the prosecutor, Nathan Wade, stepped aside.

Flashback: Trump and 18 co-defendants were indicted in August 2023 under Georgia's RICO law, which is typically used to prosecute organized crime.

Between the lines: Willis easily won reelection in November against Republican challenger Courtney Kramer, who served as a White House legal intern in the Trump administration.

Go deeper: Fani Willis disqualified from Trump's Georgia election interference case

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg on Thursday urged the U.S. Supreme Court to deny President-elect Trump's latest bid to halt his sentencing in his New York hush money case.

Why it matters: The 11th-hour back-and-forth comes as Trump is scheduled to be sentenced for his historic felony conviction on Friday, mere days before his inauguration.

• The N.Y. judge overseeing the case has already indicated that Trump won't face jail time.
• After a New York appeals court rejected yet another last-ditch effort by Trump to get out of the sentencing, Trump asked the Supreme Court Wednesday to intervene on his behalf.

The big picture: The "defendant makes the unprecedented claim that the temporary presidential immunity he will possess in the future fully immunizes him now, weeks before he even takes the oath of office," Bragg wrote of Trump's stay request.

• Bragg dismissed the argument, noting that presidential immunity only applies to the time a president is serving their term in office.
• In regards to Trump's claims that the trial had included "erroneous admission of official-acts evidence at trial," Bragg argued that Trump could appeal these aspects once sentenced in due course, but that there is "no basis" for asking the Supreme Court to intervene before a final judgement had been handed down.

Context: Trump has seized on the Supreme Court's ruling last summer that president's enjoy immunity for "official acts" to lodge several requests to halt the case's legal proceedings or throw out his conviction altogether.

• A jury convicted Trump last May on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels over an alleged sexual encounter.
• The ruling made him the first-ever former U.S. president to be a convicted felon.

Zoom out: Trump asks Supreme Court to block hush money sentencing

Americans who live in states dealing with fires, high winds and flooding could see insurance rates increase — or lose coverage entirely — as disasters intensify.

Why it matters: The affected areas span from coast to coast and include tens of millions of people living in two of the most populous states — California and Florida.

• Homeowner's insurance rates in some of these areas could start to become unaffordable as climate change fuels an increase in destructive storms.
• And if insurers decide to pull back altogether, states will need to step in to take on the risk — which can cost individuals more and offer less coverage.

Zoom out: The human toll, damage, and cost of disasters is mounting.

• The U.S. saw 28 weather and climate disasters costing at least 1 billion dollars in 2023 — the highest on record. Damages totaled $93 billion.
• 2024 disaster data is not yet out, though it’s expected to follow the trend.

What to watch: Insurers are changing how they factor climate and extreme weather risks into the premiums they charge for coverage, while some are suspending coverage, Axios’ Brianna Crane reports.

• That's pushing many homeowners to opt for public "insurer of last resort" plans — but often at higher rates.

The Lebanese Parliament on Thursday elected the commander of the Lebanese armed forces Gen. Joseph Aoun as the country's next president.

Why it matters: Lebanon hasn't had a president for more than two years while the country's leaders tried to reach consensus on a candidate, which has exacerbated Lebanon's deep political and economic crisis.

• Aoun is an ally of the U.S. and has worked closely with the U.S. military for years.
• His election is a big achievement for the Biden administration, which privately lobbied for Aoun and has been pushing to use the weakening of Hezbollah in the war with Israel to break the logjam around the election of a new Lebanese president.

Driving the news: Aoun needed at least 86 votes from lawmakers in order to bypass a law that requires military officers to wait two years before running for office.

• In the first round of voting on Thursday morning, Aoun didn't get enough votes because several lawmakers affiliated with the Shiite Amal party and Hezbollah abstained.
• Aoun then met with the lawmakers and assured them that the next Lebanese government would have enough representation for the Shia community.
• Shortly after, a second vote was held with Aoun winning 99 votes out of 128 lawmakers.

Behind the scenes: The U.S., France and Saudi Arabia worked together in recent weeks to push for the election of a new Lebanese president.

• The three countries didn't publicly call for Auon's election but in private they supported his candidacy and claimed he was the only consensus candidate, sources with knowledge of the discussion said.
• Earlier this week, Biden's envoy Amos Hochstein met in Beirut with Aoun as well as key political leaders and dozens of Lebanese lawmakers to discuss the presidential election.
• The breakthrough came on Wednesday when Suleiman Frangieh, the candidate supported by Hezbollah, dropped out of the race and announced his support for Aoun.

The big picture: U.S. officials said the end of the deadlock can be attributed largely to Hezbollah and its Iranian backers being in an extremely weak position after suffering loses in the war with Israel and the Assad regime being toppled in Syria.

• Hezbollah had to abandon its veto over any candidate who is not Frangieh and the Iranians didn't interfere in the process, a U.S. official said.
• Aoun's election is likely to increase Western support for the Lebanese government and the Lebanese armed forces redeployed to southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire deal with Israel.
• Aoun's victory would also likely increase U.S. and European pressure on Israel to conclude its withdrawal from southern Lebanon by the end of the initial 60-day ceasefire period, which will end in three weeks.

What they're saying: Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar congratulated Lebanon for the election of a new president.

• "I hope that this choice will contribute towards stability, a better future for Lebanon and its people and to good neighborly relations," he said.

In a speech after his election, Aoun said Lebanon under his presidency will be committed to the rule of law and that he will make sure the right to carry weapons will be exclusive to the state.

• He said Lebanon will respect the ceasefire agreement with Israel and its other international obligations.
• Aoun said Lebanon's foreign policy will be of "positive neutrality" and that the country will work to improve relations with the West and the East based on "mutual respect and on maintaining Lebanon's sovereignty and independent decision."

The nation honors former President Jimmy Carter with a state funeral today and a national day of mourning.

The big picture: President Biden will deliver Carter's eulogy during the funeral, which comes 11 days before President-elect Trump's inauguration.

• All five living U.S. presidents are expected to attend Thursday's service.

What time does Jimmy Carter's funeral start?

The national funeral service for Carter is slated to start at 10am ET today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

Watch Carter funeral live

What we're watching: The Washington National Cathedral is livestreaming the funeral on its website and YouTube page.

How to watch Jimmy Carter funeral on TV

Major news networks are broadcasting the funeral live on their websites, apps and YouTube channels.

• This includes ABC, C-SPAN, NewsNation, CBS, CNN, CNBC, NBC, MSNBC, PBS and Fox News.

More from Axios:

• USPS suspends mail Thursday for Jimmy Carter day of mourning
• In photos: Trump and others pay their respects to Jimmy Carter
• Bird flu causing egg prices to soar to new record high

The U.S. is honoring former President Jimmy Carter, the nation's 39th commander-in-chief, with a state funeral that began Thursday at 10am at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

The big picture: Carter, who died Dec. 29 at 100, has been honored throughout the week — from his hometown of Plains, Georgia, to the nation's capital. President Biden declared Thursday a national day of mourning for Carter.

• Often called the "nation's greatest former president," Carter is remembered for a lifetime of service and his decades of humanitarian work after his time in the White House.

State of play: All five living U.S. presidents are in attendance at Thursday's service.

• First Lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff are all also present.
• The U.S. Postal Service, financial markets (including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq) and federal buildings are closed Thursday to mark the national day of mourning.

What they're saying: Josh Carter, Jimmy Carter's grandson, opened remarks at the service by remembering the way his grandfather dedicated his life to"helping those in need."

• "He built houses for people that needed homes. He eliminated diseases in forgotten places. He waged peace anywhere in the world, wherever he saw a chance. He loved people," he said.

What we're watching: Biden, who considered Carter a "dear friend" for over six decades, is set to deliver his eulogy in what will be one of his final speeches before departing the White House later this month.

• Biden said in 2023 that Carter, who at the time was receiving hospice care, had asked him to deliver his eulogy after his death.

Catch up quick: Carter's body arrived in D.C. on Tuesday and was taken to the U.S. Capitol in a horse-drawn caisson.

• His time lying in state, where he was honored by lawmakers and members of the public alike, concluded Thursday morning.
• After the state funeral, Carter's body will be taken back to his hometown, where there will be a private funeral service.
• He will be buried next to his late wife, former First Lady Rosalynn Carter, who died in 2023.

Go deeper: How, when to watch Jimmy Carter's funeral live

Editor's note: This story was updated with details from the service.

President-elect Trump and top advisers previewed ambitious plans for 100 executive orders during a meeting with Senate Republicans on Wednesday night, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: While Congress debates the next moves on their own aggressive legislative plans, Trump let them know he is ready to roll — especially on immigration.

• Senators were given previews of some of what they were told would be 100 executive orders, two sources who were in the room told Axios.
• Stephen Miller, Trump's longtime immigration adviser, dove into how they intend to use executive power to address the border and immigration starting Day 1.
• It's unclear if all will be technical executive orders, or more broadly executive actions taken by Trump or federal agencies.

One big border plan: Reinstating Title 42, according to multiple sources.

• The pandemic-era public health policy cites concerns about spreading illness to allow for the rapid expulsion of migrants at the border — preventing them from even a shot at asylum.
• There were millions of Title 42 expulsions from early in the COVID pandemic until President Biden ended the policy in 2023.

Other executive actions and plans that Miller outlined included:

• More aggressively using a part of the Immigration and Nationality Act — 287(g) — which allows some state and local law enforcement to assist in some of the duties of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
• Building the border wall, constructing soft-sided facilities to hold migrants and implementing other asylum restrictions.

A new poll of college students found that half view the suspect in UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's recent killing extremely or somewhat favorably, and nearly half believe the crime was justified.

• 81% of the students polled by Generation Lab said they have an extremely or somewhat negative view of Thompson, the victim.

Why it matters: There's a stark divide between how young people and older people view Thompson's killing. Polls and social media posts indicate that, among young people, there's lasting support for and fascination with a suspected killer — and disdain for the victim.

By the numbers: When asked with whom they sympathize more, 45% of respondents chose suspect Luigi Mangione, 17% chose Thompson, and 37% said neither.

• 48% said they view the killing as totally or somewhat justified.
• Those findings chime with an Emerson College poll which found that 41% of voters under 30 found the killing "acceptable," far more than in any other age group.

Methodology: This poll was conducted December 19–23 from a representative sample of 1,026 college students nationwide from 2-year and 4-year schools. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Generation Lab conducts polling using a demographically representative sample frame of college students at community colleges, technical colleges, trade schools and public and private four-year institutions.

President-elect Trump's highly unusual intervention in the Supreme Court's TikTok case reads almost like a guy asking for a favor from an institution that still runs on formality.

The big picture: Trump's last-minute effort to give TikTok a stay of execution is one more twist in a case that already scrambles every ideological dividing line.

Driving the news: The court is set to hear oral arguments Friday over TikTok's future. A new, overwhelmingly bipartisan law requires the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to either sell TikTok by Jan. 19 or shut it down within the U.S.

• There's no simple partisan division on this one. Republicans in Congress supported the law, which President Biden signed, and GOP attorneys general have weighed in to help Biden defend the law in court.
• Trump previously advocated for a ban, then flip-flopped. He filed an amicus brief on Dec. 27 urging the court to pause the law.
• The actual parties in the TikTok case largely ignored Trump's filing, which is mostly about Trump, not the law.
• Whether the justices give it more credence could say a lot about the overall direction of a conservative court that has handed Trump some enormous victories.

What they're saying: ByteDance and a group of TikTok users argue that the law violates the First Amendment, because it would shutter one of the country's most popular platforms for personal expression.

• The Biden administration says the ban is rooted in national security concerns, and doesn't target any specific speech on TikTok. A new owner could still allow all the same content, it argues, so there's no First Amendment issue.

Between the lines: The conservative Supreme Court usually (but not always) sides with people making First Amendment claims. And it usually (but not always) sides with the federal government when the government says there's a national-security issue.

• In this case, it won't be able to do both.

And then there's Trump. He has asked the justices not to let the law go into effect as scheduled on Jan. 19 — but his argument is not rooted in any of the First Amendment or national-security concerns at issue in the case. It takes no position on those issues.

• "President Trump alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the Government," his brief says.
• The argument is essentially that the court should ignore the deadline Congress and the president decided on, and defer instead to Trump's force of personality.
• "President Trump is one of the most powerful, prolific, and influential users of social media in history. Consistent with his commanding presence in this area, President Trump currently has 14.7 million followers on TikTok," his brief says, arguing that he is uniquely well positioned to solve a social-media problem.

That may be a stretch, even for a court that has sided with Trump on any number of high-stakes issues.

• He is, for now, still just an ordinary citizen with no formal role in this dispute, and there is a statutory deadline that was intentionally set before the next president would be sworn in.
• But it's also a hard case, legally and politically, and any avenue that lets the justices avoid striking down a bipartisan law or banning a wildly popular app might have some appeal.

The devastating wildfires raging through Los Angeles are re-opening the debate about how to model and manage risk for the insurance industry, as climate change makes such destruction more inevitable.

Why it matters: California's insurance market is in the middle of major reforms to deal with the cost of fire, but they may not be fast enough given the billions of dollars at stake.

• Some market experts warn the state may need to consider becoming a primary insurer for fire risk — much as it already did with earthquakes and Florida did with hurricanes.

The big picture: Climate change has made California vastly more susceptible to wildfires — previously in summer, now no matter the season.

• That growing risk has made insurers wary of covering the state, and led many to pull out of the market altogether.
• California FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort for fire risk, is soaking up that demand — protecting homeowners, but squeezing other insurers and weakening its own financial condition.
• "When the FAIR Plan takes on more customers, it causes traditional insurance companies to withdraw from certain areas, further increasing dependence on the FAIR Plan. This cycle can ultimately weaken the FAIR Plan's financial stability and limit consumer choice," state insurance commissioner Ricardo Lara wrote in a Sept. 2024 bulletin.

By the numbers: As of Sept. 2024, FAIR Plan's exposure to residential fire risk was $431.45 billion, up almost 60% from the year before.

• The number of policies in force rose 123% in four years, the agency says.
• One of the biggest risk areas in the state is the currently burning Pacific Palisades, with $5.89 billion in exposure due in large part to high property values.
• FAIR Plan does have a mechanism to share its burden with insurers in the state if its solvency is at risk, but insurers now have the ability to pass those assessment costs onto their customers.

Between the lines: The California Department of Insurance (CDI) moved in recent years to implement a "Sustainable Insurance Strategy," changes that traded more flexibility for insurers for more coverage of at-risk areas.

• Lara issued new regulations letting insurers pass along some of their reinsurance costs to their customers, and letting them use "catastrophe modeling" to project possible future losses instead of simply relying on historical data.
• Those changes were controversial, as opponents said they would cause rates to rise faster than coverage would expand.
• The Insurance Information Institute, a clearinghouse for the industry, says the regulations are having a positive effect, prompting more insurers to write more coverage.
• This week's fires may have complicated matters, though.

What they're saying: "I think that California is being progressive in a lot of ways in the insurance market," says Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at risk modeling firm First Street.

• "The downside of that is, there's a correction that has to be made. There's what I call a climate debt," Porter says. "All of those fees, all of those insurance premiums, they're all going to adjust upward as we talk about risk."
• In other words, Californians have to accept they're going to pay more if the risk of fires is modeled properly and insured in a sound manner.

What's next: It's far too soon to say what kind of losses this week's fires will generate, for FAIR Plan or the industry. But the evident damage is enough to get people thinking about outcomes.

• "Things could still break for the positive, but it is seeming more likely that the losses from tonight's fires could push insurance markets over the brink in California — despite all the good work CDI and stakeholders have done over the past few years to stabilize the situation," Michael Wara, a senior research scholar at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, posted on X.
• "I am beginning to think that we need to be having a much bigger conversation about the structure and assumptions that underlie this rate regulated industry. The current model may just not be sustainable," Wara wrote, pointing to the difficulties in Florida, which has a strained state-run insurer for hurricanes.

A separate Los Angeles wildfire that ignited in the Hollywood Hills on Wednesday night was still threatening homes and iconic L.A. landmarks early Thursday morning.

The big picture: The Sunset Fire was one of multiple fires burning out of control across Los Angeles County as of Thursday.

• Five deaths were confirmed in one of the blazes which have razed at least 2,000 structures, including the homes of Hollywood actor Billy Crystal and media personality Paris Hilton, and forced tens of thousands of residents to evacuate.

State of play: The Sunset Fire started around 6pm local time Wednesday. By Thursday morning it had grown to an estimated 43 acres at 0% containment near Runyon Canyon, only a few miles from the Hollywood Boulevard and the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

• The majority of the mandatory evacuation orders spurred by the Sunset Fire were lifted by Thursday morning.
• Video from the scene Wednesday showed heavily congested roads in the densely populated area as residents raced to flee the blaze.
• L.A. Mayor Karen Bass said on X she's "deploying LAPD officers to respond to Hollywood to help alleviate evacuation traffic" and officials were "working urgently to close roads, redirect traffic and expand access for LAFD vehicles to respond to the growing fire."
• The Hollywood Bowl confirmed on X that the iconic amphitheater's staff were among those impacted by evacuation orders.

Threat level: The fires began on Tuesday as powerful Santa Ana winds moved in, reaching hurricane intensity in many places.

• While winds subsided Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, they are forecast to strengthen again, complicating firefighting efforts.
• The National Weather Service in L.A. warned that "critical" fire weather conditions will last through Friday at 6pm local time, with wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph and extremely low humidity levels.
• Downtown L.A.'s weather observing station has seen its second-driest period on record from early May to the end of December, NWS data shows, with just 0.16 inches of rain during that period. Heat waves during the summer further dried out vegetation, turning it into the equivalent of kindling during this extreme wind event.

What they're saying: Los Angeles Fire Department spokesperson Margaret Stewart said Wednesday while it's normal for the region to have Santa Ana winds, the "strength of the winds is much higher" than the usual 30 to 50 miles per hour.

• "These are 50- to 80-some over 100 miles an hour," she said in a phone interview Wednesday.
• Los Angeles City Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a Wednesday briefing: "We knew there was a potential for significant threat to our constituents due to the weather event. High, high, high winds. I've never seen the winds in my 25-year career."
• Los Angeles Police Chief Jim McDonnell added: "What we saw here in the last 24 hours is unprecedented. I've never seen anything like this."

Between the lines: Climate change is causing an increase in days with extreme wildfire weather conditions as vegetation dries out faster and temperatures warm, per Axios' senior climate reporter Andrew Freedman.

• UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a Wednesday evening livestream that "multiple studies" suggest the Santa Ana winds will become much drier in a warming climate, associated with lower relative humidity.
• "We've certainly seen some record breaking low relative humidity during Santa Ana events recently, so that extremely low humidity will continue for a couple more days, and actually the Santa Ana winds will pick back up again," Swain said.
• He added the later wind event should be "more traditional, moderate," and primarily confined to the mountains and the valley.

Go deeper: LA's wildfires sparked by rare collision of climate factors

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Justice Samuel Alito spoke with President-elect Trump the day before the Republican leader's lawyers asked the Supreme Court to halt Friday's sentencing in his New York hush money case, the judge confirmed Wednesday.

What they're saying: Alito said in a statement first reported by ABC News that he agreed to take the call from Trump on Tuesday afternoon after his former clerk William Levi asked him to recommend him for a job in the incoming administration.

• "We did not discuss the emergency application he filed today, and indeed, I was not even aware at the time of our conversation that such an application would be filed," Alito said.
• "We also did not discuss any other matter that is pending or might in the future come before the Supreme Court or any past Supreme Court decisions involving the President-elect."

Why it matters: It's not unusual for justices to give job recommendations for former clerks, but the timing of the call, hours before the filing of an appeal against the conviction of what would be the first-ever criminal sentencing of a living president, drew criticism from advocates who've campaigned for more transparency in courts and raised ethics concerns.

What they're saying: Gabe Roth, executive director of the advocacy group Fix the Court, called the call "an unmistakable breach of protocol," per AP.

• "No person, no matter who they are, should engage in out-of-court communication with a judge or justice who's considering that person's case."
• Roth told the New York Times what made the call particularly problematic was recent ethical issues concerning the Supreme Court and especially Alito.

The other side: Carrie Severino, president of the conservative advocacy group JCN, on X called the reaction to Alito's call "the newest manufactured 'ethics' scandal over a simple reference check."

• She added, "The Left is once again making up fake ethics rules as a way to smear a justice who they despise for authoring the Dobbs opinion and faithfully following the Constitution" —  in reference to the Supreme Court's majority decision to overturn Roe v Wade and end federal abortion protections.

Zoom out: Trump's lawyers are asking for the Supreme Court to pause sentencing in the N.Y. case while his presidential immunity appeals play out.

• Representatives for Trump and the Supreme Court did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: Supreme Court adopts code of conduct for justices amid ethical scrutiny

Two of the most powerful labor groups in the country are teaming up, with the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) rejoining the AFL-CIO after nearly 20 years apart.

Why it matters: Organized labor is consolidating power ahead of Donald Trump's return to office.

Where it stands: SEIU's 2 million workers will join 12.5 million represented by the AFL-CIO.

• "We think we will be more powerful than ever as joint forces," AFL-CIO president Liz Shuler told Axios Wednesday afternoon.
• This reunion has been in the works for nearly two years, SEIU president April Verrett said. The aim was to build enough power to organize workers and push for pro-labor policies.
• "It's not a reaction to, or a statement about, Trump," she added. But with his return to the White House it is "an affirmation that we're doing the right thing and that now is the time."

Zoom in: SEIU represents many low-wage workers across its three branches — public sector employees, healthcare workers and those in building services (like janitors).

• Many are immigrants, including some who are undocumented and at risk under Trump's proposed deportation policies.
• "It's not just our undocumented or our immigrant workers that are worried about what a Trump administration can bring," says Verrett.
• There are other issues. About half the union's members depend on Medicaid, she said. Republicans have reportedly been considering cuts to the health insurance program to pay for an extension of the 2017 tax cuts.

Zoom out: The AFL-CIO is a huge federation of unions that includes all kinds of workers, from screen actors to teachers to miners. The organization provides policy and politics support to its affiliates — so they can focus on organizing and bargaining.

Flashback: SEIU split off from the group 20 years ago, as the service sector was becoming a bigger part of the economy. The unions' leaders had a pretty tense break-up. (The Teamsters also left the AFL-CIO at the time and haven't come back.)

• At the time, Democrats and union officials worried the schism would weaken the labor movement.
• Though unions have seen a resurgence recently — and SEIU has had some big success, with Fight for 15 in particular — organized labor's power has diminished over the decades.
• The share of the workforce that is unionized is at historic lows.
• "This [reunion] means a more unified labor movement," says Patricia Campos-Medina, a former union organizer who is now executive director at Cornell's Worker Institute.

The big picture: During his campaign, Trump positioned himself as an ally to workers. Teamsters president Sean O'Brien spoke at the Republican National Convention, and he's had some influence on the transition team.

• But both Shuler and Verrett were vocal supporters of vice president Kamala Harris.
• "SEIU would probably have benefitted from a Harris victory, and probably feels more threatened by a Trump administration than most other unions," says John Logan, a labor historian at San Francisco State University.
• Most union observers worry that the second Trump administration will follow the same sort of anti-labor roadmap as the first.

What's next: The unions will formally announce the move on Thursday afternoon in advance of a civil rights event in Austin.

Editor's Note: The headlines of this story have been updated to reflect details on the combination.

Fresh off their bruising 2024 losses, Democrats seem to more willing to engage with Republican legislation on issues like immigration and Israel.

Why it matters: The dynamic is putting some "messaging bills" that House Republicans passed in the previous Congress on a path to actually becoming law.

• The Laken Riley Act is picking up votes from Senate Democrats needed to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold.
• The bill would require the detention of undocumented immigrants arrested on theft-related charges and allow states to sue the federal government over crimes committed by immigrants.
• The legislation received 48 Democratic votes in the House on Wednesday, up from 37 when it was voted on last year. Seven Democrats who previously voted against it flipped to voting for it this week.

What they're saying: "You know, some of us have been talking about this for years," Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) told Axios. He's a centrist, border-district Democrat who voted both times for the bill.

• "I think after people saw what happened with the election, you definitely are seeing more people realize that what happens at the border is very important to the voters," Cuellar said.
• Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who is co-sponsoring the bill in the Senate, said Wednesday in a Fox News interview that if the bill can't get the seven Democratic votes it needs to pass the Senate, "that's a reason why we lost."

Yes, but: The election results were not the only factor that drove increased Democratic support for the bill.

• One House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said some votes flipped because it "was not the same bill as last year" with the removal of language hammering the Biden administration for its immigration policy.
• Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), a staunch Biden ally, cited that as the reason for him changing his vote.
• Still, the lawmaker who spoke anonymously also acknowledged: "Clearly the election will have some impact on how members see the world."

Zoom in: That dynamic could play out with a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court for issuing arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

• Several House Democrats told Axios it is possible the bill could get more Democratic votes than the 42 it received when it passed the House last June.
• Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) said there are "similar learning lessons for the Democratic Party" with each bill, noting that Democrats took a beating on Israel last year.
• "I think there will be Democrats that will look at it differently now," he said. "If you're asking people to take a side between Israel and the ICC, I think there will be more people than maybe previously that will vote for this."

The bottom line: "These message bills are hard, because the people at home believe the title and don't understand what's in them," said one senior House Democrat.

• "These are wedge issues, and we've got to really think about them ... it's all very complicated."

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is privately pressing his senators to create fireworks when they question President-elect Trump's nominees in the coming weeks, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: "Republicans spent four years attacking the Democratic brand and we need to use the hearings to begin returning the favor," Schumer told his top committee Democrats in a meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

• Schumer told the Democratic caucus in a lunch on Tuesday that they should grill Trump nominees on the MAGA agenda, and what they say it means for the American people.

The big picture: Schumer reminded senators that they have an opportunity to seize the narrative from a GOP that is convinced the public is on its side on the economy, the border and cultural issues.

• The combative strategy is also an indication that Schumer has decided that there's more political upside in challenging the MAGA movement than finding common ground with it.

What to watch: Expect Democrats to zero in on some of Trump's most high profile nominees as they come through the Senate over the next few weeks.

• That includes the likes of Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick to lead the Pentagon, and RFK Jr., the GOP nominee for HHS.

President-elect Trump is leaving the rest of his GOP trifecta hanging on their reconciliation stalemate.

Why it matters: Republican leaders on both sides of the Capitol have no interest in going against Trump. He has the power to quickly end this debate, but that's no closer after Wednesday's meeting with the Senate GOP.

• Trump pitched the idea of a single "beautiful bill," Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told reporters after the meeting. That's where the momentum is headed, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said.
• "[H]e heard from us that and from our leader that a two-bill strategy is very much still very interested in," Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) told reporters.

But Trump keeps making it clear: He really doesn't care about the process.

• That apparent indifference on this key question will force the House and Senate to attempt to resolve their differences among themselves.

Inside the room: Trump went over some of his early executive order plans, two sources in the room told Axios.

• Stephen Miller walked through the Day 1 immigration orders in detail, three sources told Axios. On his list is reimplementing Title 42, the pandemic-era rule that allows for the rapid expulsion of migrants at the border.
• About a dozen senators spoke during the meeting, with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) giving the most passionate defense of the two-bill strategy, two sources told Axios.
• Trump invited the senators and their spouses to Mar-a-Lago, but didn't name a date, two sources told us. Axios scooped his plans for a Senate bash last night.

The bottom line: If the one bill versus two question is hard, agreeing to a topline number should be a real treat.

P.S. Top Trump campaign staffer Alex Latcham will be executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, with former Sen. Cory Gardner serving as CEO and chairman of the board, Axios scooped on Wednesday.

The multitrillion-dollar bond market is sending a message to President-elect Trump and the new Congress: There is no fiscal free lunch to be had.

Why it matters: A surge in longer-term borrowing costs over the last couple of months may reflect deepening concern about high fiscal deficits among global investors who buy U.S. government debt.

• Regardless of the cause, it implies that as Republicans seek to extend Trump's tax cuts beyond this year, markets will pressure them to find spending cuts or other deficit-reducing offsets.

Driving the news: The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes reached 4.71% Wednesday morning, up from 3.62% in mid-September.

• Bloomberg cites evidence from futures markets that traders are positioning themselves for protection if rates were to rise further, to north of 5%.

The intrigue: This upward shift in longer-term rates has come despite a full percentage point of Fed interest rate cuts since September — with most Fed officials expecting a couple more rate cuts this year.

• It is a reminder that while the Fed controls short-term interest rates, longer-term rates are set in the bond market based on the outlook for inflation, growth, deficits and more.
• The details of why long-term rates are on the rise are important. This surge in rates has mostly not been driven by a changing inflation outlook, at least based on the relative prices of inflation-protected bonds.
• What appears to be happening is a rise in the "term premium," the compensation investors demand for the risk of buying longer-term debt.

State of play: It is impossible to know for sure why the term premium moves as it does, and technical factors around supply and demand for bonds are likely in play. But investor wariness of looming deficits is a textbook reason.

• Asked about the rise in yields at an event in Paris this morning, Fed governor Christopher Waller noted "more and more attention, concern about fiscal deficits."
• Waller also affirmed that he expects further Fed rate cuts to be justified this year, and said he doesn't expect tariffs to have a "significant or persistent effect on inflation."

What they're saying: "The market is telling us something, and it is very important for investors to have a view on why long rates are going up when the Fed is cutting," writes Apollo's Torsten Slok, noting it is a "highly unusual" situation.

Between the lines: Regardless of exactly why yields have surged, the fact that they have points to a very different macroeconomic environment than the nation faced eight years ago, when Republicans passed sweeping tax cuts in the first Trump term.

• In January 2017, the 10-year yield was a mere 2.4%.
• Borrowing costs are now meaningfully higher than forecast in the Congressional Budget Office's most recent projections. CBO's June budget forecasts assumed the 10-year yield would be 4.1% in 2025 and lower thereafter.

The bottom line: With rates higher, any given deficit-expanding policy will come at a higher cost — in terms of interest expense and higher rates — than it did when Trump was last in the Oval Office.

Federal Reserve officials are worried that President-elect Trump's trade and immigration policies will stoke inflation, according to minutes from their latest policy meeting released on Wednesday.

Why it matters: Higher tariffs and mass deportations could make America's bumpy battle against inflation more difficult. In that scenario, the Fed could keep interest rates higher for longer — and put the central bank on a collision course with Trump.

What they're saying: Fed officials agreed during a two-day policy meeting last month that inflation would continue to decline toward its 2% target. But the process might take longer than previously thought.

• Progress in bringing inflation down has already stalled and Trump's policies look more inflationary than not.
• "As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy," the minutes say.
• Officials also said supply chain disruptions from geopolitical events, strong consumer spending and quicker home price increases were other potential reasons why inflation might be harder to beat.

The big picture: The Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point at the end of its Dec. 17-18 meeting. But new economic projections released alongside that decision showed the median Fed official expected just two rate cuts in 2025 — half as many as anticipated just three months earlier.

• The projections also showed higher inflation for a longer period than previously thought. At a press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters that some officials had factored potential impacts from Trump's policies into those projections.

The minutes released on Wednesday don't mention Trump by name, but they do show the extent to which officials fretted over the upside risks to inflation — even as details about potential trade and immigration policies remain fuzzy.

• All Fed officials agreed that "uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated."
• Notably, a few officials said it could be hard to assess whether any upward pressure on inflation will be fleeting or stick around.
• "[I]t might be difficult to distinguish more persistent influences on inflation from potentially temporary ones, such as those stemming from changes in trade policy that could lead to shifts in the level of prices," the minutes show.

The other side: One Fed governor, Christopher Waller, said in a speech on Wednesday that he expects further rate cuts in 2025 and that tariffs wouldn't notably stoke inflation.

• "If, as I expect, tariffs do not have a significant or persistent effect on inflation, they are unlikely to affect my view of appropriate monetary policy," Waller said.

The bottom line: Trump said interest rates were too high at a press conference on Tuesday — reminiscent of his Fed criticism during his first term.

• No one knows how Trump's policies will weigh on the economy. For now, inflation is no longer on the back-burner for the Fed as it was when the central bank first started cutting rates.