Iran's recent nuclear advances give President-elect Trump a crucial decision to make in his first months in office: Try to neutralize the threat through negotiations and pressure, or order a military strike.

Why it matters: Trump's decision in 2018 to withdraw from an Obama-era nuclear deal prompted Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program, such that it's now a de facto "nuclear threshold state." Officials and diplomats from the U.S., EU and Israel all told Axios they expect Trump to face an Iran crisis in 2025.

State of play: Trump and his advisers are planning to quickly return to the "maximum pressure" campaign they conducted against Iran between 2018 and 2020.

Behind the scenes: Several Trump advisers privately concede Iran's program is now so far along that the strategy might not be effective. That makes a military option a real possibility.

• After Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer met Trump at Mar-a-Lago in November, Dermer came away thinking there was a high likelihood Trump would either support an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities — something the Israelis are seriously considering — or even order a U.S. strike, two sources who spoke with Dermer after the meeting tell Axios.
• Some top advisers to President Biden have privately argued in recent weeks for striking Iran's nuclear sites before Trump takes office, with Iran and its proxies so badly weakened by their war with Israel, sources familiar with those discussions told Axios.
• With Biden now down to his final two weeks, there are no active discussions about bombing Iran.

The flipside: Others close to Trump expect that he'll seek a deal before considering a strike.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with Chinese TV last week that Iran is ready to resume negotiations with the U.S. and other world powers to get a new nuclear deal.
• Both sides would have to overcome years of animosity to work toward an agreement. For one thing, U.S. prosecutors accused Tehran of attempting to have Trump killed last year.

What they're saying: "Anything can happen," Trump told Time in November, when asked about the possibility of war with Iran. "It's a very volatile situation."

• "2025 will be an important year regarding Iran's nuclear issue," Araghchi said last week in Beijing.

Driving the news: Despite all of the crises on the global agenda, a senior diplomat who attended a virtual meeting of the G7 countries two weeks ago tells Axios it ended with the conclusion that Iran would be the primary issue to contend with in 2025.

• "Everyone agreed that we will have to do something or there will be a huge crisis," the diplomat said.
• That's not only because Iran has shrunk its nuclear breakout time down to a matter of days, but also because the ability of the Western powers to "snap back" crippling nuclear sanctions on Iran under the 2015 nuclear deal will expire in October.
• That means the U.S. and its European allies would lose much of their economic leverage over Iran, adding urgency to diplomatic efforts in the first half of the year.

Zoom in: Senior diplomats from the E3 (France, Germany and the U.K.) and Iran met in Geneva in late November to discuss the possibility of resuming nuclear negotiations.

• The European diplomats made clear the 2015 nuclear deal is null and void and a new deal would have to address the current status of Iran's nuclear program, a European diplomat and two other sources with knowledge of the meeting tell Axios.
• They also warned they would trigger "snapback" sanctions if a deal isn't reached by summer.
• The Iranians said that in such a scenario, Iran would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and end all UN inspections and monitoring of its nuclear facilities.

What's next: Another E3-Iran meeting is scheduled for Jan. 13.

What they're saying: "2025 will be an important year regarding Iran's nuclear issue," Araghchi said last week.

The bottom line: Trump will take office with fewer options to contain or destroy Iran's program than he had in 2017, and less time to decide.

President Biden is moving to block about 625 million acres of offshore areas from future oil and gas drilling, the White House announced Monday morning.

Why it matters: The sweeping actions — which drew strong criticism from the oil industry — may hinder President-elect Trump's ability to quickly deliver on plans to scale up fossil fuel production.

• The steps rely on a provision from a 72-year-old law and affect wildlife-rich areas in the northern Bering Sea; eastern Pacific Ocean off the West Coast; the eastern Gulf of Mexico; and areas up and down the East Coast.

Driving the news: The steps, in the form of two presidential memos, are designed to permanently protect vast tracts of offshore lands to potentially benefit states dependent on fisheries and tourism.

• Withdrawing hundreds of millions of acres — equivalent in size to the states of Alaska, California and Colorado — from potential leasing may also help limit greenhouse gas emissions that are causing global warming.

Unlike executive orders that Trump could overturn with the stroke of a pen, Biden's actions rely on an open-ended provision in the 1953 Outer Contintental Shelf Lands Act.

• This law governs energy leasing activities for submerged lands under U.S. control that are beyond three miles from shore.
• A provision in the act allows the president to permanently take parts of the Outer Continental Shelf off the table for leasing activities, without providing a means for another president to undo the action.

What they're saying: "Congress and the incoming administration should fully leverage the nation's vast offshore resources as a critical source of affordable energy, government revenue and stability around the world," American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers said in a statement.

• "We urge policymakers to use every tool at their disposal to reverse this politically motivated decision and restore a pro-American energy approach to federal leasing."

Between the lines: Kevin Book of research firm ClearView Energy Partners told Axios in an email that congressional Republicans could include a provision reinstating some or all of the offshore areas in any filibuster-proof budget reconciliation bills.

The big picture: Biden is portraying the steps as part of his environmental legacy, which has included major climate legislation and land conservation efforts.

• "As the climate crisis continues to threaten communities across the country and we are transitioning to a clean energy economy, now is the time to protect these coasts for our children and grandchildren," Biden said in a statement.

Yes, but: Many of the regions to be protected are locations that the oil and gas industry had either not shown strong interest in for development. Other protections would apply to places where states put up stiff resistance against drilling.

• This applies particularly to California and Florida, both of which have consistently opposed offshore drilling.
• During Trump's first term, he exempted a region from North Carolina to Florida from drilling for 10 years, given political opposition to such activities in these coastal states.
• The industry has largely backed off from expensive forays into Arctic drilling, including the Bering Sea where there are no active or pending lease sales.
• However, human-caused Arctic climate change is making the region far more accessible for development and shipping routes, and could entice companies to explore for fossil fuel resources in coming years.

Friction point: Oil and gas companies have shown interest in drilling in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where significant resources are thought to be accessible.

• That makes the designation of this region as off limits to be particularly notable and potentially controversial, even with Florida's opposition to offshore drilling for environmental reasons.
• The use of the law, which grants the president broad power to alter the regions subject to oil and gas leasing, is likely to be tested in court.
• One district court ruling from 2019, which involved a step taken during the Obama administration, held that only Congress could overturn a president's use of the provision within the law.

The bottom line: While Trump can still move forward with plans to boost land-based oil and gas production, he will now face new legal hurdles on offshore drilling.

"Flow," Latvian director Gints Zilbalodis' acclaimed movie, beat some heavy-hitters to win Best Motion Picture (Animated) at the 2025 Golden Globes.

The big picture: The 85-minute movie about a cat displaced by a flood won the award over two Disney films, the new "Wallace & Gromit" entry and "The Wild Robot."

What they're saying: Zilbalodis told Axios on the Golden Globes red carpet Sunday why he chose to capture animals in their natural state for the film.

• "We looked at cat and dog videos. We wanted them to behave like animals, they don't speak, they don't tell jokes... I think animals are so funny and interesting, we don't need to change them," Zilbalodis said.

How to watch: "Flow" is still showing in theaters and will be available to rent or buy digitally this week.

President Biden said in a Washington Post op-ed on the eve of the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack's fourth anniversary there's an "unrelenting effort" under way to "rewrite — even erase — the history of that day."

Why it matters: President-elect Trump has suggested he might pardon the rioters who took part in the assault on the Capitol when he takes office, claiming they're "hostages" who've been "wrongfully imprisoned" for their actions on Jan. 6, 2021.

Driving the news: Biden wrote in the WaPo article that efforts to explain the attack away "as a protest that just got out of hand" and to "dismiss concerns about it as some kind of partisan obsession" do not reflect what happened on Jan. 6.

• "Violent insurrectionists attacked the Capitol, threatened the lives of elected officials and assaulted brave law enforcement officers," Biden wrote.
• "We should be proud that our democracy withstood this assault. And we should be glad we will not see such a shameful attack again this year," added Biden, who noted that Vice President Harris would on Monday "preside over the certification of her opponent's victory in the November election."
• "But we should not forget. We must remember the wisdom of the adage that any nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it. We cannot accept a repeat of what occurred four years ago."

Zoom in: The president said the U.S. should commit to remembering Jan. 6, 2021, every year," to remember it "as a day when our democracy was put to the test and prevailed" and to "remember that democracy — even in America — is never guaranteed."

Biden said the truth of what occurred four years ago cannot be lost because in time, "there will be Americans who didn't witness the Jan. 6 riot firsthand but will learn about it from footage and testimony of that day, from what is written in history books and from the truth we pass on to our children."

• He added: "We cannot allow the truth to be lost."
• Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: Reagan-appointed judge slams "preposterous" claims about Jan. 6 "hostages"

New York City's congestion pricing went into effect in the center of Manhattan on Sunday, one day after a federal judge rejected a request from New Jersey officials to halt the program.

Why it matters: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority says the first road toll policy of its kind in the U.S. is aimed at reducing traffic jams, boosting public transit use and improving air quality by charging up to $9 per day in the Congestion Relief Zone.

• The policy has been strongly opposed by leading figures including N.Y.-born President-elect Trump, who wants to stop it, and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D), whose office vowed on Saturday to continue fighting the toll.

How it works: Per the MTA, the zone that came into effect at midnight Sunday includes roads in Manhattan south of and including 60 Street in an area.

• Excluded is the FDR Drive, West Side Highway/Route 9A, and the Hugh L. Carey Tunnel connections to West Street.
• Most drivers are charged via an E-ZPass toll collection system, with passenger and small commercial vehicles paying $9 during the peak periods of 5am-9pm on weekdays, and from 9am-9pm on weekends. The rate is $2.25 during the overnight period.
• Motorcyclists pay a one-off daily rate of $4.50 during the peak period and $1.05 during the overnight period.
• There's a credit of up to $3 for passenger vehicles and $1.50 for motorcycles for those who've paid to enter Manhattan via certain tunnels, except for overnight because the MTA says "the toll is reduced by 75% from the peak period toll" then.

State of play: MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber said at a Sunday briefing 12 hours into the program that so far things had "gone smoothly," but it's too early get an accurate measure of the program's success.

• "This is a toll system that has never been tried before in terms of complexity," Liber said. "Everybody's going to have to adjust to this," he added.
• "We will start to know specific numbers and have some comparatives within a few days, and we're going to share that information publicly."

Stunning stat: New York City had the most congested traffic in the world in 2023, with drivers losing 101 hours to traffic jams during peak commuting times, per INRIX, a transportation analytics company.

Flashback: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) paused implementing the policy last June, citing concerns about plans to charge drivers $15.

What they're saying: Murphy has cited "economic strains" and inflation concerns for opposing NYC's policy.

• The president-elect, whose Trump Tower building is in the congestion zone, in a November statement said: "Not only is this a massive tax to people coming in, it is extremely inconvenient from both driving and personal booking keeping standards.
• He added: "It will be virtually impossible for New York City to come back as long as the congestion tax is in effect."
• Lieber said he thinks Trump "understands, being on Fifth Avenue — living on Fifth Avenue, 59th Street — what traffic is doing to our city."
• The MTA chief is "hopeful that although there has been some rhetoric about this, that we will continue to work with the federal government and get through the change of administration."

Go deeper: New York City braces for congestion pricing

Fixing America's elevators is becoming a heavy lift.

Why it matters: The U.S. has about 1 million elevators, with Americans traveling about 2.55 billion miles a year altogether on elevators and escalators, according to trade association National Elevator Industry.

The big picture: America's aging elevators are time-consuming and costly to fix.

• The workforce of technicians who know how to fix them is aging.
• And buildings with elevators in need of repair often need to wait ages for replacement parts due to arcane supply-chain issues.

What they're saying: "Everyone is born needing an elevator, and if they're lucky they die needing one too," says Stephen Smith, executive director of the Center for Building in North America, who has studied America's elevator issues.

Threat level: When elevators are out of order, people who are unable to take the stairs or have difficulty doing so are thrust into a crisis.

• The upper levels of tall buildings are effectively rendered useless until repairs can be made.
• Nearly 1.1 million Americans end up in the emergency room every year due to incidents stemming from taking the stairs, according to a study published in 2017 based on data from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System.
• The number of injuries from elevator trips is miniscule, Smith says: "The real safety problem with elevators is we don't have enough of them."

Reports of inconveniences are widespread:

• In San Jose, California, residents of a supportive housing complex were stranded for more than a week when their second elevator went down, according to the San Jose Spotlight.
• In Fort Lauderdale, Florida, both elevators at an affordable housing complex were out of service for more than a month, stranding elderly residents, according to 7 News Miami.
• In Detroit, which "is full of old elevators," there are "fewer people who know how to fix them" — and that's contributed to construction delays, according to Crain's Detroit Business.

Zoom in: Elevator parts shortages appear to stem largely from two issues: Parts suppliers often prioritize their biggest customers, which in this case happens to be builders in China, where the vast majority of the world's new elevators are installed, according to Smith.

• And parts are often no longer available for aging — and often obsolete — elevators, meaning they often have to be custom made.
• "In some cases, the entire elevator system may need to be modernized or replaced, leading to substantial costs and potential disruptions to building operations," an advisory called The Elevator Consultants reports.

State of play: A patchwork of state regulations and union rules make it laborious for building owners and contractors to comply with current standards, according to Smith. who said the U.S. would benefit from federal elevator standards.

• "The feds have not involved themselves in regulations of the construction industry since Reagan took an axe to it in the 1980s," Smith said.

Yes, but: The good news is that "about 80 percent of reliability issues can be solved by replacing the doors," Joseph Bera, at VP at Schindler Elevators, tells commercial real estate publication Propmodo.

The bottom line: When elevators get stuck in repair mode, the public suffers.

Contributing: Alex Fitzpatrick

The FBI identified the perpetrator in the New Year's Day attack in New Orleans as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old Texas man.

Zoom in: New Orleans police fatally shot Jabbar on Bourbon Street in the moments after the attack after he stepped out of his truck and opened fire. He was pronounced dead at the scene, investigators said.

• The attack killed 14 people and injured about 35 others. Read their stories.

Here's what we know about Jabbar:

Early life and military service

Jabbar grew up in Beaumont, Texas, according to the New York Times, whose reporters interviewed Jabbar's half-brother, Abdur Rahim Jabbar IV.

• Jabbar's father grew up Christian, but later converted to Islam. Jabbar converted as well, the newspaper reported.
• Later, Jabbar's mother moved him and some of his siblings to Houston, where Jabbar eventually attended the University of Houston. He lost a scholarship there because of how much he was partying at the time, his half-brother told the Times.

Jabbar's eight-year military career in the U.S. Army began by 2007, during which he made a tour to Afghanistan and earned the Global War on Terrorism medal, the New York Times says.

• After the military, Jabbar earned a degree from Georgia State University, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution reports.

Recent years

The edges of Jabbar's personal life appear to have been fraying in recent years.

• As he finalized his third divorce, Jabbar was in severe debt by 2021, according to NBC News, which detailed his financial troubles and a short-lived job as a real estate agent before he secured a job at Deloitte. The company confirmed his employment to NBC.

Jabbar was also starting to indicate more radicalized thinking, posting audio recordings online of his own Islamic teachings and stating opinions about what he described as the evils of music, according to The Times-Picayune.

The attack

Jabbar made at least two visits to New Orleans before the New Year's Day attack, FBI investigators said Sunday.

• During those visits, he recorded video of Bourbon Street while wearing Meta glasses.
• Then, in the hours just before the attack, Jabbar posted five videos to Facebook explaining that his actions were inspired by ISIS.

Originally, FBI Deputy assistant director Christopher Raia said Thursday, Jabbar indicated plans to harm his friends and family but worried headlines about the attack wouldn't focus on what Raia quoted as a "war between believers and disbelievers."

• Jabbar "was 100% inspired by ISIS," Raia said, noting that Jabbar said in the videos that he'd joined ISIS before last summer and provided a will and testament.
• Authorities contended Sunday that Jabbar acted alone, adding that there were no indications he had accomplices in the United States but they were still investigating outside of the country.
• He was in Cairo, Egypt, and Ontario, Canada, in the summer of 2023, the FBI said, and were working to confirm the purposes of those trips.

Melania Trump will be the subject of an Amazon Prime Video documentary, an Amazon spokesperson said Sunday.

The big picture: The movie, called an "unprecedented, behind-the-scenes look" into Trump's life, began filming last month and is currently scheduled for a 2025 release, the spokesperson said in a statement.

• The movie will be a theatrical and streaming release, the statement said.

Zoom in: Though no details were shared as to what the documentary will cover, its filming corresponds with President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House.

• Melania Trump will be an executive producer on the documentary, along with New Element Media's Fernando Sulichin.
• Brett Ratner, of RatPac Entertainment, will direct the project, per the statement.

Between the lines: Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has been mired in controversy regarding President-elect Trump in recent months, including allegedly barring the Washington Post from endorsing Vice President Harris in 2024.

• Bezos denied that he knew of the decision not to endorse, but said he agreed with it as newspaper endorsements "create a perception of bias. A perception of non-independence."
• "Ending them is a principled decision, and it's the right one," he wrote in a column for the Post.

Go deeper: Melania Trump skips the White House

In the wake of the New Year's Day attack that killed over a dozen people in New Orleans, officials are reckoning with how they protect against — and track — enemies within U.S. borders.

Meanwhile, a new congressional class faces a snowy start to its session and a sweeping agenda from the incoming president.

Here's what you may have missed when newsmakers hit the airwaves this Sunday, January 5.

1. Balancing threat surveillance and protected speech

Lone wolf attackers are "extraordinarily difficult to detect," said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), the ranking member on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

• That difficulty is further compounded when surveilling budding threats from Americans, Himes explained on CBS News' "Face the Nation."

The big picture: "If you're in this country, you have constitutional rights — meaning the FBI can't say, without a warrant, I want your Facebook posts, I want your e-mails," he said. "That's what makes this very hard."

Zoom out: The exact motivations and plan of the New Orleans attacker, identified as U.S. citizen and Army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar, are under investigation.

• But in several social media posts, Jabbar proclaimed support for ISIS, and an ISIS flag was recovered from the rented truck used in the attack.

Friction point: In the aftermath of the deadly attack, local leaders have been under scrutiny over whether they could have prevented the tragedy via physical security measures, leaving the crowded street less exposed.

On a broader level, the intelligence community faces the challenge of monitoring threats before an attack is implemented — in this case, when a threat actor begins showing signs of radicalization on social media.

Yes, but: It's not as easy as it may seem.

• "If somebody is standing out on the street corner right now saying, ISIS is the greatest thing in the world, and the president is a traitor ... people would say, boy, we should interview that person — that is constitutionally protected speech," Himes explained.
• Himes continued, "This individual in New Orleans did post some Facebook posts saying, I pledge allegiance to ISIS ... What if we had that debate? Should Facebook have instantly submitted that to the FBI? And if so, where's the line?"

Threat level: There "seem to be some real ISIS connections here that need to be followed up," Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said on ABC's "This Week."

• He likened the attack to the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, pointing to Jabbar's trip to Cairo, Egypt, which FBI officials said occurred in 2023.

Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, said that beyond the threat of lone wolves, there are actors who have come across the border affiliated with outside groups that "still pose a threat to Americans and to the United States."

• Turner said the New Orleans investigation may uncover times when "we could have intervened."
• "Those will give us greater opportunities at which we'll look to how we might be able to, in the future, find others," he said.

2. The reconciliation bill(s) battle

Get ready for "one big, beautiful bill."

• At least, that's what House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says he and Trump are envisioning: a single reconciliation package that covers a myriad of MAGA goals, addressing the border, tax reform, the debt ceiling and more.
• If it comes to fruition, Axios' Mike Allen and Stef Kight report, it could be the biggest bill in American history.

State of play: The bill would harness the budget reconciliation process to push its way through. That method allows budget-related bills to bypass the Senate's filibuster (60 votes), with only a simple majority needed.

• The benefit of presenting a plethora of policies together, Johnson said on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures," is that there's something everyone can enjoy.
• "No one's going to love every element of a large package like that, but there'll be enough elements in there to pull everyone along," he said.

Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) said he's "for doing it in one bill" on CNN's "State of the Union."

• But he added he wants to see the Trump agenda done "as quickly as we can," whether that's in "one reconciliation bill, if it's two, if it's ten."

Yes, but: Not everyone loves the idea. Some Senate Republicans have voiced concern that pushing one massive bill through will slow down securing the border.

• "I'm very worried that if we don't put border first and get it done, it's going to be a nightmare for our national security," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Fox's Maria Bartiromo.

The bottom line: While the GOP will hold a Washington trifecta, Johnson faces a razor-thin majority in the House and Trump's one-bill vision could test party unity.

3. No snow day for Congress

Neither rain nor snow will keep Congress from working tomorrow, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures."

The big picture: Washington D.C. is forecast to see between 6 to 10 inches of snow on Monday, but federal law mandates Congress certify election results on Jan. 6.

What he's saying: "We encouraged all of our colleagues 'do not leave town, stay here,'" Johnson said.

• "Whether we are in a blizzard or not, we are going to be in that chamber making sure this is done," he said.

State of play: Other Republicans have weighed in on the weather, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) posting to X that she "will walk to the Capitol" if she has to.

• "Unless @elonmusk has figured out how to control the weather it looks bad. If you are a Republican member of Congress I'd get to Washington," Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) wrote on X.

More from Axios' Sunday coverage:

• John Thune is still willing to challenge Trump
• "Major" winter storm to usher in severe Arctic outbreak across U.S.
• Klobuchar knows of no Democrats objecting to certifying Trump's win

New Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said in an interview aired Sunday that he's willing to tell President-elect Trump if he thinks he's wrong.

The big picture: Trump has a storied history of rocky relationships with some Congressional leaders, and there is precedent for how the tone between the president-elect and Hill leaders has soured when Congress hasn't acted as Trump wished.

• Thune has issued in a new era for Senate Republicans, who were led by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for nearly two decades.
• McConnell's relationship with Trump was often contentious. What's yet to be seen is how Thune will navigate the water under the bridge between him and Trump as he oversees the GOP's slim majority in the chamber.

Driving the news: "We [Thune and Trump] have the same set of objectives; we want to get to the same destination, but I think, at times, there'll be differences in how we get there," the South Dakota Republican said on CBS News' "Face the Nation."

• He told Margaret Brennan he'll have to be able to "share and convey" to Trump the "unique aspects of how the Senate operates" and "help him understand ... what the contours are of what we can accomplish here in the Senate and what's realistic."
• In a separate interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," Thune characterized his relationship with Trump as "evolving," saying the two have an "alignment of incentives."

Catch up quick: Thune publicly called on Trump to exit the race in 2016 in the aftermath of the infamous Access Hollywood Tape (but said he'd still vote for Trump shortly after) and condemned Trump's actions around the Jan. 6 attack as "inexcusable."

• Trump slammed Thune as a "RINO," or Republican in name only, and labeled him "Mitch's boy."
• Thune supported Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) in the Republican primary race ahead of the 2024 election. Even after Trump became the party's nominee, Thune criticized his sweeping tariff proposals as a "recipe for increased inflation," per the South Dakota Searchlight.

Yes, but: Thune has recently worked to mend their relationship, meeting with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

• Now, Thune says, the GOP is "united behind President Trump's agenda."

Go deeper: Who is John Thune, the new Senate GOP leader replacing Mitch McConnell

President-elect Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) plan to push for what could wind up as the biggest bill in American history — a mega-MAGA reordering of taxes, the nation's borders, federal spending and regulations, transition and Hill sources tell Axios. 

Why it matters: Washington will soon witness a furious, multitrillion-dollar legislative and lobbying fight that likely will dominate politics through late spring and possibly beyond.

At stake: Unprecedented spending to tighten borders and remove people here illegally, huge tax cuts, energy deregulation — plus, presumably, unprecedented spending cuts to help pay for it all. 

• We're told the bill will include Trump's popular "no tax on tips" campaign promise. Raising the federal debt ceiling could be included.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates extending the tax cuts from Trump's first term could cost $5 trillion over 10 years.

• So look for a conservative push for significant spending offsets. Senate Republicans have already been busy finding ways to pay for parts of the plan via spending cuts + energy revenue.

Between the lines: Each piece is complicated and costly on its own. Rolling it all into one fat package is unlike anything Washington has done before.

• The margin of error is so slim: As Friday's chaotic House speaker election showed, just a handful of House Republicans can sink any bill. The GOP margin will soon shrink temporarily to zero.

Republicans, who'll control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue in 15 days, initially were inclined to split up the border and tax packages into a two-track process.

• In mid-December, the hard-right House Freedom Caucus sent Johnson a letter insisting on two bills: "border security must move first — and then we should move forward to a second, larger reconciliation bill covering taxes, spending, energy, bureaucracy, and more."
• The one-track plan is based on the calculation that one big, Trump-branded bill has a better chance of passage than splitting it up. "It motivates people to vote for it," a transition source tells us.

Behind the scenes: The strategy was hotly debated — and only crystallized during a New Year's Day meeting at Mar-a-Lago with Trump, Vice President-elect Vance, Johnson and aides, the sources tell us.

• Both the Trump and Johnson teams made sure each has buy-in.

At the New Year's meeting, the group hashed out pros and cons: Split bills could mean a quick, flashy win on the border. But one bill would give Johnson leverage to force his conference's warring factions to all come to the table.

• In a split scenario, hardliners might insist on passing a border bill, before they discuss raising or eliminating the cap on federal deductions for state and local taxes (SALT). Members from high-tax states might do the opposite.

The logic: We're told Johnson thinks you can squeeze members harder to pass a single "Trump bill" than one-offs.

• The speaker figures that in a big deal, even though everyone will find something not to like, there'll be too much to love.

State of play: The bill would use the budget reconciliation process, which allows budget-related bills to bypass the Senate's 60-vote filibuster. So only a simple majority is needed.

• On Saturday, the day after his dramatic re-election as speaker, Johnson unveiled the plan for a unified reconciliation bill to House Republicans during a closed-door policy retreat at Fort McNair in Washington. Channeling Trumpian lingo, Johnson has called it "one big, beautiful bill."
• "I want to compliment the Trump administration and the team. They've worked so well with us," Johnson told his members, in comments reported by Punchbowl and confirmed by Axios.

What we're hearing: Some Senate Republicans are frustrated by the turn toward a single bill. So the conversation may not be over.

• A big concern among Senate Republicans is that one bill would take too long: They worry they won't be able to move fast enough to secure the border, opening them up to criticism, sources tell us.

Reality check: This is all easier said than done. Every faction within the GOP, and every powerful donor and industry, will want their hobby horse in this bill.

The bottom line: This is likely to take longer than the storied 100 days, which will end April 30. The most optimistic timeline for mega-bill passage is late spring (April or May) — which really means June, and could even take until fall.

Axios' Andrew Solender contributed reporting.

Texas, Florida and Iowa are home to some of America's fastest-growing large counties, per an Axios analysis of the latest census data.

Why it matters: This zoomed-in view offers a close look at population change within individual states — for instance, there's huge growth around Texas' major cities, but many of its rural counties are shrinking.

Driving the news: Kaufman County (+35.2% more people in 2019-2023 compared to 2014-2018), Comal County (+29.2%) and Hays County (+25.6%) — all in Texas — are the country's fastest-growing counties with more than 100,000 residents, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2019-2023 five-year American Community Survey.

• Robeson County, North Carolina (-12.4%); Hinds County, Mississippi (-8%) and Butte County, California (-7.8%) saw the biggest decreases among large counties.

Zoom in: County-level populations either grew or showed little change across a handful of Pacific Northwest and New England states, including Washington, Oregon and Maine.

Threat level: Some of the country's fastest-growing areas are also among the most vulnerable to climate change.

Between the lines: Although Americans sometimes relocate domestically in search of better jobs, lower costs and so on, international migration is the main driver behind population growth at the national level.

• Migration "accounted for 84% of the nation's 3.3 million increase in population between 2023 and 2024," the Census Bureau said in a recent write-up of separate data.
• "This reflects a continued trend of rising international migration, with a net increase of 1.7 million in 2022 and 2.3 million in 2023."

What's next: Population trends could be notably affected by President-elect Trump's plan to deport millions of people.

President Biden is being pressured to grant a posthumous pardon for Marcus Garvey — a Black nationalist who was influential to Malcolm X, Nelson Mandela and later generations of Black Panther Party activists.

Why it matters: The Jamaican-born Garvey was convicted of mail fraud on June 21, 1923, in a case that supporters have long said was politically motivated and aimed at discrediting his growing popularity among Black Americans amid lynchings and racial violence.

The big picture: The pardon request comes as lawmakers push for more clemency actions before Biden leaves office and after the president's unpopular decision to pardon his son, Hunter Biden.

• Last month, President Biden commuted the sentences of 1,500 Americans in home confinement during the pandemic and pardoned 39 others, setting a record for clemency in one day, according to the White House.

Catch up quick: Part of the Congressional Black Caucus, led by Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.), sent a letter in late December urging President Biden to exonerate Garvey.

• Garvey's 91-year-old son, Dr. Julius Garvey, has also publicly urged Biden to grant the pardon, which he and others have sought since 1987.
• They say a pardon would correct a century-old injustice.
• "His name needs to be cleared. The purpose of the pardon is really to exonerate, " Dr. Garvey, a retired cardiothoracic and vascular surgeon, told Axios.

Flashback: The elder Garvey founded the Universal Negro Improvement Association (UNIA) in 1914, which championed Black pride, economic independence and Pan-Africanism.

• He advocated for Black-owned businesses and a "Back-to-Africa" movement envisioning a unified Africa led by Black people.
• Seen as a hero in Jamaica, many of Garvey's ideas about economic empowerment and global unity remain relevant today.
• Some Black critics, including W. E. B. Du Bois, denounced his Black separatist views and his relationship with the Ku Klux Klan, who shared Garvey's goal of racial separatism.

Garvey was convicted of mail fraud for promoting stock sales for his Black Star Line shipping company with allegedly misleading materials, including an image of a ship the company had not yet acquired.

• Garvey's prosecution was closely tied to the efforts of J. Edgar Hoover, who later became the first director of the FBI. Hoover's actions are seen as a systematic effort to undermine Black leaders.
• Garvey served two years in prison before President Coolidge commuted his sentence in 1927, but he was deported to Jamaica, and his conviction was never overturned. He died in London in 1940 at the age of 52.

What they're saying: "Biden pardoned his son, which is something that he claimed he wasn't going to do because his son was found guilty and pled guilty to tax evasion charges," Dr. Garvey said.

• "So it's a no-brainer—why couldn't he pardon Marcus Garvey? Or why wouldn't he pardon Marcus Garvey?"
• "We don't know that there's any specific reason why he shouldn't, except the general attitude, which is systematic.

The Biden administration did not respond to requests for comment to Axios.

Between the lines: "This isn't just about Marcus Garvey—it's about correcting history," Justin Hansford, a professor at Howard University's School of Law and executive director of the Thurgood Marshall Civil Rights Center, told Axios.

• Hansford, who first learned about Garvey while reading "The Autobiography of Malcolm X," said he was surprised to discover that Malcolm X's parents were Garveyites.
• Hansford has dedicated years to studying Garvey's case, authored a book about him, and has relentlessly advocated for his exoneration through legal means. He was deeply affected by Garvey's legacy.
• "He was painted as a fraudster and a con artist by those who sought to silence him," the professor said.
• "History is the lens through which we see the world," Hansford explained. "If we don't correct these wrongs, we teach our children that the fight for freedom is something to be punished—not celebrated."

The bottom line: Dr. Garvey emphasized that the fight to clear his father's name will continue regardless of who is in the White House.

• "We haven't asked (President) Trump before, but it was raised by Roger Stone, one of Trump's supporters, some years ago," Garvey said. "We'll see how it goes, but it's important for me that my father's name is cleared. We'll continue our efforts—whoever is president."

Filing a legal complaint is rapidly becoming the self-publishing option of choice for individuals looking to make explosive public allegations — regardless of whether they actually care about a judge finding in their favor.

Why it matters: In an era of steadily declining trust in media, the dry formalities of a legal template provide not only an imprimatur of institutional credibility, but also the freedom to go into extreme amounts of detail without seeming petty, tedious or self-indulgent.

Driving the news: Actress Blake Lively is in a war of legal filings with her co-star Justin Baldoni.

• Lively's complaint immediately changed her public reputation.
• As communications guru Lulu Cheng Meservey said on X: "What happens with the legal complaint from here? In my opinion, it doesn't even matter. She's won."
• Baldoni then filed his own lawsuit laying out his side of the story. It's framed as a defamation suit against the New York Times, but in practice fires back in the PR war with Lively. (The Times denied defaming Baldoni.)

Flashback: Similar tactics were employed by actress Sophie Turner, who fired off a legal complaint against her soon-to-be ex-husband that invoked international child abduction clauses through the Hague Convention.

• Legal filings have also been part of Drake's arsenal in his longstanding rivalry with Kendrick Lamar.
• Women have used lawsuits as a way to go public with accusations that powerful men — including Sean Combs and Leon Black — have committed sexual assault. (Both denied wrongdoing and neither were convicted of a crime, but the suits impacted both of their careers — and, in the case of Combs, helped land him in jail.)

When billionaire investor Bill Ackman wanted various Business Insider journalists and editors to be fired for publishing a story about his wife, he made public a 77-page letter from his lawyer, Elizbeth Locke.

• "The demand letter reads remarkably similarly to the pleadings of a lawsuit," Ackman noted on X. "If needed, we can convert the demand letter into a complaint and file a lawsuit."
• Ackman was clear that his end goal was to "end Business Insider's unethical and unprofessional practices" — which is not the kind of thing that can be forced by a judge in a court of law.
• Ackman demanded that then-Business Insider editor-in-chief Nicholas Carlson be fired — something that Mathias Döpfner, the CEO of BI's parent company, reportedly seriously considered.
• Carlson has since departed the company for other pursuits, taking BI founder Henry Blodget with him. John Cook, the editor of the contentious articles, also departed, for the Wall Street Journal.

Where it stands: The internet has given the power of the printing press to everyone — but for that very reason, self-published posts on X or Medium or a personal blog are often treated with a healthy degree of skepticism, and serious journalists often avoid reporting on them.

• By framing allegations in the form of a legal complaint, accusers give themselves an institutional imprimatur, much as Émile Zola did when he published "J'Accuse" on the front page of the newspaper L'Aurore.

The bottom line: Lawsuits are often used just as a way of inflicting expensive litigation on others. Now they're also being used to try to bring about outcomes no jurist can hand down in judgment.

Six days of funeral services for former President Jimmy Carter, who died at home Sunday at 100 years old, began on Saturday with a procession in Georgia.

The big picture: Carter is the country's longest-living former president and the first to reach 100 years old.

State of play: Memorial events include a departure ceremony at Phoebe Sumter Medical Center in Americus, Georgia followed by a trip to Carter's childhood home in Plains, a motorcade to Atlanta and moment of silence at Georgia's State Capitol, per the Joint Task Force-National Capital Region.

• An arrival ceremony and service at the Carter Presidential Center follows with Carter lying in repose from 7pm Saturday to 6am Sunday.

President Biden named former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, actor Denzel Washington, billionaire George Soros and Bono, lead singer of the rock band U2, among 19 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Saturday.

Why it matters: The award is the nation's highest civilian honor.

What they're saying: President Biden thanked the awardees at a White House ceremony on Saturday and said they embody the nation's creed "e pluribus unum, out of many one."

• "As cultural icons [...] dignified statesmen, humanitarians, rock stars, sports stars, you feed the hungry," he said.
• "You give hope to those who are hurting, and you craft the signs and sounds of our movements and our memories."

Zoom in: This year's recipients posthumously include activist Fannie Lou Hamer, whose work fighting racial injustice of the Jim Crow era helped pave the way for the 1965 Voting Rights Act.

Other awardees include: Basketball legend Earvin "Magic" Johnson, conservationist Jane Goodall, designer Ralph Lauren, chef José Andrés, actor Michael J. Fox and entrepreneur Tim Gill.

Also on the recipient list, are Vogue editor-in-chief Anna Wintour, soccer player Lionel Messi, Bill Nye of the popular 90s TV show "Bill Nye the Science Guy," writer George Stevens, Jr. and David Rubenstein, co-chairman of The Carlyle Group.

Biden posthumously awarded the honor to the 25th secretary of defense Ashton Baldwin Carter, former attorney general Robert Francis Kennedy and businessman George Romney.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the president's remarks.

A high-impact winter storm is bringing more than a foot of snow, hazardous ice and severe weather Sunday through Tuesday to tens of millions of people, many of whom are unaccustomed to such conditions.

Threat level: In Kansas City, heavy snow fell throughout Sunday, following a skating rink of ice on Saturday. In the South, severe thunderstorms prompted tornado warnings. All of this inclement weather is headed for the Mid-Atlantic region, where D.C. schools closed in anticipation of up to a foot of snow.

• An Arctic outbreak partially tied to the polar vortex encircling the far north was moving into parts of the U.S. on Sunday night. It's set to bring some of the coldest air in years to locations east of the Rocky Mountains during the next two to three weeks.

By the numbers: More than 110 million people, roughly a third of the U.S. population, were under some type of precipitation-related winter storm alert early Monday, according to the National Weather Service. This includes everything from a blizzard to ice storm warnings.

• An estimated 61,000 customers were without power in Kentucky, as were over 47,000 in Indiana and nearly 35,000 in Missouri — mostly due to ice early Monday.
• In Illinois, the state emergency management agency said on X just before midnight that about 36,000 customers were without electricity in the state's south amid "many reports of downed trees and tree branches" after freezing rain and sleet "burdened trees with extra weight."
• More than half the U.S. population is expected to see temperatures drop to 32°F or below during the next seven days — with many seeing far colder temperatures.

The big picture: The storm will help pull more bitterly cold Arctic air southward on its heels, as blustery winds kick in from the northwest. Most of the U.S. will see temperatures dip down to the freezing mark.

• With temperature anomalies of 15°F to 25°F below average for this time of year, the cold will be noteworthy more for its duration than its intensity, however.
• The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) on Sunday issued a Weather Watch from Jan. 6-10 due to forecast cold weather. Texas' grid has been vulnerable to winter and summer weather extremes, though solar power helped keep supply stable during an Arctic blast last year.
• Computer models are hinting that another major storm, perhaps followed by even more intense cold, could occur late in the coming week.
• Since January is typically the coldest time of year, any negative temperature departures from average can result in significant cold.

Where it is snowing and how much will fall

Zoom in: The National Weather Service is warning of "major" winter storm impacts across central and northern Kansas, into Kansas City, where more than a foot of snow and sleet could fall this weekend.

• The NWS issued a rare blizzard warning for central and eastern Kansas and parts of Missouri, including areas near Kansas City, as strong winds and heavy snow reduce visibility to near zero.
• Unusually heavy snow will also accumulate near St. Louis, where "major" storm impacts are likely, according to NOAA's Winter Storm Severity Index.
• For these regions, "This could be the heaviest snowfall in over a decade," the NWS stated via a post on X. The agency warned of "dangerous to impossible driving conditions" along with "considerable disruption to daily life."
• Another area of major winter storm impacts is forecast for the Mid-Atlantic, specifically the Washington metro area, where 6 to 12 inches of snow could fall between Sunday night and early Tuesday morning.

If these amounts verify, it would be the biggest snowstorm in these areas since at least 2022, and could eclipse snow totals from some entire winter seasons in recent years.

Between the lines: Perhaps the most impactful winter storm-related threat is freezing rain.

• To the south of the extensive snow shield, a strip of damaging ice will build up on trees and power lines, potentially knocking out electricity to millions of people from central Kansas to West Virginia Sunday into Monday.
• "Dangerous travel conditions, widespread tree damage, and prolonged power outages are expected along this corridor," the NWS stated in an online discussion.
• Such outages could last many days, particularly because of the lack of experience with such hazards in this region.

The intrigue: After this storm exits into the Atlantic on Tuesday, forecasters will be eyeing both a lobe, or piece, of the polar vortex swirling over Canada, which could be directed southward into the U.S. in about a week, or remain trapped in Canada.

• Also facing scrutiny will be the potential for any other major winter storms given the cold air entrenched across the U.S.

Fun fact: The annual meeting of meteorologists from around the U.S. and abroad takes place next week, and is infamous for prompting its own extreme weather.

Go deeper: In photos: Major winter storm blasts much of the U.S.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

The outgoing Biden administration has pointed to its investments in U.S. manufacturing as signature economic achievements. One big question now is how much of that the new Trump administration will change or scrap.

• As it happens, an 11-month-old paper offers a preview.

Why it matters: The man tapped to be President-elect Trump's top White House economist published a detailed critique of President Biden's industrial policies last February. It offers a sense of the strategies for reindustrializing the U.S. economy sought by those with the president-elect's ear.

• Stephen Miran, Trump's designee to chair the Council of Economic Advisers, argued that industrial policy should focus on supply-side reforms that make it easier for companies to invest in factories, and be driven by demand from the defense industry.
• He is critical of heavy subsidies for electric cars and labor, environmental, and other regulations that, in Miran's view, make the U.S. too inhospitable to manufacturing.

What they're saying: "Bidenomics not only imposes onerous costs on industry in various ways — from incentives for unionization to special environmental restrictions — that raise the cost of production and work against the stated goal of expanding our industrial plant," Miran wrote for the Manhattan Institute, where he is an adjunct fellow.

• "[It] does so while targeting sectors of the economy for which there would be very little demand, absent government support to artificially lower prices," he adds.
• "A more robust form of reindustrialization would instead combine aggressive supply-side reform with demand support from defense-driven procurement," he wrote, "which would produce enormous positive economic spillovers."

Zoom in: Among other specific policies he critiques as counterproductive are EPA rules governing chipmakers, the Davis-Bacon Act (which includes wage requirements for public projects) and Occupational Safety and Health Administration rules on worker safety that he argues go overboard.

Flashback: Biden has made revitalizing U.S. manufacturing central to his domestic agenda — and his political identity.

• His signature legislation — the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and CHIPS and Science Act — were meant to deploy hundreds of billions of dollars to encourage domestic manufacturing.
• But even some allies were critical of a thicket of rules attached to those dollars that may have made it cumbersome for manufacturers to take advantage. For example, chip manufacturers are required to make child care accessible to employees.
• On net, manufacturing employment is not meaningfully higher than it was before the pandemic (12.9 million jobs in December, versus 12.8 million in February 2020).

Reality check: Miran's will be one voice among many seeking to influence Trump on industrial policy, and the CEA job is more advisory than responsible for carrying out programs.

• Much of the policy detail of the Biden-era legislation is carried out by the Commerce Department, Treasury Department, and others.
• Should Trump seek to change or repeal the laws, it will require action from a closely divided Congress in which many Republican states have benefited from the investments.

A new film looks into the growing trend of Native American tribes disenrolling members, which victims call "cultural genocide" but tribes say is necessary to weed out non-Indigenous people from its records.

Why it matters: Around 11,000 tribal members from 80 tribes have been kicked out of Native American nations over the last 15 years amid growth in casinos and intratribal fighting.

Zoom in: "You're No Indian," which is expected to premiere at a film festival this winter, explores how disenrollment is dividing tribes and affecting members across the country.

• The seven-year project by director Ryan Flynn examines how tribal members in California and the Pacific Northwest have used disenrollment to quash dissent and increase casino revenues for fewer members.
• The film shows how disenrolled members become isolated and rarely speak out in hopes of regaining their enrollment while the federal government seldom intervenes.
• Carla Foreman, a disenrolled member of the Redding Rancheria in California, said her father's health declined and he eventually died after their lineage was disenrolled despite DNA evidence.

How it works: Tribal governments can remove members for any reason since they are sovereign nations.

• Not only can they disenroll members, they can kick out deceased members, thereby ending tribal membership for all their descendants. Tribes can also reject documents and DNA tests with no comment.
• Disenrolled members then no longer have access to the federal Indian Health Service, Native American housing, tribal schools or a share of gaming revenues.
• They can no longer vote in tribal elections and can no longer claim they are Native American, in many cases.
• Tribal members who speak out on behalf of removed members can face disenrollment themselves, even if they are the last speakers of their dying tribe's traditional language.

What they're saying: "I think there's a weaponization of fear at play here," Flynn tells Axios.

• Flynn attempted to talk to tribal leaders, many of who refused to speak on camera, while some supporters of disenrollment decried interracial marriage.
• "Very few people who are proponents of disenrollment actually spoke to us because it's hard to justify."

Yes, but: Donna Featherstone of the Picayune Rancheria of Chukchansi Indians in California says in the film that it's not that hard to prove that you're a member of the tribe.

• "You shouldn't have to go...through a huge book to find some thread," Featherstone says in the film.
• "It's not a disenrollment problem. It's an enrollment problem."
• Featherstone supported a faction that, in 2014, attempted a violent seizure of the tribe's casino and documents in a dispute about tribal enrollment.

The intrigue: Flynn was set to premiere "You're No Indian" with two screenings at the Palm Springs International Film Festival this weekend, but the festival abruptly canceled the screenings due to "scheduling errors."

• The festival is in Palm Springs, California, near tribes that have practiced disenrollment. "It feels like censorship," Flynn said.
• The Palm Springs International Film Festival did not respond to an email from Axios.

What we're watching: "You're No Indian" is scheduled to appear on streaming services later this year, Flynn said.

• It's expected to draw opposition from some tribes and bring out disenrolled members who have yet to speak out.

The rate on the 30-year mortgage is hovering close to 7%, a nearly 6-month high, per data from Freddie Mac out Thursday.

Why it matters: Higher rates are putting home buying out of reach for many Americans and simply turning others off from the market.

• Though home sales picked up in the third quarter, even with rising rates, they're still hovering at historic lows.

The big picture: Mortgage rates move in tandem with the rate on 10-year Treasury bonds.

• That's been rising over the past few months, as bond investors fret over whether or not the Fed will continue to cut rates, and what exactly will happen once Trump takes office.

What's next: Most forecasts see mortgage rates declining a smidge in 2025 to around 6 - 6.5% — probably not enough to jolt the moribund real estate market out of its slump.