The rate on the 30-year mortgage is hovering close to 7%, a nearly 6-month high, per data from Freddie Mac out Thursday.
Why it matters: Higher rates are putting home buying out of reach for many Americans and simply turning others off from the market.
Though home sales picked up in the third quarter, even with rising rates, they're still hovering at historic lows.
The big picture: Mortgage rates move in tandem with the rate on 10-year Treasury bonds.
That's been rising over the past few months, as bond investors fret over whether or not the Fed will continue to cut rates, and what exactly will happen once Trump takes office.
What's next: Most forecasts see mortgage rates declining a smidge in 2025 to around 6 - 6.5% — probablynot enough to jolt the moribund real estate market out of its slump.
The State Department has notified Congress "informally" of an $8 billion proposed arms deal with Israel that will include munitions for fighter jets and attack helicopters as well as artillery shells, two sources with direct knowledge tell Axios.
Why it matters: This will likely be the last weapons sale to Israel the Biden administration approves.
It comes amid claims from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters in recent months that Biden had imposed a silent "arms embargo" on Israel.
This is a long-term agreement, according to the sources. Some production and delivery of the munitions can be fulfilled through current U.S. stocks, but the majority will take one or more years to deliver.
Zoom in: The sources said the arms sale — which needs approval from the House and Senate foreign relations committees — includes AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles for fighter jets to defend against airborne threats, including drones.
The sale also includes 155mm artillery shells and Hellfire AGM-114 missiles for attack helicopters.
The proposed deal also includes small diameter bombs, JDAM tail kits that turn "dumb bombs" to precision munitions, 500-lb warheads and bomb fuzes.
What they're saying: One source familiar with the arms sale said the State Department told Congress the deal is aimed at "supporting Israel's long-term security by resupplying stocks of critical munitions and air defense capabilities."
"The President has made clear Israel has a right to defend its citizens, consistent with international law and international humanitarian law, and to deter aggression from Iran and its proxy organizations. We will continue to provide the capabilities necessary for Israel's defense," a U.S. official said.
The House voted mostlyalong party lines Friday to adopt a rules package that protects newly reelected Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from a potential ouster.
Why it matters: The new rules make it so that a vote on removing the speaker can only be brought if at least nine Republicans support what is called a "motion to vacate."
That is a significantly higher bar than in the 118th Congress when any single member in either party could force such a motion.
The tool was used to remove former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in October 2023. Johnson faced an unsuccessful ouster attempt in April.
Zoom in: House Democrats have railed against the change, noting that for the first time in U.S. history the minority party would be restricted from introducing a motion to vacate.
"Instead of electing a Speaker of the House, they have decided to elect a Speaker of the Republican Conference — held hostage by their most extreme members," said House Rules Committee ranking member Jim McGovern (D-Mass.).
Zoom out: The 37-page rules package also formally eliminates the House's Diversity and Inclusion office, a longtime priority of House Republicans.
It renames the House Oversight and Accountability Committee to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee — the name it held before Republicans retook the House under President Biden.
It also renames the Office of Congressional Ethics to the Office of Congressional Conduct, authorizes subpoenas of DOJ officials as part of Republicans' Biden probe and retains the China Select Committee.
And it tees up votes on a dozen bills related to Israel, border security, transgender participation in sports and proof of citizenship for voting.
Between the lines: After the speaker election, in which Johnson faced a 45-minute standoff with a handful of right-wing defectors, the rules package was changed to include two new provisions.
One provision restricts the House from holding what are known as "suspension" votes after Wednesdays. It effectively restricts GOP leadership's ability to pass major legislation with help from Democrats.
The other removes gender-neutral language from the rules — such as changing "child" to "son" and "daughter."
President-elect Trump announced on Friday that he is appointing Morgan Ortagus, who served as State Department spokesperson in his first term, as deputy special presidential envoy for Middle East peace.
The intrigue: The appointment came with a rebuke. Trump noted that Ortagus came highly recommended but had criticized him in the past. "Early on Morgan fought me for three years, but hopefully has learned her lesson," Trump wrote.
Why it matters: Ortagus is a highly experienced national security and foreign policy expert and will be a significant reinforcement to the White House "Peace Team" that will face a turbulent region with an ongoing war in Gaza.
Driving the news: Ortagus will join a team led by Trump's close friend and confidant Steve Witkoff.
During Trump's first term in office, Ortagus served as the State Department spokesperson under then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Before that, Ortagus worked for the Department of the Treasury as a financial intelligence analyst and also served as deputy U.S. treasury attaché to Saudi Arabia.
She is an active U.S. Navy Reserve intelligence officer.
Behind the scenes: Ortagus is close to many senior Republicans like incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz and Trump's envoy for special missions, Ric Grenell.
She also worked closely with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner during Trump's first term in office, and they remain close.
Tension point: During the Republican presidential primary before the 2016 elections, Ortagus criticized Trump's "isolationist" foreign policy and his personal behavior.
After noting that past criticism, Trump added that he decided to appoint Ortagus regardless of their differences because "she has strong Republican support."
"I'm not doing this for me, I'm doing it for them. Let's see what happens," he added.
What to watch: The priority for Trump's "peace team" will be to get a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal if one isn't concluded by Jan. 20.
They will have to work on ending the Gaza war and laying out a "day-after" plan that will include a massive reconstruction effort.
Witkoff and Ortagus are also expected to work on one of Trump's main foreign policy goals — reaching a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Trump said he wants Witkoff and Ortagus to work on bringing "calm and prosperity" to the Middle East. "I expect great results, and soon!" he wrote.
A group of nearly a dozen right-wing House Republicans on Friday released a list of demands they want Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to fulfill in order to keep the speaker's gavel.
Why it matters: It's enough members to force a vote on removing Johnson later on — meaning the newly reelected speaker has to take them seriously.
Johnson got his first taste of rebellion Friday as a trio of holdouts nearly derailed his reelection bid — with two relenting only after a 45-minute standoff.
Now, the right-wing hardliners who voted for him only reluctantly are unveiling a checklist for how he can keep his gavel.
Driving the news: In a letter to their Republican colleagues, 11 members of the House Freedom Caucus board wrote that they voted for Johnson "despite our serious reservations" about his track record.
The letter includes a list of demands for Johnson, urging him to modify the House calendar to have more days in session and ensure that Republicans' reconciliation package cuts the deficit.
It also demands votes on border security, spending cuts, reversing Biden administration environmental policies and election reform.
The letter was led by Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the chair of the right-wing group.
What they're saying: There is always room to negotiate on so-called "leadership" positions under the rules; in the meantime, each one of our election certificates is still equal," the lawmakers wrote.
"Personalities can be debated later, but right now there is zero room for error on the policies the American people demanded when they voted for President Trump ... We demand the House of Representatives deliver — quickly."
The big picture: That's just 10 days before Inauguration Day, thoughJudge JuanMerchan indicated in his written decision that Trump won't face jail time.
Trump was convicted on all 34 felony counts for falsifying company records, making him the first convicted felon to be elected president.
Zoom in: Prosecutors had asked Merchan to place the case on indefinite hold, but the judge said sentencingis "the most viable solution to ensure finality" and to allow Trump to pursue an appeal.
However, Merchan wrote he's not inclined to impose jail time — even though the conviction would allow it — because prosecutors "concede they no longer view [it] as a practicable recommendation" given Trump's reelection.
Zoom out: Merchan also said that the Supreme Court's ruling that presidents have immunity from prosecution for "officials acts" doesn't apply to the president-elect.
"Accordingly, a President-elect is not permitted to avail himself of the protections afforded to the individual occupying that Office," Merchan wrote.
Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.
Why it matters: The donation reflects a long, collaborative relationship between Trump and Cook that included many meetings during Trump's first term, and dinner at Mar-a-Lago last month.
Between the lines: Cook, a proud Alabama native, believes the inauguration is a great American tradition, and is donating to the inauguration in the spirit of unity, the sources said. The company is not expected to give.
Cook, with a consistent presence in Washington, has made it clear over the years that he believes in participation, not sitting on the sidelines, and engaging with policymakers from both sides of the aisle.
Apple, a huge contributor to the U.S. economy, is the largest taxpayer in the U.S. and the world.
The backstory: A front-page story in The Wall Street Journal shortly after the election, headlined "How Tim Cook Cracked the Code on Working With Trump," noted that the Apple CEO spent years building personal rapport with Trump.
Cook "developed a meeting strategy with Trump where he would bring one data point to home in on a single issue in a meeting," The Journal reported. "That approach helped keep the meetings from spiraling in too many directions."
Zoom in: A Trump financial disclosure form released just after he left office reported that Cook once gave the president a $5,999 Mac Pro computer made at an Austin factory the two toured in 2019.
Cook also has met with Trump at Trump Tower and at his club in Bedminster, N.J.
Axios is told Elon Musk joined part of the Mar-a-Lago dinner.
Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) was reelected as the speaker of the House on Friday, securing the gavel on the first ballot.
Why it matters: Johnson appeared imperiled as three Republicans initially voted against him — enough to sink him on the first ballot.
After a roughly 45-minute standoff, Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Keith Self (R-Texas) switched to voting for Johnson, giving him the 218 votes he needed to secure the gavel without a multi-ballot fight.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was the lone defector, voting for Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), while all Democrats voted for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
Zoom in: Just before the vote began Friday, Johnson released a list of promises around spending cuts in an apparent deal to shore up his reelection.
He said he will create a working group of "independent experts" to explore spending reforms and release a report, as well as direct committees to "aggressively" review federal funding.
That was enough to win over roughly a dozen House Republicans who had for weeks refused to commit to voting for him, some of whom waited until the last minute to do so.
Zoom out: The Louisiana Republican, first elevated to the speakership in 2023 after Rep. Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) ouster, has faced growing anger from his right flank throughout his 14-month tenure.
GOP hardliners have raged at him for working across the aisle to pass government spending and foreign aid bills without demanding stringent spending cuts.
But President-elect Trump backed Johnson, urging his allies not to tank the vote and potentially imperil Congress' certification of his election victory on Jan. 6.
Between the lines: Self and Norman spoke to Trump during the 45-minute voting interlude, according to Self and another source familiar with the matter.
They were connected to the incoming president by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who called Trump personally and handed off her phone, the source told Axios.
Self declined to divulge details of the conversation other than saying they "discussed how we can advance the Trump agenda" and that he had a separate, one-on-one talk with Trump as well.
What they're saying: The short-lived rebellion against Johnson was seen by some Republicans as simply a play for attention.
Said one GOP lawmaker shortly before Self and Norman flipped their votes: "They just need five more minutes of fame, it seems like."
"A couple more tweets, a couple more five-dollar donations ... and we'll bring this thing home," the lawmaker said.
What to watch: Some GOP lawmakers worry that the difficulty Johnson faced in securing reelection is a sign of what is to come over the next two years.
"I'm hoping that President Trump will lean in on some of these members ... we don't have time to deal with this intransigence," Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.) told Axios before the vote was gaveled.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.
Local leaders are fielding tough questions over whether the New Orleans attack on New Year's Day that killed 14 people and injured another 35 could have been prevented.
The latest: Bright yellow vehicle-resistant blockades have been newly installed on sidewalks on and surrounding Bourbon Street. NBC reports the city has had them since 2017.
In a now-viral video clip, NOPD chief Anne Kirkpatrick acknowledges that the blockades, called archers, were in storage in New Orleans, and she didn't know about them previously.
As multiple media outlets ask similar questions, the New York Times published an article headlined "Could Better Security Have Stopped the New Orleans Terror Attack?" on Thursday. It details what it calls "a confidential security report" from 2019 that outlined how Bourbon Street was vulnerable to a vehicle attack like the one that took place this week.
Catch up quick: A man whom the FBI identified as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old U.S. Army veteran and a U.S. citizen from Texas, made a sudden right turn onto Bourbon Street at about 3:15am local time.
Jabbar drove his truck onto the sidewalk, bypassing an NOPD SUV that was parked in front of a broken barricade. He drove through crowds of New Years revelers for about two blocks before crashing into construction equipment.
When Jabbar exited the truck, he began shooting, and three NOPD officers returned fire, officials have said. Two officers were among the injured. Jabbar was pronounced dead at the scene.
Context: Barricades are typically in place during busy nights at the corner of Bourbon and Canal Streets, preventing drivers from heading down Bourbon Street.
Vehicle-resistant bollards were installed at the intersection about a decade ago, but have been out of commission pretty much ever since, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell said this week, citing damage from debris like Mardi Gras beads. They've been under construction as the city prepares to host the NFL's Super Bowl in February.
Officials do not block Canal, one of the city's most-trafficked thoroughfares.
"We did indeed have a plan but the terrorist defeated it," NOPD chief Anne Kirkpatrick said Wednesday.
What they're saying: City and state officials this week have put up a united front against harsh questions about what could have been done to prevent the attack.
"This type of event can happen in any city, and that's the tragedy of it," Gov. Jeff Landry said Thursday.
In a contentious conversation with Britain's Sky News, Kirkpatrick bit back at a reporter who said the city's plan "allowed an attacker to drive into a crowd."
"I take exception to that," she replied. "But if you were experienced with terrorism, you would not be asking that question."
Reality check: "Security experts acknowledged that it was impossible to protect every sidewalk and street party in America against a determined vehicle attack," the New York Times reported.
Plus, experts say vehicle attacks are becoming more common because they're incredibly simple and extremely difficult to prevent, Axios' Avery Lotz reports.
Flashback: This is not the first time New Orleans officials have faced questions over actions surrounding city safety.
At the onset of the pandemic 2020, Cantrell faced questions from national media over the wisdom of hosting a typical Mardi Gras celebration at the time. It was eventually understood to have been a superspreader event.
At the time, Cantrell batted away the criticism, noting that Mardi Gras that year, recognized that year on Feb. 25, was still weeks before most of the country mandated social distancing.
What we're watching: New Orleans' Carnival celebrations kick off next week, and then the city hosts Super Bowl LIX before the celebrations culminate with Mardi Gras on March 4.
Landry said Wednesday that officials recognize "we have a problem" with security, and "we're going to fix it."
What's next: New Orleans City Council is holding a joint public works and criminal justice committee meeting Monday to address additional security measures in light of the attack.
A majority of Republicans now feel confident the 2024 election results were tabulated accurately, according to an AP-NORC poll released Friday.
Why it matters: President-elect Trump for years had repeatedly and falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen from him, but those concerns disappeared after he scored his first popular vote win.
The big picture: A majority of Americans (57%) expressed a "great deal or quite a bit" of confidence in the accuracy of the election results at the national level.
This figure was slightly higher among Republicans (64%) and Democrats (60%), but only 34% of independents shared that confidence.
Republicans' confidence in the election's accuracy was high not just at the national level but also in the state (66%) and local races (71%).
State of play: The results are miles away from where the GOP stood at the start of President Biden's term, when, weeks after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, more than 6 in 10 Republicans believed Biden wasn't legitimately elected.
Low confidence in the integrity of the electoral system followed the party ever since. A Dec. 2023 pollfound that roughly a third of Republicans even doubted the outcome of their own party's primary contest.
Ahead of the 2024 election, another AP-NORC poll found that only 24% of Republicans expressed a "great deal" of confidence in the impending national vote count compared to 71% of Democrats.
Methodology: This AP-NORC poll surveyed 1,251 adults between Dec. 5-9, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago.
The margin of sampling error for adults overall is ±3.7 percentage points.
President Biden will visit New Orleans on Monday to "grieve with the families and communities" touched by the Bourbon Street terrorist attack, the White House announced Friday morning.
Why it matters: The ISIS-inspired attack killed 14 people and injured dozens more.
The big picture: First Lady Jill Biden will accompany the president, the White House said.
The statement didn't give details about where the Bidens will go or with whom they will meet.
Zoom in: Monday is also Twelfth Night, which is the official start of the Mardi Gras season in New Orleans.
Coal use reached another all-time high last year, defying an earlier prediction of decline. But IEA sees only small growth — largely a plateau — through 2027.
The mammoth scale of AI-driven data center power needs is really coming into focus.
A new Energy Department report sees data centers accounting for up to 12% of U.S. power demand in 2028.
The growth is likely to boost gas in the near- to medium-term.
President-elect Donald Trump isvowing to nix Biden administration climate policies and plans to exit the Paris Agreement.
Other national targets could face peril as deadlines loom and elections unfold in Canada and elsewhere.
Big banks are recalibrating, too. In recent days and weeks, a number of Wall Street giants like Morgan Stanley and CitiGroup left the UN-affiliated Net-Zero Banking Alliance.
Banks, however, say they remain committed to their climate goals.
Big Oil has slowed its roll. European giants Shell and BP have gotten more selective about renewables, even as they maintain 2050 net-zero targets.
Shell has softened some climate goals, and watch BP's February strategy update after Reuters reported it will scrap 2030 oil and gas production-cutting aims.
What's next: S&P Global Commodity Insights sees overall 2025 global energy demand growth once again outstripping additions of clean sources.
"While the supply of clean energy is growing faster than it ever has in history...it is not yet fast enough to curtail the growth in fossil fuel demand, let alone displace existing fossil fuel consumption," their recent 2025 outlook states.
Aside from the pandemic and other big recessions, clean supply — renewables and nuclear — has never had a year that outpaced rising consumption.
The intrigue: Veteran analyst Arjun Murti, in a recent post, argued the "energy transition era" ended in 2024.
It began 2019 with the rise of net-zero commitments and Wall Street focusing heavily on the "E" in ESG, he said.
Now, he said, things are moving toward a "healthier" conversation centered on everyone deserving the energy abundance of the select few in Western nations.
The bottom line: National and corporate targets are "really hard to achieve in the real world," said Daniel Raimi of the nonpartisan think tank Resources For the Future.
Still, Some nations are making progress (albeit not hitting their goals). "They are demonstrating that energy transition is possible. It just hasn't happened at a global scale yet," he said.
If Donald Trump succeeds in significantly reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China, he'll do so against the force of history — and of market expectations.
Why it matters: By placing the trade deficit with China at the top of the list of things he wants to slash, Trump is facing off against trillions of dollars' worth of deeply entrenched global trade patterns.
By the numbers: The trade deficit with China — our imports minus our exports — has been larger than $200 billion since 2005. It reached a record high of $418 billion in 2018, Trump's second year in office.
The big picture: The U.S. imports an astonishing array of goods from China, and it exports very little in the other direction.
The tariffs imposed on China during the first Trump administration, which were then kept in place by President Biden, did relatively little to change that dynamic.
During Trump's first term, when imports fell, exports fell too, blunting the effect on the trade deficit.
That pattern would likely be repeated if he follows through on his pledge to impose a 60% tariff on goods from China: Our exports would end up being similarly taxed in retaliation.
The bottom line: For the time being, the market seems to be reasonably sanguine when it comes to the threat of a trade war.
Maybe that's because no such thing has happened in the lifetimes of today's traders, and maybe it's because the sheer force of money flowing between China and the U.S. seems impossible to significantly disrupt, whatever Trump might dream.
President Biden on Friday is expected to block Japan's Nippon Steel from acquiring U.S. Steel, citing national security concerns, the White House announced Friday.
Why it matters: U.S. Steel's shares were down as much as 9% in pre-market trading Friday on the news. The company has warned that a deal failure would cause it to close some operations in Pennsylvania, where it employs around 4,000 people.
What he's saying: "Without domestic steel production and domestic steel workers, our nation is less strong and less secure," Biden said in a statement Friday.
"Today's action reflects my unflinching commitment to utilize all authorities available to me as President to defend U.S. national security, including by ensuring that American companies continue to play a central role in sectors that are critical for our national security."
Zoom in: Most threatened if the company does downsize is believed to be Mon Valley Works, which has more than 3,000 workers.
U.S. Steel also said it might relocate its Pittsburgh headquarters.
Nippon had pledged to invest $2.7 billion into U.S. Steel facilities, including Mon Valley Works.
Catch up quick: U.S. Steel agreed to be acquired by Nippon in Dec. 2023 for $14.9 billion.
It picked the Japanese company over top U.S. steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs, thinking that a national security review would be less problematic than an antitrust review.
But the agreement ran into political opposition from both sides of the aisle. Both Biden and then-candidate Trump pledged to block the deal, even though Japan is a strong U.S. ally.
The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., the U.S. government body better known as CFIUS that investigates foreign acquisitions, couldn't reach a consensus and referred the deal to Biden for him to make the call.
What's next: Nippon and U.S. Steel now must decide whether to sue or move on.
Threat level: The storm is set to deliver upwards of a foot of snow in parts of the Plains, Midwest and Appalachians, with somewhat lower amounts for Washington, D.C., Baltimore and potentially Philadelphia as well.
Multiple states are forecast to see a thick layer of ice build up that could lead to widespread, enduring power outages. The ice zone will stretch from parts of Nebraska eastward to Kentucky and West Virginia.
"Treacherous travel conditions are expected with power outages likely in areas that receive over a quarter-inch of ice accumulation," the National Weather Service said via X on Thursday evening.
By the numbers: As the storm exits late this weekend into early next week, Arctic air will be drawn southward out of Canada, sending temperatures plunging below 0°F, across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Temperatures may drop below freezing as far south as the Gulf Coast next week.
During the next seven days — week one of an enduring cold snap that could stretch through Inauguration Day — 234 million people in at least 40 states could see temperatures at or below 32°F, according to WeatherBell Analytics.
Some cities, including Washington, may not see high temperatures rise much above the mid-30s for several days in a row.
For most, the cold will be noteworthy for its duration rather than its severity, as computer models have backed off from earlier projections of historically low temperatures.
For many U.S. residents, this event will bring the coldest air in several years, following a few unusually mild winters.
Context: This Arctic outbreak is tied in part to a stretching of the polar vortex, which is an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere, and the air circulation around it, that forms each winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Other weather features, such as a strong high pressure area off the West Coast and Alaska, and another so-called "Blocking High" over Greenland, have opened the Arctic's refrigerator door.
The number of prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs jumped roughly 10% in 2024, according to insurance claims data provided to Axios by health analytics company PurpleLab.
Why it matters: The data, which shows double-digit growth in 23 states, offers a snapshot of the sustained growth in demand across the U.S. for the drugs hailed as game-changers in the fight against obesity.
By the numbers: Rhode Island (67.8%), Massachusetts (48%) and New Jersey (35.8%) saw the largest year-over-year growth in prescriptions dispensed between 2023 and 2024.
There were declines in six states including Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Idaho, South Dakota and Vermont.
Between the lines: The most prescriptions went to adults ages 55 to 65 (29%), followed by seniors 65 and older (26%).
The vast majority of prescriptions went to commercially insured patients while only 9% were written for Medicaid patients. 17% went to patients on Medicare.
The data is based on roughly 7.5 billion claims from private insurers, as well as Medicare — which only covers GLP-1s to treat diabetes — and Medicaid.
The data captures prescriptions for Novo Nordisk's diabetes drug Ozempic, which has been widely prescribed off-label for weight loss, and Wegovy, which was approved for weight loss in 2021.
It also includes Eli Lilly's diabetes medication Mounjaro and its anti-obesity medication, Zepbound, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in November.
The data lumps the prescriptions together, so it's not possible to tease out how often these drugs are being prescribed for obesity versus diabetes or heart disease.
Elon Musk hijacked British politics this week with a stream of at least 60 X posts since Tuesday attacking Prime Minister Keir Starmer, defending an anti-Islam campaigner and endorsing the far-right Reform Party.
Why it matters: The right-hand man to America's next president has gone after the leaders of several of its closest allies in recent months. But his fight with the British government is turning into the nastiest yet.
While Musk's X microphone was enough to send Westminster into a frenzy, there's been intense speculation he'll also open his checkbook for Reform and its Trump-aligned leader, Nigel Farage.
Musk told Axios' Mike Allen he had yet to donate and wasn't sure whether that would be legal. "But I have voiced my opinion that the status quo parties are not the right move," Musk added.
That's an understatement.
In the most recent of several attacks on Starmer, Musk labeled him "Keir Starmtrooper," and shared a meme claiming the PM was more concerned about policing social media posts than rape.
That was part of a barrage of tweets attacking British political and legal establishment for failing to adequately investigate alleged child sex abuse rings — most infamously one in the town of Rochdale, in which dozens of young girls were raped between 2004 to 2013.
Some on the right have argued the abuse was swept under the rug because the perpetrators were predominantly of Pakistani origin.
What he's saying: Musk claimed another Labour minister, Jess Phillips, belonged "in prison" for rejecting the idea of a national probe of historic child sexual abuse. She argued it should be handled at the local level.
Seizing on Musk's momentum, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said Thursday that a national investigation was "long overdue." Her own party was in power from 2010 until Starmer's landslide victory in July.
Musk tweeted that the election should be re-run, and that "only Reform can save Britain."
Zoom in: Musk also called for the release of anti-Islam activist Tommy Robinson, a figure so controversial in Britain that even Farage has distanced himself from him.
Robinson, best known for organizing anti-immigration demonstrations, was jailed for 18 months in October for contempt of court, for breaching a court order by repeating defamatory claims about a teenage Syrian refugee.
Musk shared more than a dozen tweets praising Robinson.
Flashback: Robinson was accused of helping spark far-right riots over the summer by falsely suggesting the perpetrator of a stabbing attack was Muslim and encouraging his followers to "hit the streets."
After the riots, Musk tweeted: "Civil war is inevitable."
Zoom out: Musk also kicked up a furor in Germany last week by endorsing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of snap elections next month.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz rebuked him in a New Year's address, saying the election must be decided by Germany's citizens, not "owners of social media channels."
Musk also labeled Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau an "insufferable tool." On Thursday, he shared a "great interview" with Trudeau's conservative rival, Pierre Poilievre.
What to watch: Farage told The Telegraph of London, after he and Musk met last month, that he expected the world's richest man to donate "a reasonable amount" to his party.
As a foreigner, Musk can't donate directly — though he could through a U.K. business, such as the British arm of X. The U.K.'s elections watchdog is now calling on the government to cap donations, with Musk in mind.
Musk told Axios he's unsure of the legality of any potential donations.
The deadly New Year's attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas have officials in Washington, D.C., on high alert about potential security threats ahead of President-elect Trump's inauguration.
Why it matters: Concerns about a possible wave of nationwide violence come as extraordinary security precautions are already being put in place for both the inauguration and Congress' certification of the 2024 election.
One senior House Democrat told Axios that this week's attacks have rattled many lawmakers.
A House Republican said they are "very concerned about security" because "we saw real terrorism this week," noting that a Trump property apparently was targeted in the Las Vegas attack.
Even before the attacks, some House Democrats said they planned to skip the inauguration out of fear for their safety.
Driving the news: In New Orleans, a man identified as 42-year-old U.S. Army veteran Shamsud-Din-Jabbar allegedly drove his pickup truck onto a sidewalk on crowded Bourbon Street, killing at least 14 people and injuring dozens.
And in Las Vegas, a Tesla Cybertruck containing fireworks and fuel exploded outside Trump's Las Vegas hotel, killing the driver and injuring seven others.
What they're saying: D.C.'s Metropolitan Police Department said Wednesday that it has "heightened its security posture" in response to the attacks.
"As we approach upcoming major events in the District of Columbia, MPD will continue working with our local and federal partners to assess potential threats and make any necessary adjustments," the department said in a statement.
D.C.'s Metro Transit Police also said they've "heightened security," including an "increased police presence" on public transit.
Zoom in: For the first time, the Department of Homeland Security has designated Congress' certification of presidential electors on Jan. 6 as a National Special Security Event — the same level of protection as inaugurations and the Super Bowl.
It will be the first time since the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, that Congress meets to certify a presidential election — though, unlike in 2021, there are no serious efforts to try to overturn the election results.
U.S. Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger told WTOP last month that security for Jan. 6 will be "night and day" from what it was four years ago.
Fences have already been erected around the Capitol warning would-be trespassers about federal law that prohibits entering restricted grounds.
Both D.C. law enforcement agencies said Thursday there are "no known threats" to events in the city. U.S. Capitol Police said they have "already been ramping up security, as planned, ahead of a busy month."
A senior House member with knowledge of the security preparations told Axios that the Capitol is "well fortified" and that "frankly, given all the steps we've taken ... we're about as secure as we've ever been."
Even so, the lawmaker added that "we're obviously monitoring all of this. The violence everywhere is beyond troubling. ... There are ongoing concerns."
Zoom out: The New Year's attacks come amid a period of growing political violence, including a steady years-long rise in threats targeting members of Congress.
With the wide release of Sora, OpenAI's video tool, most of the big tech giants — and some startups — are now racing to create models capable of generating realistic, high-quality videos from text prompts.
Why it matters: GenAI video tools could save time and money for filmmakers, but they could also unleash novel copyright issues and a flood of deepfakes.
The fiercer the competition in the AI space, the more likely tech companies are to prioritize release dates over safety.
Generating AI video requires magnitudes more energy than generating text, which is already straining the power grid.
The big picture: Google, OpenAI and AI startup Runway all offer products that let creators generate short videos with minimal effort.
Google's Veo 2
Google announced Veo 2, the latest version of its genAI video tool, a week after Sora's wider release in December. The company says Veo 2 is now available to early access users in the U.S. who are over 18.
But good luck testing it yourself.
"No one seems to have any idea how to actually try it out," tech writer and investor MG Siegler wrote in his blog. "I worked [at Google] for over a decade and I can't begin to tell you how you access it."
Google hasn't released pricing details.
Between the lines: Google says Veo lets you create clips up to two minutes long, which means it could generate very short films.
An entire section of Veo 2's product page is devoted to the tool's limitations, explaining that it struggles with consistency and complex motion.
Ex-Googler Bilawal Sidhu had early access and showed off a video of a dog wearing sunglasses and headphones and drinking a cocktail. Only the color of the umbrella in the cocktail glass changed in different shots.
Sidhu also posted Veo 2 videos including uncanny human-like expressions with the prompt "An Indian uncle's reaction after you tell him you switched majors from mechanical engineering to sociology at a Christmas party."
While there's no agreed-upon benchmarking system for AI video generators, Google's Veo 2 is widely seen as the most promising right now.
GenAI video creator Blaine Brown praised Veo by showing off videos of how different tools handled the prompt "a pair of hands skillfully slicing a perfectly cooked steak on a wooden cutting board. Faint steam rising from it."
The test, Brown wrote on X, challenges AI models with physics and movement, an interpretation of what it means when a steak is cooked perfectly and depicting hands — a notorious struggle for AI.
Yes, but: There's a waiting list for Veo 2, while other models are available right now.
OpenAI's Sora
OpenAI released the beta version of Sora to a select group of testers in February 2024, then released the product to all ChatGPT Plus and Pro subscribers in December.
OpenAI limits its $20/month Plus subscribers to 50 videos at 480p resolution or fewer videos at 720 per month.
$200/month Pro subscribers are promised "10x more usage, higher resolutions, and longer durations."
On December 21, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted on X that all ChatGPT Plus users had unlimited access to Sora "over the holidays."
Between the lines: Sora is bundled with ChatGPT Plus and Pro, so your $20 or $200/month subscription comes with all the text, coding and image-generating capabilities of ChatGPT Plus and Pro.
Aimed at users who want to create 20-second videos, Sora is ideal for social media and marketing.
Creating a video with Sora is as simple as entering a description in the prompt box and waiting for it to generate.
Fun fact: YouTuber Marques Brownlee's early review of Sora pointed out new and potentially problematic copyright issues with the tool.
Brownlee asked Sora to create a video of a "tech reviewer sitting at a desk." The generated video featured a fake plant on the desk that is nearly identical to the plant Brownlee keeps on his desk for many of his tech reviews, suggesting that the tool has been trained on his videos.
Runway Gen-3 Alpha
AI startup Runway's most current model — Gen-3 Alpha — has been available on all of its paid plans since September.
Subscriptions range from $144-$1,500 per year depending on how many seconds of video you want to generate.
Between the lines: Runway was first out of the gate with the public release of its tool in 2023, but this doesn't always mean success. Think Betamax, Netscape, MySpace.
Runway's longer tenure has given it more time to work with creators to prevent copyright infringement.
The company inked a deal with Getty Images in December 2023 to offer a more "commercially safe" version of its tool, and partnered with Lionsgate Studios in September 2024 to train Runway's AI model on Lionsgate's movie catalogue.
In December 2024 Runway launched a talent network for independent AI creators to show off their work to studios and production companies.
What we're watching: The race is still anyone's to win, including American giants like Adobe and Meta, Chinese tech companies like Tencent (Hunyuan Video) and Kuaishou (Kling AI) and a collection of other scrappy startups.
House Republicans' mainstream wing is warning Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) not to repeat his predecessor's mistake of giving away the store to his right-wing detractors to retain his gavel, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Johnson is facing roughly a dozen right-wing holdouts on the eve of Friday's speaker election — in which he will only be able to afford a handful of GOP defections.
Johnson said in a "Fox and Friends" interview Thursday that he has spoken with "every single one" of his detractors and that "we'll be talking about process reforms in the House."
GOP sources have told Axios that Johnson is willing to make commitments but not formal concessions like rules changes.
What we're hearing: There have been "scores" of "regular" House Republicans warning Johnson even against handshake deals that may put the rest of his conference in a bind, four House Republicans familiar with the outreach told Axios.
"There are significant communications," said one of the lawmakers, who told Axios that these GOP moderates are warning Johnson: "Don't do what [former speaker Kevin] McCarthy did."
"Don't give promises upon which you can't deliver. Don't give promises that require us to do things that we don't want to do, that are beyond reasonable," the lawmaker said.
Another told Axios: "You cannot trust these guys who undermine us at every point. They ask for first base, the speaker gives it to them, and they ask for second base. ... Don't cater to [them]."
Zoom out: In his 15-ballot fight to become speaker in 2023, McCarthy (R-Calif.) cut a deal with his right-wing rebels — including rules changes, plum committee assignments and votes on certain bills — that came back to haunt him.
The leverage the deal gave hardliners also forced the GOP's moderate wing to take difficult votes on the debt ceiling, government spending, social policy and more.
Zoom in: One idea establishment House Republicans find particularly distasteful is making Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) the chair of the House Rules Committee.
That is a "very unpopular initiative for many Republicans," the first House Republican told Axios.
Between the lines: These Republicans are confident they won't see a repeat of the much-maligned McCarthy deal.
"We all trust Johnson won't go that far," said the first House Republican, calling him a "good conservative man whose ideology used to be like Freedom Caucus ... adjacent — now he understands he's got a house to run."
Johnson "is trusted to do what's needed without going too far," said a third. "If he has to give the sleeves off his vest, most are fine with that."
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.
