Israeli and U.S. officials involved in the negotiations for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal tell Axios they are concerned that the odds of an agreement before President Trump takes office are slim.

Why it matters: Trump threatened that there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas did not release the hostages held in Gaza by Jan. 20. President Biden also made mediating a deal a top priority for his final months in office.

Between the lines: It isn't clear what Trump meant by "hell to pay." A source close to the president-elect said there is no plan for what to do if Trump's deadline is crossed.

• Some Israeli officials think that if a deal isn't struck, the incoming president could support Israeli measures that the Biden administration opposed, like limiting humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.
• U.S. and Israeli officials say Hamas' top military leader in Gaza — Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar — doesn't seem to be deterred by Trump's threat.
• However one U.S. source with direct knowledge of the talks said there is still a likelihood of a deal in the next three weeks.

Threat level: U.S. and Israeli officials say that if negotiations don't bear fruit by Jan. 20, the transition to Trump would likely push talks back, possibly by several months. That could cost the lives of more hostages.

• 100 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.

Driving the news: Israeli negotiators returned from Doha earlier this week after eight days of talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt didn't lead to a breakthrough.

• CIA director Bill Burns and White House Middle East adviser Brett McGurk, who were also in Doha for several days last week, returned to Washington skeptical about the chances of reaching a deal before Jan. 20.
• On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas traded accusations about who bears responsibility for the lack of progress.
• Hamas claimed that while it negotiated seriously, Israel presented unacceptable new demands.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contended Hamas was lying and was in fact "reneging on understandings that have already been reached."

State of play: Israeli officials with direct knowledge of the talks said both sides are right.

• While some progress was made in Doha last week, fundamental issues are unresolved, such as whether any deal would involve an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
• One Israeli official said the negotiations did not explode but are stuck, with both parties wanting to break the logjam but unwilling to make major concessions.

Behind the scenes: Netanyahu argued in meetings on Wednesday after the Israeli delegation returned from Doha that it is not clear with whom Israel is negotiating — Sinwar in Gaza, or the more pragmatic political representatives in Doha.

• "We don't know who really calls the shots," Netanyahu said, according to a person who attended one of those meetings.
• That source said Netanyahu emphasized that Sinwar refuses to provide the names of the hostages who are still alive and could be released in the first phase of the deal. That phase would cover women, men over 50, and others who are in bad medical condition.
• "I am not willing to enter into a deal without knowing what the deal is about and what I am getting," Netanyahu said, according to the source.

The other side: A Hamas official quoted by the Qatari website al-Araby al-Jadeed said Hamas is willing to provide a list of hostages but has struggled to contact all the different factions in Gaza who are holding them.

• The Hamas official stressed that would become easier once a ceasefire was in place, and denied any gaps exist between Hamas' military and political wings.

What's next: An Israeli official said that Netanyahu will consult with his negotiating team over the next few days about the path forward.

The original Popeye and Tintin characters will enter the public domain when their copyright expires next week, along with thousands of other comics, books, songs and films.

Why it matters: Any creator will have the legal right to use the iconic characters in new works as they see fit from New Year's Day, as long as it's the 95-year-old comic-strip versions. Filmmakers are already working on three Popeye horror movies.

The big picture: In addition to copyrighted works from 1929 entering the U.S. public domain, Jennifer Jenkins, director of Duke's Center for the Study of the Public Domain, writes that intellectual property protection will also expire on sound recordings from 1924 on Jan. 1, 2025.

• That applies to "The Karnival Kid," in which Mickey Mouse speaks for the first time. Copyrights on the original versions of Mickey and Minnie Mouse in the silent film "Steamboat Willie" expired this year.
• Mickey debuts his familiar white gloves and speaks his first words in "The Karnival Kid," "Hot dogs! Hot dogs!" Jenkins notes in her online post.

What else we're watching: The Marx Brothers' first feature film will enter the public domain as will Alfred Hitchcock's first sound movie, "Blackmail."

• In song, the copyrights will lift on George Gershwin's "An American in Paris" and Arthur Freed's "Singin' in the Rain."
• Books to enter the public domain will include Ernest Hemingway's "A Farewell to Arms" and Virginia Woolf's "A Room of One's Own."

Fun fact: The character Buck Rogers "first appeared in 1929 and is public domain in 2025, but technically the futuristic space hero has already been copyright-free for decades, despite claims that he was still copyrighted," Jenkins writes.

• "This is because the copyright registration for the Buck Rogers comic strip was not renewed, so that its copyright expired after 28 years. Also, the original version of the character was actually introduced in a novella as 'Anthony Rogers' in 1928; that character has long been public domain as well."

Go deeper: Mickey and Minnie Mouse lose copyright protection

The list of food recalls is growing as the end of the year approaches.

Why it matters: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates nearly 48 million people a year are sickened by foodborne diseases, an average of 91 people every minute. `

Driving the news: The FDA recently reclassified its recall of some Costco eggs (due to possible salmonella exposure) to the agency's highest risk level.

• The FDA announced at the end of November that New York-Handsome Brook Farms had voluntarily recalled its 24-count organic, pasture-raised eggs.
• In a notice issued Friday, the FDA reclassified the recall to Class I, which is described as the "reasonable probability that the use of, or exposure to, a violative product will cause serious adverse health consequences or death."

The big picture: The rise in recalls can partially be attributed to an increase in consumer demand for ready-to-eat foods and prepackaged meals.

• "We're also dealing with a scenario where we're having increased globalization of food production, which not only creates more opportunities for contamination at multiple points in the supply chain, but it creates more scenarios where there's blind spots," Darin Detwiler, a Northeastern University professor and food safety advocate, told Axios earlier this month.

Zoom in: December FDA food recalls number nearly two dozen as of Dec. 26:

• Jose Madrid Chipotle Con Queso Salsa. Recalled for undeclared Yellow 5 and Yellow 6.
• Taste of Deutschland Frozen Buttered Vegetables, Carrots, Peas, Cauliflower, & Corn. Recalled for undeclared milk.
• Orgain 30g Plant Protein Complete Protein Powder, Chocolate. Recalled because the product may contain undeclared peanuts.
• Lay's Potato Chip. Recalled for potential or undeclared allergen — milk.
• Cal Yee's, Cal Yee Farm, Boa Vista Orchards nut and snack products. Recalled for Potential or Undeclared Allergen — almond, milk, soy, wheat, sesame, and FD&C #6.
• Connie's Thin Crust Cheese Frozen Pizza, 20.36oz. Recalled for potential metal or chemical contaminant.
• VidaSlim Brand 90-day, 30-day and 7-day Original Root, Root Plus, and Root Capsules & VidaSlim Hot Body Brew Dietary Supplements. Recalled for toxic yellow oleander.
• Daily Veggies Enoki Mushrooms. Recalled for potential listeria monocytogenes contamination.
• MadeGood Granola bars. Recalled for potential metal contaminant.
• Borsari Bloody Mary Mix. Recalled for potential or undeclared allergen — soy, fish.
• Dairyland Produce, LLC, whole cucumbers. Recalled for potential salmonella contamination.
• F&S Fresh Foods Mediterranean Inspired Party Tray. Recalled for potential salmonella contamination.
• Fresh Creative Foods, The Beef & Lamb Gyro Sandwich Express Meal Kits. Recalled for potential salmonella contamination.
• Supreme Produce, multiple items with cucumbers. Recalled for potential illness/salmonella contamination.
• Atkinson's Hushpuppies with Onions, Hushpuppies. Recalled due to potential or undeclared allergen — milk.
• Yummi Sushi, multiple sushi products with cucumber. Recalled for potential illness/salmonella contamination.
• Snowfruit, Snowfox, multiple products with cucumbers. Recalled for potential illness/salmonella contamination.
• Marketside cut, cucumber slices. Recalled for potential illness/salmonella contamination.
• Multiple brand names Vegetable Medleys and Whole Organic Carrots. Recalled because of potential foodborne illness — Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (E. coli) O121:H19.
• PAM PAK Whole Fresh American Cucumbers. Recalled because of potential foodborne illness — salmonella.
• Baker Farms Curly Mustard Greens. Recalled because of potential foodborne illness — Listeria monocytogens.
• Crazy Fresh and more, cucumbers and salads with kit. Recalled for potential illness/salmonella contamination.

A full list of recent recalls can be found on the FDA website.

Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino on Thursday vehemently denied President-elect Trump's claims of Chinese interference in the Panama Canal.

Why it matters: Trump has accused Panamanian authorities of charging "exorbitant" shipping rates and cited the increasing dominance of China's government in trade throughout the Americas as a reason to take control of the Panama Canal, one of the world's most crucial pieces of infrastructure that the U.S. ceded in 1999.

Driving the news: The president-elect doubled down in a Christmas Day message, writing on Truth Social: "Merry Christmas to all, including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal."

What they're saying: "There is absolutely not any interference" from China or any other nation in the operation of the canal, Mulino said during a Thursday briefing, emphasizing that Panama is open for business equally to all interested parties.

• "If they're Chinese, if they're Costa Rican, if they're American, all are welcome who want to invest in the country. There is no discrimination here in foreign investment," he said.
• "There are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for the love of God," added an animated Mulino, addressing Trump's post directly. "It's nonsense. There is not a single Chinese soldier in the canal."
• Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Between the lines: China's government has in recent years heavily invested in operations in the Canal Zone, raising concerns about its neutrality.

• It's the primary source of products going through the Colón Free Trade Zone, a free port in Panama dedicated to re-exporting a variety of merchandise to Latin America and the Caribbean, noted the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2021.
• Beijing's "increasing presence in and around the Canal has made the waterway a flashpoint for U.S.-China competition over spheres of influence," added the CSIS in the report.

Go deeper: Trump demands return of Panama Canal if rates aren't cut

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more context.

NFL's Christmas Day double-header games were the most-streamed NFL games in U.S. history, according to preliminary Nielsen figures that don't include international viewership.

Why it matters: Once international figures and additional U.S. data is calculated, the league expects both games will have averaged around 30 million viewers each, a source told Axios, representing a massive win for Netflix's live sports ambitions.

• The massive viewership numbers show the platform's potential for attracting big eyeballs to major sporting events, especially abroad.

Context: Last year's Christmas Day match on traditional television between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders drew 29 million viewers, the second-highest Christmas Day game since 1989.

By the numbers: The first Christmas Day game between the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers, had an average minute audience of 24.1 million, per Nielsen figures provided by the NFL.

• Nearly one-third of Netflix's global concurrent viewers on Christmas Day were watching the game at one point, a spokesperson said Wednesday, making it the most-watched concurrent stream of any Christmas Day for Netflix in the past four years.
• The second Christmas Day game between the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens had an average minute audience of 24.3 million.
• It was the most-watched Christmas Day game on record among 18-34 year-olds, per the NFL, with 5.1 million U.S. viewers. (That figure is based on Nielsen records dating back to 2001).
• U.S. viewership for Ravens-Texans game peaked at Beyonce's halftime performance, with over 27 million viewers tuning in.

Zoom out: In total, the NFL's Christmas Day broadcasts on Netflix, including its pre-game shows and Beyonce's performance, were viewed by at least 65 million people, representing a remarkable day of total viewership for the NFL.

• A Netflix spokesperson said the Chiefs-Steelers game drew viewers from roughly all of the 190 countries in which Netflix is available at some point during the broadcast.
• For the NFL, which has major international expansion ambitions, Netflix's global audience reach is a huge selling point when considering future streaming rights.

Zoom in: Netflix spared no cost trying to nail its broadcast.

• The company reportedly invested around $150 million on the broadcast, and cut a big pay check for Beyonce to perform at halftime.

The big picture: Sports are becoming a bigger part of Netflix's live programming ambitions.

• The company started experimenting with live programming in 2023, when it aired the "Love is Blind" Season 4 reunion special in real-time.
• It's since experimented with a few live comedy specials.
• Wednesday's Christmas Day game was the second-most popular live title on Netflix to date, the company said.

Yes, but: Netflix, like most major streamers, will have to work on its technical infrastructure to ensure it has the bandwidth to support major live sporting events without any glitches.

• The "Love is Blind" Season 4 reunion special was delayed and canceled due to technical issues on the day it was supposed to air.
• The company's Nov. 15 live fight between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson was marred by buffering and freezing issues for some users.
• While the streamer worked with third-party broadcast and production groups on the event, the game still included minor glitches, which is common for new streamers airing popular live sporting events for the first time.

What we're watching: Netflix's successful first live NFL game will serve as an example to other sports leagues that the streamer, which previously said it had no intention of getting into live sports, can attract a big audience.

• Next year, Netflix will become the exclusive streaming home to the WWE. That $5 billion distribution deal includes many live events.
• Netflix last week inked a deal to broadcast the FIFA Women's World Cup in the U.S. in 2027 and 2031.

What's next: Global ratings and additional U.S. insights will be released on Dec. 31, the NFL said. Those figures will provide a more comprehensive look at the NFL;s Christmas Gameday performance globally on Netflix.

A MAGA-world civil war erupted over Christmas when a social media post on American culture turned into a pitched battle over race, immigration and billionaires versus the working class.

Why it matters: The fight exposes one of the MAGA movement's deepest contradictions: It came to prominence chiefly via the white, less-educated, working class but is now under the full control of billionaire technologists and industrialists, many of them immigrants.

• It also sets up a tense MAGA vs. DOGE moment that could infect the early stages of President-elect Trump's second presidency.
• While some want to make America great by restricting immigration and promoting the American worker, others want to cut costs and increase efficiency no matter who does the work.

Catch up quick: The skirmishes started Sunday when Trump named venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan as his adviser on AI policy.

• Krishnan's appointment triggered an anti-Indian backlash on social media, particularly given his past advocacy for lifting caps on green cards.

Vivek Ramaswamy escalated the conflict into a full-blown war Thursday morning with a post on X blaming an American culture that "venerated mediocrity over excellence" for the growth in foreign tech workers.

• "A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers," Ramaswamy wrote, calling for a 1950s-style "Sputnik moment" to prioritize "nerdiness over conformity."
• "That's the work we have cut out for us, rather than wallowing in victimhood & just wishing (or legislating) alternative hiring practices into existence," he said.

Between the lines: Elon Musk's X is the town square for the MAGA movement, and by stepping into that square and firmly criticizing American culture — while praising the immigrant work ethic and parenting model — Ramaswamy threw down a gauntlet.

• Musk spent most of the afternoon trying to defend his DOGE co-leader and explain his argument, framing it as using immigration to supplement, rather than replace, American workers.
• "Maybe this is a helpful clarification: I am referring to bringing in via legal immigration the top ~0.1% of engineering talent as being essential for America to keep winning," Musk wrote.

The problem for many MAGA adherents, though, was accepting the very notion of immigrants telling them America needs more immigration to fill lucrative jobs in America.

• It revived old tensions around the H-1B visa, which is reserved for people who "perform services in a specialty obligation" but practically speaking has become a crucial tool of Silicon Valley's growth.
• In some recent years, as many as 75% of those petitioning for that visa came from India, from where Ramaswamy's parents immigrated.

What they're saying: "The Woodstock generation managed to build out aerospace, the one before went to the moon, America was doing great. Underlying your post is that we were all living in squalor until being rescued by H-1B's. Then why did everyone want to come here?" right-wing personality Mike Cernovich responded to Ramaswamy on X.

• "There is nothing wrong with American workers or American culture. All you have to do is look at the border and see how many want what we have. We should be investing and prioritizing in Americans, not foreign workers," Nikki Haley, the former GOP presidential candidate and herself a daughter of Indian immigrants, wrote.
• "I want the little guy to matter too. Not everyone has $1 million but they still love their country and want to MAGA and close the border," far-right activist Laura Loomer posted.
• Loomer posted a series of missives throughout the afternoon, calling out Ramaswamy, Musk and anyone else in Trump's orbit who isn't fully committed to closing the borders.

Zoom out: The fracture was familiar to anyone who's seen a movement expand — early adopters criticizing the latecomers for bringing different ideas.

• "Tech bros who took 8+ years to figure out that President Trump is not the bad guy and is in fact, the solution to America's problems, are really out here pontificating to MAGA patriots who figured it out a decade before them?" conservative streaming host Brenden Dilley posted on X.

The bottom line: For now the fight is mostly confined to X. But it's sure to raise difficult questions in the coming days about what Trump's administration will mean for immigration, labor and the American worker.

• It will also potentially settle a looming conflict over who has the most influence in Trump 2.0 — his historic base or his new-found techno-libertarian allies.

Authorities in Kazakhstan are investigating the cause of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in the country, which killed 38 people and injured 29 others on Christmas Day.

The big picture: Flight J2-8243 was diverted while en route from Baku, Azerbaijan's capital, to Gronzy in southern Russia.

• Images of the incident shared online show the Embraer 190 aircraft catching fire and splitting apart as it crash-landed near the Kazakh city of Aktau.
• The Kremlin is warning against "hypotheses," but aviation security analysts say it's "reminiscent" of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile system over rebel-held eastern Ukraine in 2014, per AFP.

State of play: Azerbaijan held a national day of mourning for the victims on Thursday, as Kazakh officials told media investigators had found the plane's black box at the crash site.

• A Kazakh official told reporters Thursday that an onboard cylinder containing oxygen exploded moments before the crash.
• A survivor told Russian media he remembered the pilot twice trying to land in dense fog over Grozny and then "the third time, something exploded, some of the aircraft skin had blown out."

Situation report: Chechnya, where Gronzy is located, is one of several areas where Russian air defense systems have targeted Ukrainian drones, officials said.

• Chechen media reported Wednesday Russian forces were repelling drone attacks in the region.

Between the lines: "Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system," said Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the U.K., in an alert to clients that was shared with media, which cited Kyiv's statement also accusing Russia's military of being behind the crash.

• Other factors included "circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia," said Osprey, which has provided analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines suspended flights due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• Justin Crump, of risk advisory firm Sibylline, told the BBC: "It looks very much like the detonation of [a Russian] air defense missile to the rear and to the left of the aircraft, if you look at the pattern of shrapnel that we see," he said.

Zoom in: Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson wrote that the firm had issued over 200 alerts on drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.

• An unnamed U.S. official told CNN that early indications indicated that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have shot down the plane.
• If confirmed, it could prove to be a case of mistaken identity involving Russian units that have not been properly trained firing "negligently against Ukraine's use of drones," the official said.

What they're saying: "It would be wrong to put forward any hypotheses before the investigation's conclusions," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a statement carried by state media.

• "We, of course, will not do this, and no-one should do this. We need to wait until the investigation is completed."

Go deeper: Dutch court convicts three for Malaysian Airlines MH17 plane crash

Elon Musk showed off a trimmer figure in a holiday social media post on Wednesday while revealing that he has been taking an anti-obesity drug to shed pounds.

Why it matters: Musk's post highlighted just how mainstream weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy have become in recent years as public figures openly admit to using them, helping transform perceptions and conversations around weight loss.

Driving the news: Musk posted a photo of himself on X on Christmas Day dressed up in a Santa costume, captioning the picture, "Ozempic Santa."

• "Technically, Mounjaro, but that doesn't have the same ring to it," he added.

The big picture: Mounjaro, Ozempic and Wegovy are all part of a buzzy class of drugs known as GLP-1 agonists, which are seen as potential game-changers for patients struggling with obesity and diabetes and are at risk for heart attack and stroke.

• However, weight-loss drugs have also surged in popularity among patients who don't necessarily need them to treat those ailments.
• The drugs' popularity among celebrities and TikTokers has also helped drive shortages for patients in need.

Between the lines: Musk is the latest in a string of public figures who have recently admitted to taking medication for weight loss.

• The comedian Jim Gaffigan told People magazine last month that he had used Mounjaro to lose weight.
• Singer Kelly Clarkson said in a May episode of her eponymous show that she had been taking a medication to help her lose weight after her "bloodwork got so bad," though she did not specify the name of the drug.

State of play: "Nothing would do more to improve the health, lifespan and quality of life for Americans than making GLP inhibitors super low cost to the public," Musk wrote in an X post earlier this month.

• Yet high price tags and insurance restrictions have made the drugs difficult to access for many everyday Americans.
• Last month, the Biden administration proposed a rule that would require Medicare and Medicaid to cover the anti-obesity drugs.
• Yet the Biden administration and Musk's support for increased access to the drugs is at odds with Robert F. Kennedy Jr's stance on the issue. President-elect Trump's nominee for secretary of the Health and Human Services Department has criticized the use of Ozempic.

Go deeper:

• United States of Ozempic: Where anti-obesity drugs are taking off
• Access is unequal to weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy: study

Footage showing a previously unseen Chinese warplane scrambled aviation geeks Thursday, with some joking the clips were the perfect Christmas present.

Why it matters: The aircraft emerges amid fiery debates about the future of airpower — manned versus unmanned, mainly — in the U.S. and abroad.

• Competition between Washington and Beijing is also boiling.

Zoom in: Videos and photos flooding social media show a large, delta-wing-style aircraft with a cockpit chased by a J-20S fighter.

• Its design suggests stealth.
• Russian state media quickly amplified the visuals, dubbing it the "White Emperor."
• Aviation Week reported that the main landing gear has the "hallmark of heavy fighter-bombers, such as the Sukhoi Su-34."

Yes, but: Much remains unknown about the aircraft. Neither the Chinese government nor industry immediately took credit for the daytime flight.

What we're watching: The fate of the U.S. Air Force's futuristic fighter is in the hands of the incoming Trump administration, following Secretary Frank Kendall's punt.

• "I don't want to make a decision that's going to be disrupted and reversed, potentially, by the new team," Kendall said Dec. 19 at a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event.
• "I don't want us to start industry down a specific course and then have to abruptly reverse that a few months from now."

About two-thirds of Americans have recently felt the need to limit their political news consumption, according to a recent poll.

Why it matters: The reluctance to consume political news is reflected in TV ratings. Americans of all parties, and Democrats in particular, are tuning out politics.

• People don't feel the same need to avoid news about overseas conflicts, the economy or climate change, per an AP-NORC survey conducted in early December.
• The poll also found that Americans want public figures to talk less about politics.

By the numbers: About seven in 10 Democrats said they're stepping back from political news.

• About six in 10 Republicans and independents say the same.

By the numbers: On Election Day, 25% fewer people watched coverage across 18 live TV networks this year compared to 2020.

• MSNBC and CNN have both seen viewership drop dramatically since election night.
• MSNBC's prime-time viewership dropped 54% in the five weeks after the election, while CNN's fell by 45%, per Nielsen data.

The other side: Fox News viewership has increased, the AP reported.

• Since the election, 72% of people watching any of the three main cable news networks have tuned into Fox, per AP. That figure was 53% before Election Day.

Zoom out: Americans began tuning out political news before the election, Axios' Sara Fischer previously reported.

• Engagement during the primary cycle was down earlier this year compared to the previous one.

What to watch: Network ratings in previous years have bounced back after the post-election news slump, per the AP.

• For now, it's unclear whether people who avoided news about the election and President-elect Trump's victory will tune back in for coverage of what he actually does as president.

Go deeper: Dems warm to conservative media after rough 2024

Methodology: The poll of 1,251 adults was conducted Dec. 5-9. The margin of error for adults overall is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Just 19% of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction as 2024 comes to a close, per Gallup's latest monthly survey.

Why it matters: Gallup's monthly data reveals a deep-seated pessimism among Americans about their country. You'd have to go back two decades to find a time when half of Americans felt the U.S. was on the right track.

• The last time even 30% of Americans felt the U.S. was heading in the right direction was summer 2021.

By the numbers: December's finding was down from 26% in October, largely because satisfaction among Democrats has fallen from 47% to 30% since the election.

• Only 9% of Republicans think the country is on the right track. That number jumped from 5% in October to 16% in November before sliding back down.
• 19% is the lowest result since July. The 2024 peak was 26% in October.
• President Biden's approval rose to 39% from 37% in November.

Flashback: Gallup's highest-ever finding (71%) came in Feb. 1999, while the lowest (7%) came in Oct. 2008, during the financial crisis.

Between the lines: The pessimism about the direction of the country comes despite a fairly positive economic trajectory.

• The percentage of Americans who view the economy as the main problem with the U.S. has fallen steadily in recent months, per Gallup.
• Democrats tend to cite President-elect Trump as a top concern, Republicans are more worried about immigration, and respondents from both parties still have concerns about inflation.

Zoom out: Americans are sending mixed messages across the economic spectrum.

• Consumer confidence surged in November as Republicans cheered Trump's victory, but then pulled back in December.
• Retail sales over the holiday look better than the National Retail Federation forecast, but not great for brick-and-mortar stores.

Medicare's $2,000 prescription drug cap will take effect at the start of the new year.

Why it matters: The yearly limit on out-of-pocket payments, under the Inflation Reduction Act, is expected to lower millions of seniors' medical costs. It will have a particularly significant impact for patients taking expensive drugs to treat cancer and other serious conditions.

By the numbers: Overall, 3.2 million Americans are expected to save money on prescription medications in 2025, increasing to 4.1 million by 2029, per AARP projections.

• Those figures vary by state. In Texas, 9% of beneficiaries are expected to hit the cap in 2025. That figure is as high as 18% in Alaska, per AARP.
• Nearly half of the Medicare enrollees expected to benefit from the spending limit are between 75 and 84 years old.
• About 1.5 million Medicare beneficiaries spent more than $2,000 on prescriptions in 2021, per KFF. Around 5 million exceeded $2,000 during at least one year between 2012-2021.

How it works: The cap doesn't apply to monthly insurance premiums or drugs administered at the doctor's office or other health care settings.

• Part D plans have historically not had a limit on out-of-pocket spending, according to AARP.
• Certain payments made on an enrollee's behalf, like through the Extra Help program, will count toward the $2,000.

Zoom out: The Inflation Reduction Act will bring other changes to Medicare Part D, too.

• It will make insulin available at $35 per month per covered prescription.
• Enrollees will also have the option to pay out-of-pocket costs in the form of capped monthly installment payments instead of all at once at the pharmacy.
• The Manufacturer Discount Program will replace the existing Coverage Gap Discount Program. It will require manufacturers to provide discounts on their applicable drugs.

Go deeper:

• Medicare drug coverage gets a facelift for 2025
• Scoop: Medicare pilot aims for $2 generic drugs

Apple is closing in on a $4 trillion stock market valuation, powered by investors cheering progress in the company's long-awaited AI enhancements to rejuvenate sluggish iPhone sales.

Why it matters: The company has pulled ahead of Nvidia and Microsoft in the race to the monumental milestone, thanks to an about 16% jump in shares since early November that has added about $500 billion to its market capitalization.

Go deeper: What Apple's AI knows about you

Big Tech is spending at a rate that's never been seen, sparking boom times for companies scrambling to facilitate the AI build-out.

Why it matters: AI is changing the economy, but not in the way most people assume.

• AI needs facilities and machines and power, and all of that has, in turn, fueled its own new spending involving real estate, building materials, semiconductors and energy.
• Energy providers have seen a huge boost in particular, because data centers require as much power as a small city.
• "Some of the greatest shifts in history are happening in certain industries," Stephan Feldgoise, co-head of M&A for Goldman Sachs, tells Axios. "You have this whole convergence of tech, semiconductors, data centers, hyperscalers and power producers."

Zoom out: Companies that are seeking fast growth into a nascent market typically spend on acquisitions.

• Tech companies are competing for high-paid staff and spending freely on research.
• But the key growth ingredient in the AI arms race so far is capital expenditure, or "capex."

Capital expenditure is an old school accounting term for what a company spends on physical assets such as factories and equipment.

• In the AI era, capex has come to signify what a company spends on data centers and the components they require.
• The biggest tech players have increased their capex by tens of billions of dollars this year, and they show no signs of pulling back in 2025.

The capex bonanza for data center growth is separate from the R&D that companies spend on chips and new AI technology.

• "R&D expenses are funding expanded investments in AI integration as well as the rising costs of training AI models," says Eric Hanselman, a chief analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
• As for capex, "spending on the equipment needed to fill data centers has accelerated dramatically," he says.

What's next: At the Goldman Sachs Private Innovative Company Conference held in Las Vegas last month, bankers presented a slide that read: "For Big Tech, is Capex The New M&A?"

• If the answer is yes, the worry is that data center spending fails to earn future investment returns. That will play out in the future.
• Also in the future is the potential for acquisitions when capex spending eases. For now, Goldman's Feldgoise believes that the data center build out is in its first phase. Larger-scale M&A is expected in phase two.
• "When winners emerge, they will start to consolidate," he says.

Our thought bubble: The fortunes being spent today on data centers for AI are jaw-dropping, but tech leaders are actually worrying about spending too little.

• "When you go through a curve like this, the risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting for us here," Google CEO Sundar Pichai told analysts in August.

The bottom line: Tech CEOs view their investments in data centers as all-purpose bets on the future.

• If the AI bubble pops, a data center can easily be put to work fueling whatever the next big wave in tech turns out to be.

President-elect Trump is setting the stage for an explosive first day in office: pardons for Jan. 6 rioters, a vacuum sealing of the southern border and a massive regulatory rollback affecting vast swathes of the American economy.

Why it matters: The tone of the next four years will be set on Day One. Trump and his transition — armed with a cannon of executive orders — are preparing an early shock-and-awe campaign to lay the foundation for his ambitious second term.

The big picture: Trump's Day One promises largely fall under three themes, according to an Axios analysis of hundreds of his speeches, press conferences and interviews.

1. Immigration: No issue has defined Trump's political identity more than his crusade against illegal immigration, particularly after border crossings surged to record highs under President Biden.

• A brain trust of West Wing border hawks — led by Stephen Miller and former acting ICE director Tom Homan — will help unleash a flurry of executive orders ending Biden's temporary "parole" programs, restarting construction of the border wall and suspending refugee admissions.
• Trump is hellbent on immediately launching the largest deportation operation in U.S. history, despite the logistical challenges. Watch out for a Day One photo op flexing the new administration's deportation muscle.
• The president-elect has also vowed to issue an executive order ending birthright citizenship, setting up a constitutional clash over the 14th Amendment that could wind up at the Supreme Court.

2. Red meat for MAGA: The second bucket of executive orders will seek to institutionalize the conservative culture wars that have dominated Republican politics over the last few years.

• Top priorities for Day One include a ban on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs and requirements across the federal government, and pardons for supporters convicted for breaking into the Capitol on Jan. 6.
• Trump, whose campaign spent millions of dollars on anti-trans ads, also wants to use executive action to ban trans women from women's sports, though the exact mechanism for doing so is not yet clear.

3. Big business: CEO and investor confidence has soared in the wake of the election, as Corporate America revels in Trump's promise to slash 10 regulations for every new one introduced during the Biden administration.

• Trump has vowed to expedite permits for drilling and fracking, even if it means acting like a "dictator" for one day. Inauguration will also start the clock on his one-year goal of reducing energy prices by 50%.
• Trump plans to aggressively target Biden's climate policies by cutting off support for electric vehicles and rolling back emissions standards, as well as any "job-killing" regulations affecting automakers.
• Wall Street, meanwhile, is working feverishly to persuade Trump not to impose sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners — but he seems intent on ushering in a new era of MAGA protectionism as quickly as possible.

Between the lines: Many of Trump's sweeping promises will require the support of Congress. Others have proven to be hyperbole, which Trump himself has acknowledged.

• "It's hard to bring [prices] down once they're up. You know, it's very hard," the president-elect told NBC's "Meet the Press," despite constantly pledging to crush inflation on the campaign trail.
• Trump has also tamped down his talk of settling the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office, telling reporters last week that peace may even be "more difficult" than ending the Israel-Hamas war.

Beyoncé performed a medley of hits from her record-breaking "Cowboy Carter" album during Netflix's first-ever NFL Christmas Gameday halftime show on Wednesday.

The big picture: Guests at the show in Houston, Texas, during the break at the Houston Texans-Baltimore Raven game included Post Malone, Shaboozey, Reyna Roberts, Tanner Adell, Brittney Spencer, and Tiera Kennedy, and Beyoncé's elder daughter, Blue Ivy Carter.

Go deeper: Beyoncé makes history again with "Cowboy Carter"

President Biden on Wednesday denounced Russia's large-scale Christmas Day attacks on Ukraine that damaged critical energy infrastructure and vowed to continue a U.S. surge in weapons deliveries to Kyiv.

The big picture: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on X called the attacks "inhumane," while Russia's Defense Ministry said the "long-range precision weapons and strike drones on critical energy infrastructure facilities" in Ukraine had achieved the goal of Putin's forces.

• At least one person in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region died and six others in Kharkiv were injured during the attacks, according to local officials.

What they're saying: "The purpose of this outrageous attack was to cut off the Ukrainian people's access to heat and electricity during winter and to jeopardize the safety of its grid," Biden said in a statement.

• "In recent months, the United States has provided Ukraine with hundreds of air defense missiles, and more are on the way," added Biden, who will be succeeded by President-elect Trump next month.
• "I have directed the Department of Defense to continue its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and the United States will continue to work tirelessly to strengthen Ukraine's position in its defense against Russian forces."

Trump's pick for special envoy for Ukraine and Russia also criticized the assault. "Christmas should be a time of peace, yet Ukraine was brutally attacked on Christmas Day," Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg said on X.

• "Launching large-scale missile and drone attacks on the day of the Lord's birth is wrong. The world is closely watching actions on both sides. The U.S. is more resolved than ever to bring peace to the region."

Go deeper: Russia says it's using bitcoin to evade sanctions

President Biden and President-elect Trump both delivered warm Christmas messages as a change in presidential administrations nears, though the Republican leader went on to take aim at Canada, the Panama Canal and Greenland.

The big picture: Biden in a post to X acknowledging this would be the last time as president he'd wish the nation a Merry Christmas said he hoped the U.S. would "continue to seek the light of liberty and love, kindness and compassion, dignity and decency."

• He later said in a message wishing a happy Hanukkah, "As Hanukkah begins, may it shine from menorahs around the world."

Meanwhile, Trump began on Truth Social by wishing a Merry Christmas to all and posted a video with Melania Trump paying tribute to Christianity and thanking Americans who keep the U.S. safe before extending his holiday wishes in a later post to Chinese soldiers that he claimed were "lovingly, but illegally," operating the Panama Canal.

Zoom in: Trump did not elaborate further on these claims. Instead, he moved on to single out "Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada," whose citizens he said paid taxes that were "far too high."

• If Canada "was to become our 51st State, their Taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other Country anywhere in the World," said Trump, who in a later post wished a Merry Christmas to "Radical Left Lunatics."
• "Likewise, to the people of Greenland, which is needed by the United States for National Security purposes and, who want the U.S. to be there, and we will!" added Trump, who will be sworn in as president on Jan. 20.

Context: Trump's remarks build on earlier comments about Panama, Canada and Greenland.

• He's floated the idea of the U.S. taking ownership of Greenland and suggested annexing Canada amid border security negotiations in a pitch that Axios' Dave Lawler notes is designed at least in part to needle Prime Minister Trudeau.
• And he's said the Panama Canal should be returned to the United States if Panamanian authorities don't lower fees for U.S. ships.

Flashback: Biden, Trump deliver starkly different Fourth of July messages

Bird flu cases in Washington have spread to an animal sanctuary, resulting in the deaths of 20 big cats and forcing the center into quarantine until further notice.

The big picture: Wild Felid Advocacy Center in Shelton is working closely with public health officials to monitor workers and animals after the presence of bird flu (HPAI) was confirmed in some big cats at the sanctuary, per a statement on its website.

• The center confirmed in a Friday Facebook post that the virus had killed five African servals, four bobcats, four cougars and two Canada lynx. One Amur/Bengal tiger, a Bengal cat, an African caracal, a Geoffroy's cat and a Eurasian lynx also died of bird flu.
• The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife in a statement warning that bird flu cases were on the rise in the state confirmed two cougars in Clallam County contracted the H5N1 strain of the virus.

Zoom in: The sanctuary said in a Dec. 2 Facebook post earlier this month that it would temporarily close because some of its big cats were "experiencing unknown illness" and confirmed four days later that bird flu had been detected in the animals.

• "We are heartbroken to share that animal health officials have confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) among over half of our wild felids as of December," per a Friday Facebook post from the nonprofit that houses big cats were previously not well looked after or whose owners could no longer care for them.
• Mark Mathews, founder and director of the sanctuary, told the New York Times on Tuesday that the animals' deaths occurred from late November to mid-December.
• The center has removed 8,000lbs of frozen food and had begun the weeks-long task of disinfecting the area the area, per the NYT.

What we're watching: The cause of the outbreak was not immediately known, but the center noted on Facebook that bird flu "spreads primarily through respiratory secretions and bird-to-bird contact and can also be contracted by carnivorous mammals that ingest birds or other products."

• Cats "are particularly vulnerable to this virus, which can cause subtle initial symptoms but progress rapidly, often resulting in death within 24 hours due to pneumonia-like conditions," the post added.

What they're saying: "This tragedy has deeply affected our team, and we are all grieving the loss of these incredible animals," the sanctuary said in its post.

• Mathews told the NYT they'd "never had anything like it." The big cats "usually die basically of old age," not something like this "pretty wicked virus," he said.
• "It looks like the virus has taken its course," he added. "We're just trying to make [one of the animals] that's incapacitated now just a little stronger."

What's next: The sanctuary aims to reopen in the new year, per the center's website.

Zoom out: A pet food company in Oregon this week issued a voluntary recall of its raw and frozen products, as state officials investigate the bird flu death of an indoor cat that they linked to its food.

• Meanwhile, Los Angeles County health officials are investigating the H5 bird flu deaths of four house cats that consumed recalled raw milk.

Go deeper: CDC reports first severe human case of bird flu in U.S.

A pet food company in Oregon has issued a voluntary recall of its raw and frozen products, as state officials investigate the bird flu death of a cat that they linked to its food.

The big picture: Northwest Naturals' recall of its 2lb Feline Turkey Recipe brand also prompted Los Angeles County health officials to warn pet owners not to feed their animals raw food.

Driving the news: Testing conducted by health officials confirmed a house cat in Washington County, Ore., "contracted H5N1 and died after consuming the raw frozen pet food," per a statement the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) issued on Tuesday.

• "Tests confirmed a genetic match between the virus in the raw and frozen pet food and the infected cat," the statement added.

Details: The recalled product is packaged in 2-pound plastic bags with "Best if used by" dates of May 21, 2026 and June 23, 2026, per a statement from Northwest Naturals.

• The product was sold through distributors in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Washington and the Canadian province of British Columbia.
• Public health officials are monitoring household members who had contact with the dead cat, but the ODA said no human cases of HPAI had so far been linked to this incident.

What they're saying: "We are confident that this cat contracted H5N1 by eating the Northwest Naturals raw and frozen pet food," said ODA State Veterinarian Ryan Scholz in a statement.

• "This cat was strictly an indoor cat; it was not exposed to the virus in its environment, and results from the genome sequencing confirmed that the virus recovered from the raw pet food and infected cat were exact matches to each other."

Zoom out: The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in its advisory that it recently confirmed H5 bird flu in four house cats that consumed recalled raw milk and became sick and died in incidents currently under investigation.

• "Public Health is also investigating additional possible cases of H5 bird flu in three house cats from a different household," the department said.
• "Public Health is awaiting confirmatory testing. These cats were not known to be exposed to raw milk, however public health is investigating other possible sources of infection, including raw meat."

Go deeper: CDC reports first severe human case of bird flu in U.S.