What to know about the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash and Russia's possible role in it
Authorities in Kazakhstan are investigating the cause of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in the country, which killed 38 people and injured 29 others on Christmas Day.
The big picture: Flight J2-8243 was diverted while en route from Baku, Azerbaijan's capital, to Gronzy in southern Russia.
- Images of the incident shared online show the Embraer 190 aircraft catching fire and splitting apart as it crash-landed near the Kazakh city of Aktau.
- The Kremlin is warning against "hypotheses," but aviation security analysts say it's "reminiscent" of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile system over rebel-held eastern Ukraine in 2014, per AFP.
State of play: Azerbaijan held a national day of mourning for the victims on Thursday, as Kazakh officials told media investigators had found the plane's black box at the crash site.
- A Kazakh official told reporters Thursday that an onboard cylinder containing oxygen exploded moments before the crash.
- A survivor told Russian media he remembered the pilot twice trying to land in dense fog over Grozny and then "the third time, something exploded, some of the aircraft skin had blown out."
Situation report: Chechnya, where Gronzy is located, is one of several areas where Russian air defense systems have targeted Ukrainian drones, officials said.
- Chechen media reported Wednesday Russian forces were repelling drone attacks in the region.
Between the lines: "Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system," said Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the U.K., in an alert to clients that was shared with media, which cited Kyiv's statement also accusing Russia's military of being behind the crash.
- Other factors included "circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia," said Osprey, which has provided analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines suspended flights due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- Justin Crump, of risk advisory firm Sibylline, told the BBC: "It looks very much like the detonation of [a Russian] air defense missile to the rear and to the left of the aircraft, if you look at the pattern of shrapnel that we see," he said.
Zoom in: Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson wrote that the firm had issued over 200 alerts on drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
- An unnamed U.S. official told CNN that early indications indicated that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have shot down the plane.
- If confirmed, it could prove to be a case of mistaken identity involving Russian units that have not been properly trained firing "negligently against Ukraine's use of drones," the official said.
What they're saying: "It would be wrong to put forward any hypotheses before the investigation's conclusions," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a statement carried by state media.
- "We, of course, will not do this, and no-one should do this. We need to wait until the investigation is completed."
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