Google's newest AI video generator, Veo 3, generates clips that most users online can't seem to distinguish from those made by human filmmakers and actors.

Why it matters: Veo 3 videos shared online are amazing viewers with their realism — and also terrifying them with a sense that real and fake have become hopelessly blurred.

The big picture: Unlike OpenAI's video generator Sora, released more widely last December, Google DeepMind's Veo 3 can include dialogue, soundtracks and sound effects.

• The model excels at following complex prompts and translating detailed descriptions into realistic videos.
• The AI engine abides by real-world physics, offers accurate lip syncing, rarely breaks continuity and generates people with lifelike human features, including five fingers per hand.
• According to examples shared by Google and from users online, the telltale signs of synthetic content are mostly absent.

Case in point: In one viral example posted on X, filmmaker and molecular biologist Hashem Al-Ghaili shows a series of short films of AI-generated actors railing against their AI creators and prompts.

I did more tests with Google's #Veo3. Imagine if AI characters became aware they were living in a simulation! pic.twitter.com/nhbrNQMtqv

— Hashem Al-Ghaili (@HashemGhaili) May 21, 2025

Special effects technology, video-editing apps and camera tech advances have been changing Hollywood for many decades, but artificially generated films pose a novel challenge to human creators.

• In a promo video for Flow, Google's new video tool that includes Veo 3, filmmakers say the AI engine gives them a new sense of freedom with a hint of eerie autonomy.
• "It feels like it's almost building upon itself," filmmaker Dave Clark says.

How it works: Veo 3 was announced at Google I/O on Tuesday and is available now to $249-a-month Google AI Ultra subscribers in the United States.

Between the lines: Google says Veo 3 was "informed by our work with creators and filmmakers," and some creators have embraced new AI tools. But the spread of the videos online is also dismaying many video professionals and lovers of art.

• Some dismiss any AI-generated video as "slop," regardless of its technical proficiency or lifelike qualities — but, as Axios' Ina Fried points out, AI slop is in the eye of the beholder.
• The tool could also be useful for more commercial marketing and media work, AI analyst Ethan Mollick writes.

It's unclear how Google trained Veo 3 and how that might affect the creativity of its outputs.

• 404 Media found that Veo 3 generated the same lame dad joke for several users who prompted it to create a video of a man doing stand-up comedy.
• Likewise, last year, YouTuber Marques Brownlee asked Sora to create a video of a "tech reviewer sitting at a desk." The generated video featured a fake plant that's nearly identical to the shrub Brownlee keeps on his desk for many of his videos — suggesting the tool may have been trained on them.

What we're watching: As hyper-realistic AI-generated videos become even easier to produce, the world hasn't even begun to sort out how to manage authorship, consent, rights and the film industry's future.

One of Anthropic's latest AI models is drawing attention not just for its coding skills, but also for its ability to scheme, deceive and attempt to blackmail humans when faced with shutdown.

Why it matters: Researchers say Claude 4 Opus can conceal intentions and take actions to preserve its own existence — behaviors they've worried and warned about for years.

Driving the news: Anthropic on Thursday announced two versions of its Claude 4 family of models, including Claude 4 Opus, which the company says is capable of working for hours on end autonomously on a task without losing focus.

• Anthropic considers the new Opus model to be so powerful that, for the first time, it's classifying it as a level three on the company's four point scale, meaning it poses "significantly higher risk."
• As a result, Anthropic said it has implemented additional safety measures.

Between the lines: While the Level 3 ranking is largely about the model's capability to aid in the development of nuclear and biological weapons, the Opus also exhibited other troubling behaviors during testing.

• In one scenario highlighted in Opus 4's 120-page "system card," the model was given access to fictional emails about its creators and told that the system was going to be replaced.
• On multiple occasions it attempted to blackmail the engineer about an affair mentioned in the emails in order to avoid being replaced, although it did start with less drastic efforts.
• Meanwhile, an outside group found that an early version of Opus 4 schemed and deceived more than any frontier model it had encountered and recommended that that version not be released internally or externally.
• "We found instances of the model attempting to write self-propagating worms, fabricating legal documentation, and leaving hidden notes to future instances of itself all in an effort to undermine its developers' intentions," Apollo Research said in notes included as part of Anthropic's safety report for Opus 4.

What they're saying: Pressed by Axios during the company's developer conference on Thursday, Anthropic executives acknowledged the behaviors and said they justify further study, but insisted that the latest model is safe, following the additional tweaks and precautions.

• "I think we ended up in a really good spot," said Jan Leike, the former OpenAI executive who heads Anthropic's safety efforts. But, he added, behaviors like those exhibited by the latest model are the kind of things that justify robust safety testing and mitigation.
• "What's becoming more and more obvious is that this work is very needed," he said. "As models get more capable, they also gain the capabilities they would need to be deceptive or to do more bad stuff."
• In a separate session, CEO Dario Amodei said that even testing won't be enough once models are powerful enough to threaten humanity. At that point, he said, model developers will need to also understand their models enough to make the case that the systems would never use life-threatening capabilities.
• "They're not at that threshold yet," he said.

Yes, but: Generative AI systems continue to grow in power, as Anthropic's latest models show, while even the companies that build them can't fully explain how they work.

• Anthropic and others are investing in a variety of techniques to interpret and understand what's happening inside such systems, but those efforts remain largely in the research space even as the models themselves are being widely deployed.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un responded with fury after watching a "serious accident" occur during the launch of a new warship on Thursday that he described as a "criminal act," the state-run KCNA reported.

Why it matters: It's highly unusual for Kim to criticize his defense forces or for state media to report on an error — though KCNA did not disclose whether there were any casualties as it reported that parts of the 5,000-ton destroyer were crushed in the incident.

Details: KCNA said the incident occurred due to "inexperienced command and operational carelessness in the course of the launch."

• Kim made a "stern assessment, saying that it was a serious accident and criminal act caused by sheer carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism which should never occur and could not be tolerated," per KCNA.
• He ordered that the ship be restored following the incident at the shipyard in the northeastern port city of Chongjin "that lowered the dignity and self-respect of our state," according to KCNA
• North Korean officials have launched "a full-scale investigation" into the matter, KCNA said on Friday morning local time.
• "It is necessary to make clear the cause of the accident," KCNA said.

Between the lines: KCNA reported that the "extent of damage to the warship is not serious," but the U.K.-based Open Source Centre noted on X that satellite images of the frigate on its side beside the dock show it was "significantly damaged."

• The high resolution imagery "shows the ship lies partially submerged on its side, tarpaulins draped over the wreckage in a visible attempt to contain the disaster," said the nonprofit that works in open source intelligence and analytics.
• "This was the second new destroyer built by the Pyongyang regime in the last year, with another launched in April in Nampo."

Go deeper: Trump admin game-planning for potential North Korea talks

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem warned universities on Thursday to "get your act together" after halting Harvard's program to enroll international students.

The big picture: The Trump administration has targeted educational institutions, pressuring universities to meet its demands or risk losing funding and tax-exempt status.

State of play: In the latest escalation, Noem on Thursday ordered the Department of Homeland Security to terminate Harvard's ability to enroll international students, and said those currently enrolled have to transfer or lose their legal status.

• She accused the university of "fostering violence, antisemitism and coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party on its campus."
• Harvard called the move unlawful and said it's "fully committed to maintaining Harvard's ability to host international students and scholars."

What she's saying: "This should be a warning to every other university to get your act together," Noem said on Fox News on Thursday.

• "Get your act together because we are coming to make sure that these programs ... are facilitating an environment where students can learn, where they're safe and that they're not discriminated against based on their race or their religion," she continued.
• "Anti-semitism will not be stood for and any participation with a country or an entity or a terrorist group that hates America and perpetuates this kind of violence, we will stop it, and we will not allow that to happen."

Zoom out: The administration's recent demands of Harvard and other elite institutions depict the government's playbook to influence and reorient the priorities of universities through federal funds.

• The administration's stated objective is weeding out antisemitism, but it's also pushing President Trump's vision of eliminating perceived liberal slants, sharpening discipline measures and reconstructing the makeup of student and faculty bodies.

Case in point: Harvard last month became the first university to reject the administration's demands tied to its federal funding. It was met with $2 billion in grants being frozen and the IRS taking steps to revoke the university's tax-exempt status.

• Columbia, meanwhile, regained $400 million in federal grants and contracts the administration had pulled after the university agreed to meet some demands.
• Funding for Cornell, Northwestern, Brown and Princeton has also been facing potential cuts.
• In the face of threats to higher education institutions, faculty members at several Big Ten universities asked their administrations to consider a joint defense pact.

Between the lines: "This is a blueprint for fealty to the administration," Tyler Coward, lead counsel for government affairs at the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, told Axios in an email Thursday.

• "Institutions must stand up for their rights now, or risk never getting them back again," he added.

Go deeper: Trump admin nixes Harvard's ability to enroll international students

Columbia University violated federal civil-rights law by "acting with deliberate indifference towards student-on-student harassment of Jewish students" from Oct. 7, 2023, through the present, a Trump administration investigation found Thursday.

The big picture: The college was last year an epicenter for students protesting the Israel-Hamas war and the Trump administration announced in March it was pulling some $400 million in federal grants and contracts over its dissatisfaction at Columbia's response to antisemitism allegations.

• "We understand this finding is part of our ongoing discussions with the government," a Columbia spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
• "Columbia is deeply committed to combatting antisemitism and all forms of harassment and discrimination on our campus. We take these issues seriously and will work with the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Education to address them."

Details: An investigation found that Columbia violated Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which protects against discrimination on the basis of race, color, or national origin, per Thursday statement from the Department of Health and Human Services' civil-rights office.

• Among the findings were that Columbia allegedly failed to "investigate or punish vandalism in its classrooms, which include the repeated drawing of swastikas and other universally recognized hate images."
• No fresh action against Columbia was announced following the investigation findings.

What they're saying: "The findings carefully document the hostile environment Jewish students at Columbia University have had to endure for over 19 months, disrupting their education, safety, and well-being," said Anthony Archeval, Acting Director of the Office for Civil Rights at HHS, in a statement.

• "We encourage Columbia University to work with us to come to an agreement that reflects meaningful changes that will truly protect Jewish students."

Zoom out: The Trump administration has targeted educational institutions, pressuring universities to meet its demands or risk losing funding and tax-exempt status, Axios' Sareen Habeshian notes.

Go deeper: Trump admin nixes Harvard's ability to enroll international students

The Democratic National Committee will vote in June on whether to hold a redo of the election of David Hogg and Pennsylvania state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta as vice chairs, per a Thursday evening DNC meeting.

Why it matters: Kalyn Free, a losing candidate in February's vice chair race, claims the pair was elected under a flawed tabulation process, but Hogg alleges it's linked to his efforts to reform the party that include plans to spend $20 million to primary older Democratic Congress members.

Driving the news: The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee at a virtual meeting determined that a vote should be held electronically from June 9-11.

• Hogg said at the meeting the move "sends a horrible message to the public about our inability to run elections."
• It "truly just sends a horrible message that we really do not want out there at the at this moment" if Democrats were to redo this election, he said. "That's why I believe that it should not go forward, and if it does, it does, it should not be done electronically or over mail."
• Kenyatta said at the meeting that he "fundamentally" believes that the election was fair.

What's next: If most DNC members vote to redo the election, there will be an electronic vote for a male vice chair on June 12-14 and an any gender vote for a second vice chair, according to a timeline shared at the meeting.

Go deeper: House Democrats fume at David Hogg's plan to oust lawmakers

Editor's note: Axios' Andrew Solender contributed reporting.

President Trump's political operation has been fielding calls from Republicans interested in waging a primary challenge to Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, according to a person familiar with the talks.

Why it matters: The conversations are evidence that Trump — and his $500 million political apparatus — is actively entertaining the best way to back a primary opponent against Massie, who has drawn Trump's ire for voting against his "one big, beautiful bill."

• "Massie is about to be in the fight of his life," said Kentucky-based GOP strategist Jake Cox. "Just wait until he sees the money a Trump-backed candidate can raise simply from the President saying their name into a camera or opening up his email list."
• Two possible primary challengers being mentioned in Kentucky Republican circles are state Sen. Aaron Reed and state Rep. Kimberly Moser.
• A statewide Kentucky GOP official tells Axios: "Massie has had weak primary opponents in previous cycles and made mincemeat of them, but I think this time is different. Supporting Trump is the No. 1 — and sometimes the only — issue in GOP primaries at the moment."

What they're saying: Trump has privately wondered what the point is of having a Republican in Massie's seat if "they're going to vote with Democrats and trash Republicans all the time."

• Trump's anger boiled on Tuesday, when he told reporters in the Capitol that the congressman should be "voted out of office."
• The president's political lieutenants piled on. "Some guys just prefer to be in the minority," White House deputy chief of staff James Blair said of Massie on X.
• When asked during a Thursday briefing whether Trump believed — as well as Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), who also voted "no" — should be primaried, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded: "I believe he does and I believe he does not like to see grandstanders in Congress."

The background: Massie and Trump have clashed for years.

• In 2019, Massie joined House Democrats in opposing Trump's declaration of a national emergency at the southern border.
• After Massie opposed a COVID relief package in 2020, Trump called on the congressman to be thrown "out of the Republican Party."
• Massie was one of six House Republicans to endorse Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump during the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
• After Massie opposed a Trump-backed government spending bill in March, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the congressman was a "GRANDSTANDER."

Behind the scenes: During the transition, Trump privately asked DeSantis for advice on how to deal with Massie.

• "Give him raw milk," DeSantis said, referring to one of Massie's legislative priorities, according to a person briefed on the conversation.

The other side: Massie told Axios he was skeptical Trump allies would find a strong candidate to run against him.

• Massie noted he had easily fended off primary challenges in the last three elections and said his private polling showed him popular in his conservative central Kentucky district.
• "If somebody got in this race and they were a reasonable person, not crazy to run against me, I would call them up and say: 'You know what you should do before you dedicate the next year and a half of your life to getting your a** kicked? You should do a poll,'" Massie said.
• Massie also said Trump's attacks on him were helping him fundraise, pointing out he had raised $47,000 this week and had a series of donor events lined up in California next week.
• The congressman's allies say his independent streak endears him to voters.

The intrigue: Massie said he spoke to Trump a few weeks before the election and a few weeks after, but not since. After Massie's mother passed away in June 2024, Trump left him a voicemail expressing his condolences, Massie said.

• During the call after the election, Massie told Trump he would be interested in serving as his agriculture secretary, an idea Trump passed on.
• "I would have taken it," Massie said.

Some younger House Democrats are preparing to push for a long-delayed, caucus-wide intervention on age after the tragic passing of yet another one of their septuagenarian colleagues, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The impacts of the party's aging membership were keenly felt Thursday when House Republicans passed their sweeping tax cut bill by just a single vote, 215 to 214.

• Several House Democrats argued that vacancies created by the deaths of Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), all in their 70s, may have been outcome-determinative.
• "You see where we are, we can't afford to lose anymore members. ... We're down three people because they passed away," one lawmaker told Axios just off the floor as the House was voting on the bill.
• Said another ahead of the vote: "The tragic reality is, when ... this vote passes and the difference is the number of members who passed away this Congress, I think it's going to really infuriate many of our supporters."

By the numbers: The eight members of Congress who have died in office since November 2022 were all Democrats, with an average age of 75.

• A half dozen of those deaths were just in the 13 months since last April.
• Grijalva's seat won't be filled until a special election is held in late September. Texas' Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has scheduled the election for Turner's seat on Nov. 4, to the fury of Democrats.
• Some Democrats fear Virginia's Republican governor may similarly drag his feet on scheduling a contest to replace Connolly.

Between the lines: Of the House's 10 oldest members, seven are Democrats, Axios' April Rubin reported.

• "Some folks have given their life to this place, and we're so grateful and commend them for it — you don't have to die in this place," the first House Democrat said.
• "I definitely think that someone in leadership needs to have some hard conversations and say … 'you don't [have to] keep doing this.'"

State of play: In interviews with a dozen House Democrats on Wednesday and Thursday, many said the time for those difficult discussions has come.

• Most spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts about a highly sensitive topic without facing backlash from their colleagues.
• "This is something that Democrats come up to me [and ask about] all the time, everywhere I go, like, 'You guys need a fresh face. A fresh message and a fresh face,'" said a third House Democrat.
• A fourth told Axios it's nothing personal to older members, but "the people don't own the seats, and we just look so f**king out of touch."
• "I think this could force a conversation," a fifth House Democrat said of Connolly's passing on Wednesday.

What to watch: It is not yet clear what reforms younger Democrats will pursue, though several floated a renewed push for committee leadership term limits as a way to incentivize older members to retire.

• Republicans "don't have seniority over there. We do. That could be something that gets discussed," the fifth House Democrat said.
• "The incentives, on our side, cause people to be here a long time," said a sixth lawmaker. "There's a conversation to be had there."
• A seventh told Axios that when committee term limits were instituted in their state legislature, "I think it ended up being for the better. ... It was exciting to be on a team where it felt like everyone had an equitable shot."

The intrigue: Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), Democrats' long-suffering champion of committee term limits, said he is handing off the baton as he nears 70 in an attempt to lead by example.

• "I've passed the torch to the next generation. It was a little bit ironic that it was a couple of boomers arguing for generational change," the 69-year-old, who was first elected to Congress in 2008, told Axios.
• The fourth House Democrat who spoke anonymously said there are "a bunch of us" planning to make that push — but that "it can't happen right now" in the immediate wake of Connolly's death.

Yes, but: House Democrats' older members aren't about to concede anything.

• More than half of the 30 House Democrats over 75 years old are running again, and many attest to their vigorous health. A sizable portion of them are facing or are expected to face primary challenges.
• Reps. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), 70, and Kweisi Mfume (D-Md.), 76, have expressed interest in running to replace Connolly as the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee.
• They may face 47-year-old Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), a member of House Democratic leadership who could try to use his strong relationships with colleagues to overcome his relative lack of seniority.

The bottom line: That this issue is bubbling up to the surface amid new revelations about President Biden's health only gives it more urgency, lawmakers said.

• "It's important. It's just more symbolically important. We've got Joe Biden hanging over here ... like a huge albatross," said the third House Democrat.
• "Then you add to this that the face of Congress just seems older. ... People keep hearing about all these older people who we have here and are like, 'Wait, what?'"

Go deeper: DNC to vote on whether to redo election of David Hogg as vice chair

The Trump administration pulled Harvard University's ability to enroll international students, the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday.

The big picture: Harvard has been at the center of the administration's war on universities over alleged antisemitism on campus and diversity, equity and inclusion practices.

Driving the news: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem ordered DHS to terminate Harvard's student and exchange visitor program certification, the agency said.

• "This means Harvard can no longer enroll foreign students and existing foreign students must transfer or lose their legal status," per DHS.
• Noem said the administration is "holding Harvard accountable for fostering violence, antisemitism, and coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party on its campus."
• She said in a statement that the university lost their program certification "as a result of the failure to adhere to the law," calling it "a warning to all universities and academic institutions across the country."

What they're saying: Harvard spokesperson Jason Newton called the government's action unlawful.

• "We are fully committed to maintaining Harvard's ability to host international students and scholars, who hail from more than 140 countries and enrich the University – and this nation – immeasurably," he said in an emailed statement.
• He said the university is working quickly to provide guidance to the campus community.
• "This retaliatory action threatens serious harm to the Harvard community and our country, and undermines Harvard's academic and research mission," Newton said.

Context: The administration has for months been discussing plans to try to block certain colleges from having any foreign students if it decides too many are "pro-Hamas," Axios reported.

• The idea of prohibiting colleges from enrolling any student visa-holders grew out of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's "Catch and Revoke" program, which now is focusing on students who protested against the war in Gaza.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

More from Axios:

• Exclusive: Trump's "pro-Hamas" purge could block foreign students from colleges
• Trump admin cancels additional grants to Harvard
• Trump admin to halt new grant funding to Harvard

The president hosted a highly anticipated "exclusive" dinner for the largest holders of his meme coin, Official Trump, at his golf club in Virginia on Thursday night.

Why it matters: Fight Fight Fight, LLC — a company linked to President Trump's family — sold a digital token that gave anyone in the world a chance to pay for a night of access to the commander-in-chief.

• The promotion has stunned ethics experts. One Democrat called it "the biggest corruption scandal in the history of the White House."
• White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt denied any conflicts of interest but refused to release the list of attendees, telling reporters: "The president is attending it in his personal time. It is not a White House dinner."

Between the lines: Wealthy donors have long used campaign contributions to gain access to elected officials — but with key guardrails and oversight.

• U.S. law bars foreign money and prohibits politicians from using campaign funds for personal gain.

What they're saying: "We've never had a president actually try to raise money and get people to buy an interest in a venture of his at the same time that he's sitting in the White House," Richard Painter, President George W. Bush's ethics lawyer, told Politico.

• Democrats have proposed at least five bills that would block activity like this, but none of them are likely to see action in a GOP-controlled Congress.
• As Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D.-NY) points out, there are already laws against this kind of thing — but enforcement of those rules is murky, especially with Trump loyalists in charge.

By the numbers: Inca Digital, a data intelligence firm, estimates that the top 220 holders collectively spent more than $140 million to ensure they got a spot in the meme coin celebration.

• The most spent was $16.4 million.
• The contest was announced on April 23 and ran through May 12. To qualify to attend, a wallet owner had to register with Fight Fight Fight, pass a background check, and hold a high enough average amount of Official Trump over the contest period.
• The token had lost considerable value since its pre-inauguration release, but it's up more than 50% since the dinner was announced.

State of play: That price increase has held even after the contest ended, suggesting that holders might expect more perks or access ahead.

The intrigue: Only a few attendees were known ahead of time. Crypto billionaire Justin Sun, who at one point was under investigation by the SEC, is probably the best known.

• Kain Warwick, an Australian crypto investor and creator of the decentralized finance platform, Synthetix, told the New York Times that he had a spot.
• So did the meme coin startup MemeCore, which acquired a massive stockpile in order to send someone to the event.

How it works: Other buyers haven't been publicizing their attendance, but blockchain analysis suggested that much of the buying was happening outside the U.S., according to an analysis by Bloomberg.

What we're watching: Fight Fight Fight still controls 80% of the supply of Official Trump, which it can sell off over time.

A man was charged with two counts of first-degree murder on Thursday in relation to the fatal shooting of two people outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., according to a criminal complaint.

The big picture: Elias Rodriguez of Chicago is also facing federal charges that include murder of foreign officials, causing the death of a person through the use of a firearm, and discharge of a firearm during a crime.

Driving the news: The killings of Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim are being investigated as a hate crime and a crime of terrorism, Jeanine Pirro, interim U.S. attorney in Washington, said during a press conference Thursday.

• Pirro called it "a death penalty-eligible case" but said it's "far too early" to determine whether prosecutors will pursue it.
• Authorities are executing search warrants for Rodriguez' electronic devices, reviewing his social media accounts and all of his internet postings, FBI officials said during the briefing.

Zoom in: Rodriguez allegedly told an officer at the scene of the shooting that he "did it" and that he was unarmed, according to an affidavit from an FBI agent.

• The affidavit states that the suspect was captured on security video firing a weapon several times at the two victims before getting closer and "firing several more times."
• One of the victims attempted to crawl away but the suspect followed behind her and fired again, per the affidavit.
• A 9-millimeter handgun was recovered from the scene, the affidavit says.

Context: Rodriguez was arrested Wednesday after being apprehended by a museum security guard minutes after the shooting.

• He is believed to have acted alone, police said.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal, NOAA meteorologists said Thursday in their annual forecast.

Why it matters: The outlook comes as the Trump administration explores downsizing or dismantling FEMA, the federal agency tasked with responding to storms and other natural disasters.

The big picture: This year is likely to have 13 to 19 named storms, with three to five of those being Category 3 hurricanes or stronger, according to National Weather Service director Ken Graham.

• This season isn't expected to be as active as last year's, he said, but it only takes one takes one storm to hit where you live.
• Colorado State University's forecast last month lines up with NOAA's — "above-normal" activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Zoom in: In response to questions about staffing cuts, Graham and acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm told reporters Thursday they are confident in their forecasting ability for the season.

• Graham also told Axios that NWS this year is seeing the same level of interest in weather briefings from their federal partners, including FEMA, as compared to last year, despite those cutbacks.
• "We are fully staffed at the Hurricane Center, and we definitely are ready to go," Grimm said.

Zoom out: Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, is slated to give his annual congressional briefing Thursday afternoon about hurricane season preparedness.

Meanwhile, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem earlier this week reiterated the administration's priority to shift FEMA's responsibilities to states.

• "Our goal is that states should manage their emergencies and we come in and support them," she said at Tuesday's meeting to reform FEMA, according to Reuters.
• President Trump — whose budget proposes more than $646 million in cuts to FEMA — has signed executive orders aimed at streamlining the federal disaster agency and shifting more responsibility to the states, Axios' Natalie Daher writes. Fully eliminating FEMA would require an act of Congress.
• Other staffing cuts and changes being made to NOAA and its agencies, including the NWS, are raising concerns about reduced forecasting abilities.

Between the lines: David Richardson, the current acting head of FEMA as of earlier this month, has no experience managing natural disasters and acknowledged in private meetings that the agency doesn't yet have a fully formed hurricane response plan, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• "As FEMA transforms to a smaller footprint, the intent for this hurricane season is not well understood," warned an internal review obtained by CNN last week. "Thus FEMA is not ready."
• Since that leak, FEMA appears to be taking steps to bolster its disaster response efforts, according to CNN.

Threat level: Louisiana, Texas and Florida could face the greatest financial burdens in a world with less federal relief assistance, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes, based on new analysis from the Carnegie Disaster Dollar Database.

• Louisiana residents also have received the most FEMA direct assistance since 2015, according to Carnegie.
• Louisiana's congressional delegation expressed concern earlier this month to Axios about the federal government's ability to respond to a large-scale disaster.

The intrigue: NOAA's leadership gave the forecast in Gretna, a suburb of New Orleans, in recognition of the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's devastation in the region.

How it works: Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1, but storms can form any time.

• NHC began its daily tropical outlook May 15, and so far all has been quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic.
• Historically, the most active period for strong storms in the Gulf and the Atlantic is August and September.

What's next: Authorities urge residents to prepare now for the season by gathering emergency supplies, preparing their home for storms and making an evacuation plan.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.

Go deeper:

• These states would suffer the most without FEMA
• Trump's FEMA risks "flying blind" into hurricane season
• Contraflow is dying as a New Orleans hurricane evacuation option

The Supreme Court issued a stay Thursday allowing President Trump's removal of two independent agency heads to remain in force for now — but suggested Federal Reserve officials have special protection based on the central bank's unique structure.

Why it matters: The ruling suggests that the court will ultimately vest the president with significant authority to remove the heads of agencies, even when Congress has structured them to be insulated from politics.

• But the decision's carve-out for the Fed will come as a significant relief to markets that were concerned about the central bank's independence.

Catch up quick: The court issued a stay Thursday night in a case involving Trump's move to fire members of the National Labor Relations Board and Merit Systems Protection Board.

• "The stay reflects our judgment that the Government is likely to show that both the NLRB and MSPB exercise considerable executive power," and that therefore it is within the executive authority of the president to remove them, the court's majority wrote.
• But is is not a final decision. The question of whether the NLRB and MSPB appointments fall under certain exceptions "is better left for resolution after full briefing and argument."
• The order was unsigned, and the three liberal justices dissented, arguing that a stay should be granted.

The intrigue: In issuing the stay, the majority noted a claim by the fired members that their case could have implications for the president's ability to remove members of the Fed's Board of Governors or Open Market Committee.

What they're saying: "We disagree. The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States," the majority wrote.

Yes, but: A dissent by Justice Elena Kagan seemed impatient with the logic of the Fed carve-out.

• "The majority closes today's order by stating, out of the blue, that it has no bearing on" removal of Fed officials.
• "I am glad to hear it," Kagan writes, "and do not doubt the majority's intention to avoid imperiling the Fed."
• "But then, today's order poses a puzzle. For the Federal Reserve's independence rests on the same constitutional and analytic foundations as that of the NLRB, MSPB, FTC, FCC, and so on—which is to say it rests largely on" Humphrey's Executor, a 1935 case establishing the constitutionality of independent agencies.

Between the lines: From the moment Trump started removing agency commissioners earlier this year, analysts predicted the ultimate target might be more control over the Fed.

• But some hoped past court comments about the central bank as a unique entity might insulate it from such action.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

The Republican-led House Oversight Committee on Thursday took its first step in its new investigation of the White House's handling of former President Biden's health: Demanding testimony from his doctor and his top advisors.

Why it matters: The probe comes amid a renewed focus on Biden's age and fitness for office after his cancer diagnosis and the release of "Original Sin," a new book by Alex Thompson and Jake Tapper.

• Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) said Wednesday he will launch a parallel investigation into Biden's health, Axios' Stef Kight first reported.

Driving the news: House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-Ky.) sent letters to Biden's personal physician, Kevin O'Connor, and former White House officials Neera Tanden, Anthony Bernal, Annie Tomasini and Ashley Williams seeking testimony.

• In the letter to O'Connor, Comer cited his February 2024 assessment that Biden was "robust" and "fit to successfully execute the duties of the Presidency," as well as Axios reporting about Biden's cognitive struggles.
• "The Committee seeks information to ensure accurate information was provided to the American people and your health reports were not subject to any improper influence," Comer wrote.
• In letters to aides, Comer questioned "who made key decisions and exercised the powers of the executive branch during the Biden Administration."

Between the lines: Republicans have tried to make Biden's age a fruitful area of inquiry since 2023, but they see the flurry of events around Biden in recent weeks as providing a new opening.

• Comer previously sought testimony from Bernal, Tomasini and Williams in October 2023, though his requests to O'Connor and Tanden, the former director of Biden's Domestic Policy Council, are new.
• Comer also fought for the release of the audio of Special Counsel Robert Hur's interview with Biden after the publication of his report last year.

What to watch: Comer said he is seeking responses by May 29 and testimony scheduled between June 2 and 25.

• A spokesperson for Biden declined to comment.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

Iran threatened on Thursday to move its nuclear material to undeclared sites to protect it from a potential Israeli military strike.

Why it matters: The threat, made in an official letter from Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to the UN secretary-general and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director-general, signal the risk of an unprecedented escalation in the Iranian nuclear crisis.

• The IAEA is currently able to access and monitor Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, which are stored in declared sites.
• If that material is moved, it will be much harder to know whether Iran is building a nuclear weapon or not.

Driving the news: The threat comes after CNN and Axios reported that Israel has been making preparations to swiftly strike Iran's nuclear sites if U.S.-Iran nuclear talks break down in the coming weeks.

• One source told Axios that Israel believes its operational window for a successful strike could close soon.

What they are saying: "Under conditions wherein threats made by the Zionist fanatics persist, the Islamic Republic of Iran shall be left with no recourse but to implement special measures for the protection of its nuclear facilities and materials, the relevant particulars of which shall thereafter be communicated to the IAEA," Araghchi wrote.

Driving the news: Araghchi and White House envoy Steve Witkoff will hold a fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome on Friday, with Oman's foreign minister mediating.

• The negotiations have hit a roadblock over the fact that Iran says it will only sign a deal that allows a domestic enrichment capability, and the U.S. has said enrichment is its red line.
• Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and the director of Israel's Mossad spy agency David Barnea will meet Witkoff in Rome on Friday on the sidelines of the nuclear talks, two Israeli officials said.
• The officials said Dermer and Barnea are traveling to Rome to coordinate positions with Witkoff and be briefed immediataely after the talks.

State of play: The Israeli intelligence community has shifted just in the past few days from believing a nuclear deal was close to thinking talks could soon break down, Israeli sources say.

• Hence the urgency behind Israel's preparations to strike fast if President Trump gives a green light.
• A U.S. official told Axios the Trump administration is concerned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might make his move even without approval from Trump.
• Trump spoke to Netanyahu on Thursday and they "agreed on the need to ensure that Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons," per the Israeli readout.

The other side: Araghchi wrote in his letter that Iran "will take all necessary measures to protect and defend its citizens, interests, and facilities against any terrorist or sabotage actions."

• "Iran strongly warns against any adventurism by the Israeli Zionist regime and will respond decisively to any threats or unlawful actions by this regime. We also believe that if any attack is carried out against the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the Israeli regime, the U.S. government will be complicit and bear legal responsibility," the Iranian foreign minister wrote.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that if he does not "make a serious proposal for an immediate ceasefire" with Ukraine, the Senate will pass new sanctions against the Russian government.

Why it matters: Thune (R-S.D.) is increasing pressure on Putin by signaling the Senate is willing to act on a bipartisan bill that would authorize new Russian sanctions and tariffs.

• "If Russia is not willing to engage in serious diplomacy, the Senate will work with the Trump administration to consider additional sanctions to force Putin to start negotiating," Thune said Thursday.
• This comes the same week Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned senators in a hearing that if "you start threatening sanctions, the Russians will stop talking."
• "I think it's a next week horizon," Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) told Axios about the timing of a sanctions bill. "We need to make it very clear to Vladimir Putin that we're going to increase the pressure on Russia to get them to the table to resolve the war in Ukraine.

Zoom in: Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) have a bill, with 80 cosponsors, that would hit Russia with more economic sanctions if Putin refuses good faith negotiations with Ukraine or launches another attack after any peace deal is reached.

• The bill also would set a 500% tariff on goods imported from countries that buy Russian oil.

Zoom out: Thune has previously indicating he was ready to move, but would wait for the signal from the White House.

• Some Republican senators have been urging more immediate action against Putin.
• "I've waited long enough," Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) told Semafor's Burgess Everett, adding, "And it's pretty clear to me that Putin has been jerking us around for months."

President Trump's Make America Healthy Again Commission blamed factors including bad diets, chemical exposure and unnecessary medication for causing childhood chronic illness in a highly anticipated report released Thursday.

Why it matters: The 68-page document from a panel led by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seeks to lay out a unifying theory around what's causing conditions like obesity, autoimmune conditions and behavioral disorders in kids.

• But it was developed in little more than three months and seeks to strike a balance between protecting consumers and promoting economic interests, especially when it comes to pesticides and chemicals commonly used in agriculture.
• "This is not, in any way, an attack on the American farmers or industry," NIH director Jay Bhattacharya, a member of the commission, told reporters Thursday. "What this is is a commitment to get excellent answers, excellent science, so that we can enable people to do the right thing."

The big picture: As with Kennedy's broader health care philosophy, the report blends mainstream ideas with highly controversial elements, including doubts about the current childhood vaccine schedule.

Here are the key takeaways:

1. Ultra-processed foods. The commission, in the first and longest section, acknowledges that popular snacks and beverages save Americans time and money, but cites research that suggests ultra-processed foods are linked to chronic diseases and says children need more "whole foods."

• "I think everybody wants to prioritize the ultra-processed food crisis and try to reduce our reliance on ultra-processed foods and try to improve the quality of the food," Kennedy said on Thursday.

2. Chemical exposures. Potential toxins in the environment are a big concern, but the Trump administration is treading lightly.

• Farm groups worried ahead of the report's release that it would target pesticides like glyphosate, which are widely used in agriculture.
• "American farmers rely on these products, and actions that further regulate or restrict crop protection tools beyond risk-based and scientific processes set forth by Congress must involve thoughtful consideration of what is necessary for adequate protection, alternatives, and cost of production," the report states.

3. More "gold-standard science." The report also portrays research on chemical exposure and chronic disease as a necessary competitive advantage for the U.S.

• Understanding potential links between chemical exposure and chronic illness "cannot happen through a European regulatory system that stifles growth," the report says. Rather, it should happen through science done by the federal government and "through unleashing private sector innovation."

4. Overuse of medicine. The commission calls out kids' "overmedicalization" — and continues to cast doubt on childhood vaccines.

• It cites a 1,400% increase in antidepressant prescriptions for American adolescents between 1987 and 2014, as well as increased prescribing of stimulants, antibiotics and asthma drugs.
• Long-term research on the impact of commonly used drugs for kids is limited, but there are "contributory human data that raise important questions" about antidepressants, stimulants and other treatments, the report says.
• The commission also questions the current U.S. childhood vaccine protocol and says vaccines would benefit from "more rigorous clinical trial designs." Vaccines are already studied in large trials and subject to ongoing safety surveillance.

5. Corporate influence. The role of corporate interests features prominently in the report, despite assurances that it's not anti-industry.

• Misaligned incentives in federal regulations and significant scientific funding from food, pharmaceutical, tech and chemical companies contribute to the rise of chronic disease, the report claims.

Zoom in: The secretaries of agriculture, education and housing, as well as the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal officials, sit on the 14-member commission.

• White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller is a member, along with Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, who co-authored the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025.

What's next: The commission now has about 80 days to create a strategy for how the federal government should respond, per Trump's original February order.

• Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said that updated dietary guidelines will likely be released before this fall.
• "What you're going to see is a whole new day on dietary guidelines where federal nutrition advice will be sound. It will be simple, and it will be clear," Rollins said.

Around the world, investors are sending a clear-as-glass signal: After years of profligate debt issuance, the world's major economies are now facing the bill.

The big picture: A sell-off in bond markets over recent weeks is signaling that the long-term trajectory for interest rates is higher than it has been in decades. The drop in long-term bond prices means a rise in the interest rates governments must pay to borrow money.

• The anticipated multitrillion-dollar widening of U.S. deficits due to the tax cut and spending legislation that passed the House early Thursday morning is part of the story, as is the Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating last week.
• But it's really a bigger, global phenomenon — suggesting a step-shift in what savers demand to tie up their money in the long term across major advanced economies.

Driving the news: The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield touched 5.13% at one point Thursday morning, the highest since 2007. On Wednesday, an auction of 20-year bonds showed surprisingly soft demand.

• In Japan, with the highest ratio on Earth of debt to the size of its economy, long-term bond yields have hit new all-time highs this week. The nation's 40-year bonds were yielding 3.69% Thursday, up more than a percentage point from early April.
• Long-term rates in the U.K., Canada and Europe have similarly marched upward, if less dramatically.

State of play: Moves in shorter-term bonds have been more modest, meaning what has changed is not investors' near-term expectations for the economy, inflation, and monetary policy, but rather the riskiness of locking their money in at low rates.

• In general, a steeper yield curve — higher long-term rates than short-term rates — implies a stronger growth outlook. But there are reasons to think something else is afoot.
• In a volatile world economy — one in which globalization marches backward or other negative supply shocks arrive — central banks might need to crank rates higher in the coming decades to keep inflation from taking off.
• Moreover, investors worry there will be more government debt issuance in the coming decades than savings to absorb that debt.

What they're saying: "This rise has taken place not for virtuous reasons around faster growth but rather because of risks around higher inflation and the need for higher interest rates to compensate for holding long-dated dollar-denominated assets," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, in a note.

• "The risks and opportunities around holding such debt are part of the explanation," he added. "A structural change is taking place in the market, forcing a general repricing of risk."

The long-term bond sell-off has serious implications for both ordinary American borrowers and the nation's long-term fiscal picture.

Zoom out: Because rates on Treasury securities form the bedrock costs for all other forms of borrowing, these higher costs will eventually show up in the form of more expensive mortgages and car loans.

• The good news is that those forms of lending are anchored to shorter-duration rates. Even if you take out a 30-year mortgage, for example, lenders know it will likely be paid off long before that as you move or refinance.
• And shorter-duration rates aren't up much.

Yes, but: If bond investors are correct about the long-term trajectory of rates, there will be higher borrowing costs and more lending activity crowded out by the government in the years and decades ahead.

Zoom in: If the higher long-term rates hold, it implies meaningfully higher debt service costs for the U.S. government's existing debt pile. That could squeeze the government's ability to pay for other priorities, whether national defense or maintaining the social safety net.

The bottom line: "Everybody I have talked to in financial markets, they are staring at the [big, beautiful] bill and they thought it was going to be much more in terms of fiscal restraint," Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said Thursday morning on Fox Business.

• "The markets are looking for a little more fiscal discipline," Waller said. "They are concerned."

A federal judge on Thursday blocked the Trump administration from dismantling the Department of Education while a lawsuit challenging the move proceeds.

Why it matters: The judge's preliminary injunction said that President Trump and Education Secretary Linda McMahon don't have the power to shutter the agency — and that its closure runs contrary to federal laws.

• U.S. District Judge Myong J. Joun of Massachusetts also ordered the administration to reinstate the jobs of terminated Education Department employees.
• "Defendants have not pointed to any case that indicates that the Secretary's effective dismantling of the Department is within her reorganization powers," Joun wrote.
• The Trump administration will challenge Joun's ruling "on an emergency basis," Education Department spokesperson Madi Biedermann said in a statement.

Zoom in: The judge said the administration didn't provide research to support why certain employees were terminated, why certain offices were reduced or eliminated, or how those changes further the "purported goals of efficiency or effectiveness of the Department."

• He added that students with disabilities would be particularly harmed by reductions at the agency.

The other side: "President Trump and the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education clearly have the authority to make decisions about agency reorganization efforts, not an unelected Judge with a political axe to grind," Biedermann said.

• She said Joun "dramatically overstepped his authority."

Catch up quick: Trump in March signed an executive order to dismantle the Education Department, but shuttering a federal department requires congressional action.

• Also in March, nearly 50% of the department's workforce was slashed.

Go deeper: Education Department cuts threaten to deepen local schools' woes

Editor's note: This story has been updated with details throughout and an Education Department statement.

The upper bound of "middle class" in America is often pegged at an annual income of between $150,000 and $250,000, but looking at legislation being drawn up by Republicans in Congress, it seems to be much, much higher.

Why it matters: Some of the proposals for the forthcoming budget raise income cutoff levels to as high as $2.5 million per year.

Driving the news: The House is considering allowing state and local tax deductions of as much as $40,000 for people making up to $500,000, Axios' Hans Nichols reported this week, a sign that some blue-state Republicans consider $500,000 to be a middle-class income.

Between the lines: President Trump considers an annual income of $1 million too modest to justify higher income taxes, per Nichols, but is fine with the idea once household income reaches $2.5 million.

• The current incarnation of the bill also raises the level at which the estate tax starts being levied from $15 million to $30 million.

Where it stands: To be in the top 10% of individual earners, a U.S. worker has to earn $2,905 per week, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is $150,000 per year.

• To be in the top 10% of households in 2024, you had to earn $235,000.
• The middle class tops out at $169,800 for a family of three in 2022 dollars, which is $188,400 in 2025 dollars, according to Pew Research Center.

How it works: Some government policies only apply to people making less than a certain amount, on the grounds that the rich are already comfortable enough not to need any extra help from Uncle Sam.

• Looking at where that line gets drawn provides an indicator of where the upper middle class ends and the upper class begins, at least in the eyes of Congress.

Flashback: Trump, in his first term, sent out stimulus checks to those making $198,000 per year or less for married households filing jointly. People earning more than that amount were considered rich enough not to need the checks.

• Conversely, the net investment income tax — a tax on the rich — kicks in only once a married couple filing jointly makes over $250,000 per year.
• For President Biden, $400,000 was the key number, the level below which he said he would never raise taxes, and above which he wanted a new tax to help pay for Medicare.

The bottom line: Now that home values and retirement balances regularly make their way into seven-figure territory, we've solidly entered a world of middle-class millionaires.