President-elect Trump on Tuesday promised to create an "External Revenue Service" to oversee tariffs and other potential foreign revenue.
Why it matters: It's yet another sign Trump is serious about his promised widespread tariff program, despite recent reports it might be pulled back.
Driving the news: In a Truth Social post, Trump blasted the country's existing trade agreements and its reliance on income taxes for revenue.
"I am today announcing that I will create the EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE to collect our Tariffs, Duties, and all Revenue that come from Foreign sources. We will begin charging those that make money off of us with Trade, and they will start paying, FINALLY, their fair share," he posted.
He said Jan. 20, his inauguration day, would be the "birth date" of the ERS.
Between the lines: Customs and Border Protection currently collects tariffs at points of entry. It's unclear if Trump intends to create a new government entity to replace CBP.
The Trump transition team did not immediately return requests for comment.
The intrigue: Though Trump insists foreign countries pay when the U.S. levies tariffs, in fact importers pay the tariffs when they bring goods in.
Economists fear massive, negative market reactions if Trump follows through with threats to impose broad, heavy tariffs on U.S. trading partners.
The New Year's Day attack injured 57 people, the FBI said Tuesday, increasing its latest count from 35.
The latest: The suspect's internet history, the FBI said in its update, also revealed that he had researched Mardi Gras, how to get onto a Bourbon Street balcony and reviewed details about recent New Orleans shootings.
Between the lines: Investigators have not updated the number of people killed in the attack — 14 innocent victims, plus the suspect, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, who died in a shootout with New Orleans police.
The FBI counted 136 total victims, including two damaged businesses.
Zoom in: The FBI, which is leading the criminal investigation into the vehicle attack, revealed additional details about Jabbar's motivations in its Tuesday update.
"Jabbar became a more devout Muslim in 2022," the FBI said. "During this time, Jabbar began isolating himself from society. Around the spring of 2024, Jabbar began following extremist views."
Previous FBI revelations had uncovered some of Jabbar's travels, including trips to New Orleans where he appeared to be scouting the French Quarter around Halloween.
Tuesday's update filled in some gaps on a one-day trip a short time later, on Nov. 10, 2024.
On that trip, the FBI says, Jabbar took a train from Houston to New Orleans, returning that night on a bus.
But while Jabbar was in the city, he looked at an Orleans Street apartment that was for rent. Some days later, he applied for the apartment, but later told the landlord he'd changed his mind, the FBI says.
Jabbar's web history also revealed that, hours before he used a rented truck to drive through a crowded Bourbon Street in New Orleans, he searched for information about the car used in a similar attack 10 days previously at a German Christmas market.
President-elect Trump engaged in an "unprecedented criminal effort" to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Special Counsel Jack Smith alleged in the final report of his investigation into Trump's election subversion case.
Why it matters: The report's release early Tuesday came despite Trump's legal efforts to block it, making the Justice Department's findings public less than a week before Trump's inauguration.
What they're saying: Trump lambasted the report in a Truth Social post Tuesday, claiming he was "totally innocent" and calling Smith a "lamebrain prosecutor who was unable to get his case tried before the Election."
State of play: Trump was indicted and charged with conspiracy to defraud the U.S. and other counts for his purported role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and the events leading up to it.
However, the case was dismissed in November following Trump's 2024 victory, in light of longstanding DOJ policy that a sitting president can't be prosecuted.
Here are the top takeaways from the 174-page report:
Conviction at trial
Smith remained convinced he could have convicted Trump for his alleged efforts to subvert to the 2020 election if the case had gone to trial.
A Justice Department policy prohibiting the prosecution of a sitting president doesn't change the "gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the Government's proof, or the merits of the prosecution," Smith wrote.
"But for Mr. Trump's election and imminent return to the Presidency, the Office assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial," he added.
Responsibility for Jan. 6
Smith drew a direct line from Trump's actions to the events of the Capitol riot.
After then-Vice President Pence refused to overturn the electoral college vote count in the Senate, Trump "took aim" at Pence, targeting him in his Jan. 6 rally speech and in a social media post.
"Taken together, these actions resulted in rioters at the Capitol on January 6 singling out Mr. Pence for their ire and chanting, 'Where is Pence? Bring Him Out!' and, 'Hang Mike Pence!'" the report said.
Trump's words also "inspired his supporters to commit acts of physical violence" by telling them to "fight like hell" against the purported election fraud.
Trauma of law enforcement officers
The report delved into the trauma experienced by law enforcement officers responding to the breach of the Capitol on Jan. 6.
140 law enforcement officers were assaulted during the Capitol riot and at least 123 rioters have so far been charged with using a deadly or dangerous weapon that day or causing serious bodily injury to a law enforcement officer, according to the report.
"This violence took a lasting toll," the report stated, noting that in addition to physical injuries many officers have experienced psychological trauma and depression as a result of the insurrection.
Prosecutorial independence
In a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland attached to the report, Smith pushed back against Trump's claims the investigation was corrupt.
"I want it to be clear that the ultimate decision to bring charges against Mr. Trump was mine," Smith wrote, adding that "nobody within the Department of Justice ever sought to interfere with, or improperly influence, my prosecutorial decision making."
Trump's claims thatSmith'sdecisions while leading the case were in any way "influenced or directed by" the Biden administration or other political actors is "laughable," Smith noted.
The big picture: After Trump chose the former Fox News host for the Cabinet post,Hegseth was besieged with scandals that threatened to tank his nomination before he ever faced questions from lawmakers.
Driving the news: In his opening statement, Hegseth vowed to "restore the warrior ethos" at the Pentagon.
"It is true that I don't have a similar biography to Defense Secretaries of the last 30 years," Hegseth said, before positioning himself as a "change agent."
"But, as President Trump also told me, we've repeatedly placed people atop the Pentagon with supposedly 'the right credentials' — whether they are retired generals, academics or defense contractor executives — and where has it gotten us?" Hegseth said in his opening statement.
A protester interrupted Hegseth's opening statement to call him a misogynist. That protester was one of several removed from the hearing.
Before Hegeth spoke to the committee, Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) decried the "anonymous sources" behind the allegations that have hounded Hegseth, contrasting them with public pronouncements of support from his colleagues for the Defense nominee.
Committee ranking member Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said he doesn't believe Hegseth is "qualified to meet the overwhelming demands of this job," citing the "extremely alarming" allegations and some of Hegseth's views, including on women serving in the military.
Zoom in: Asked about the various allegations that have clouded his nomination, Hegseth repeated his claim that he had been the target of a "smear campaign."
Reed implored the committee to release the FBI's background check be made available all members of the committee, but Wicker rebuffed his request.
Questioned by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) about his previous derisive comments about women serving in combat roles, Hegseth maintained that he appreciated women's contributions to the military.
"It's not about the capabilities of men and women. It's about standards," he said.
Hegseth refused to rule out carrying out an order from Trump to take over Greenland or the Panama Canal — notions the president-elect has floated in recent weeks — when quizzed by Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii).
State of play: Hegseth faced pointed questions from lawmakers over his fitness to lead the military and the misconduct allegations.
Data: eMarketer; Note: "Other social" include Snapchat, Linkedin, Pinterest, Reddit and X. "Other channels" include display, search and retail ads. "Connected TV" does not include YouTube; Chart: Axios Visuals
Meta and Google are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of a U.S. TikTok ban financially, according to a new analysis from eMarketer.
Why it matters: The growth of TikTok and retail giant Amazon has put real competitive pressure on Google and Meta, which for years haveowned more than half of the U.S. advertising business.
Zoom in: If TikTok is banned, more than half of the ad dollars spent on the platform in the U.S. would go to Meta and Google-owned properties, eMarketer projects.
Instagram and Facebook would take 22.% and 17.1% of TikTok's reallocated ad spend, respectively. Google's YouTube would take roughly 10.7%.
Other social media platforms would also stand to benefit. Snapchat, Linkedin, Pinterest, Reddit and X would collectively take roughly 18.3% of reallocated TikTok ad spend. Some of those platforms have already begun to restructure their apps around their own TikTok-like short video products.
Connected TV companies, or streamers, and other digital media companies across social, search and retail advertising would collect roughly 30% of reallocated ad dollars.
Zoom out: Companies like Meta and Google have invested heavily in their TikTok rival products, Reels and Shorts, positioning them well to take advantage of a possible ban.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told investors last year that Reels alone makes up more than 50% of user time spent on Instagram.
Google said last year that over 2 billion logged-in monthly users are watching YouTube Shorts.
Of note: eMarketer expects that advertising dollars will get reallocated immediately after a ban, as marketers have had many months to figure out alternative plans.
What to watch: For now, the ban seems likely, and the Supreme Court's arguments Friday led court watchers to expect it will uphold the ban law.
China has indicated for months that it wouldn't let ByteDance sell TikTok to a U.S. company to skirt a ban.
Yes, but: A Bloomberg report out Monday suggests Chinese officials are eyeing a possible deal to sell TikTok to Elon Musk.
If that were the case, Musk and X would likely stand to benefit enormously from the entire saga.
The Department of Justice's final report on President-elect Trump's dismissed federal election subversion case was published early Tuesday, revealing new details of special counsel Jack Smith's investigation.
Why it matters: Smith claims in the report less than two weeks from Trump's inauguration that he could have secured a conviction if the Republican leader hadn't won November's election and the case had gone to trial.
Trump wanted the final report kept secret, but Attorney General Merrick Garland defied the president-elect in one of his final acts in the Biden administration and sent the 137-page document to Congress.
Zoom out: The release of volume one of Smith's final report follows a lengthy legal battle after Trump's lawyers sought to stop it being made public.
Volume two of Smith's report, on Trump's federal classified documents case, remains sealed after U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon barred the DOJ from releasing a final investigative report or any drafts.
Cannon, whom Trump appointed when he was in office, has been accused of bias in her handling of the case.
However, on Monday she ordered a hearing later this week on whether to release the second part of the report.
Flashback: Smith's original Jan. 6 indictment charged Trump with four counts, including "conspiracy to defraud" the U.S.
It was unsealed in 2023, less than two months after Smith first brought charges against the president-elect over his alleged mishandling of classified documents.
Last August, Smith filed a superseding indictment in the Jan. 6 case, paring down the original findings to account for the Supreme Court's July ruling that presidents have immunity for "official acts."
But after Trump won the 2024 election, Smith moved to drop his two federal cases against Trump, noting the longstanding DOJ policy that a sitting president can't be prosecuted.
Pete Hegseth, President-elect Trump's controversial pick for secretary of Defense, will have his confirmation hearing Tuesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Why it matters: The former Fox News host and Army combat veteran likely faces a tough hearing due to allegations against him ranging from sexual assault to excessive drinking. Axios has obtained a prepared text of his opening statement.
Read the statement in full:
Thank you Chairman Wicker, Ranking Member Reed, and all members of this Committee for the opportunity today. I am grateful for, and learned a great deal from, this "advise and consent" process. Should I be confirmed, I look forward to working with this Committee — Senators from both parties — to secure our nation.
I want to thank the former Senator from Minnesota, Norm Coleman, for his mentorship and friendship in this process. And the incoming National Security Advisor, Congressman — and more importantly—Colonel Mike Waltz, for his powerful words. I am grateful for you both.
Thank you to my incredible wife Jennifer, who has changed my life and been with me throughout this entire process. I love you, sweetheart, and I thank God for you. And as Jenny and I pray together each morning, all glory — regardless of the outcome — belongs to our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. His grace and mercy abound each day. May His will be done.
Thank you to my father, Brian, and mother, Penny, as well as my entire family — including our seven wonderful kids: Gunner, Jackson, Peter Boone, Kenzie, Luke, Rex & Gwendolyn. Their future safety and security is in all our hands.
And to all the troops and veterans watching, and in this room — Navy SEALs, Green Berets, Pilots, Sailors, Marines, Gold Stars and more. Too many friends to name. Officers and Enlisted. Black and White. Young and Old. Men and Women. All Americans. All warriors. This hearing is for you. Thank you for figuratively, and literally, having my back. I pledge to do the same for you. All of you.
It is an honor to come before this Committee as President Donald Trump's nominee for the office of Secretary of Defense. Two months ago, 77 million Americans gave President Trump a powerful mandate for change. To put America First — at home and abroad.
I want to thank President Trump for his faith in me, and his selfless leadership of our great Republic. The troops could have no better Commander-in-Chief than Donald Trump.
As I've said to many of you in our private meetings, when President Trump chose me for this position, the primary charge he gave me was — to bring the warrior culture back to the Department of Defense. He, like me, wants a Pentagon laser-focused on warfighting, lethality, meritocracy, standards, and readiness. That's it. That is my job.
To that end, if confirmed, I'm going to work with President Trump — and this committee — to:
Restore the Warrior Ethos to the Pentagon and throughout our fighting force; in doing so, we will reestablish trust in our military — and address the recruiting, retention and readiness crisis in our ranks. The strength of our military is our unity — our shared purpose — not our differences.
Rebuild our Military, always matching threats to capabilities; this includes reviving our defense industrial base, reforming the acquisition process (no more "Valley of Death" for new defense companies), modernizing our nuclear triad, ensuring the Pentagon can pass an audit, and rapidly fielding emerging technologies.
Reestablish Deterrence. First and foremost, we will defend our homeland — our borders and our skies. Second, we will work with our partners and allies to deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific from the communist Chinese. Finally, we will responsibly end wars to ensure we can prioritize our resources — and reorient to larger threats. We can no longer count on "reputational deterrence" — we need real deterrence.
The Defense Department under Donald Trump will achieve Peace Through Strength. And in pursuing these America First national security goals, we will remain patriotically a-political and stridently Constitutional. Unlike the current administration, politics should play no part in military matters. We are not Republicans or Democrats — we are American warriors. Our standards will be high, and they will be equal (not equitable, that is a very different word).
We need to make sure every warrior is fully qualified on their assigned weapon system, every pilot is fully qualified and current on the aircraft they are flying, and every general or flag officer is selected for leadership based purely on performance, readiness, and merit.
Leaders — at all levels — will be held accountable. And warfighting and lethality — and the readiness of the troops and their families — will be our only focus.
That has been my focus ever since I first put on the uniform as a young Army ROTC cadet at Princeton University in 2001. I joined the military because I love my country and felt an obligation to defend it. I served with incredible Americans in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, Afghanistan and in the streets of Washington, D.C. — many of which are here today. This includes enlisted soldiers I helped become American citizens, and Muslim allies I helped immigrate from Iraq and Afghanistan. And when I took off the uniform, my mission never stopped.
It is true that I don't have a similar biography to Defense Secretaries of the last 30 years. But, as President Trump also told me, we've repeatedly placed people atop the Pentagon with supposedly "the right credentials" — whether they are retired generals, academics, or defense contractor executives — and where has it gotten us? He believes, and I humbly agree, that it's time to give someone with dust on his boots the helm. A change agent. Someone with no vested interest in certain companies or specific programs or approved narratives.
My only special interest is — the warfighter. Deterring wars, and if called upon, winning wars — by ensuring our warriors never enter a fair fight. We let them win and then bring them home. Like many of my generation, I've been there. I've led troops in combat…been on patrol for days … pulled a trigger downrange … heard bullets whiz by … flex-cuffed insurgents … called in close air support … led medevacs … dodged IEDs … pulled out dead bodies … and knelt before a battlefield cross. This is not academic for me; this is my life. I led then, and I will lead now.
Ask anyone who has ever worked with me — or for me. I know what I don't know. My success as a leader … and I very much look forward to discussing our many successes at my previous organizations, Vets for Freedom and Concerned Veterans for America. I'm incredibly proud of the work we did. My success as a leader … has always been setting a clear vision, hiring people smarter and more capable than me, empowering them to succeed, holding everyone accountable, and driving toward clear metrics. Build the plan. Work the plan. And then work harder than everyone around you.
The President has given me a clear vision, and I will execute. I've sworn an oath to the Constitution before, and — if confirmed — will proudly do it again. This time, for the most important deployment of my life.
I pledge to be a faithful partner to this committee. Taking input and respecting oversight. We share the same goals: a ready, lethal military; the health and well-being of our troops; and a strong and secure America.
Thank you for your time, and I look forward to your questions.
Pete Hegseth admits he's an unorthodox pick to lead the Pentagon — but says it's "time to give someone with dust on his boots the helm," according to his opening statement, obtained by Axios, for his confirmation hearing Tuesday.
Hegseth, one of President-elect Trump's most controversial Cabinet choices, plans to tell the Senate Armed Services Committee that he'll "[r]estore the warrior ethos to the Pentagon," give "new defense companies" a better chance to win contracts, and rapidly deploy emerging technologies.
So Hegseth, who calls his selection for Defense secretary "the most important deployment of my life," can expect a grueling hearing: Republicans tell us they expect Democratic senators will try to embarrass him and Trump.
The hearing room will be jammed with supporters from all phases of Hegseth's life.
The big picture: The opening statement doesn't directly address the allegations. Hegseth says in his testimony: "It is true that I don't have a similar biography to Defense secretaries of the last 30 years."
"But, as President Trump also told me, we've repeatedly placed people atop the Pentagon with supposedly 'the right credentials' — whether they are retired generals, academics or defense contractor executives — and where has it gotten us?"
"He believes, and I humbly agree, that it's time to give someone with dust on his boots the helm. A change agent. Someone with no vested interest in certain companies or specific programs or approved narratives."
Hegseth says his "only special interest is — the warfighter."
The backstory: Hegseth is "not pretending to be a standard issue SECDEF and wears that as a badge of honor," a source familiar with his thinking tells Axios.
"The standard-issue SECDEFs have degraded our readiness, our lethality and our ability to win wars. There's never been a singular focus on the warfighter, and that's why we're losing wars and deterrence capabilities."
Zoom in: Hegseth, a fierce DEI opponent, bluntly opposed women serving in combat roles in the military. But he softened that view during meetings with senators, saying he supports "all women serving in our military today."
Hegseth also has suggested that Gen. Charles Q. Brown, the first Black chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, should be fired over the Pentagon's efforts to diversify its ranks.
Brown and outgoing Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, a decorated four-star general who also is Black, have rebuked the notion that the Pentagon has undermined its combat readiness with its focus on diversity.
"[W]e are American warriors," Hegseth says in his opening statement. "Our standards will be high, and they will be equal (not equitable, that is a very different word)," he continues.
"We need to make sure every warrior is fully qualified on their assigned weapon system, every pilot is fully qualified and current on the aircraft they are flying, and every general or flag officer is selected for leadership based purely on performance, readiness and merit."
Zoom out: Hegseth strikes an uncharacteristically humble, bipartisan tone in his opener, saying he looks "forward to working with this committee — senators from both parties — to secure our nation."
Hegseth — who became famous among conservatives as a "Fox & Friends Weekend" host, and is a bestselling author — is an Army veteran of Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay, and earned two Bronze Stars and a Combat Infantryman's Badge.
Between the lines: Hegseth, who's been married three times, portrays himself as a family man and devout Christian. He acknowledged in an interview with Megyn Kelly that he was a "serial cheater" before he found Christ.
"Thank you to my incredible wife Jennifer, who has changed my life and been with me throughout this entire process," his testimony says. "I love you, sweetheart, and I thank God for you. And as Jenny and I pray together each morning, all glory — regardless of the outcome — belongs to our Lord and savior Jesus Christ. His grace and mercy abound each day. May His will be done."
Naming his "seven wonderful kids, Hegseth adds: "Their future safety and security is in all our hands."
Hegseth emphasizes his popularity with many in uniform, saluting "all the troops and veterans watching, and in this room — Navy SEALs, Green Berets, pilots, sailors, Marines, Gold Stars and more. Too many friends to name. Officers and enlisted. Black and white. Young and old. Men and women. All Americans. All warriors."
"This hearing is for you," he says. "Thank you for figuratively, and literally, having my back. I pledge to do the same for you. All of you."
"Restore the warrior ethos to the Pentagon and throughout our fighting force; in doing so, we will reestablish trust in our military — and address the recruiting, retention and readiness crisis in our ranks. The strength of our military is our unity — our shared purpose — not our differences."
"Rebuild our military, always matching threats to capabilities; this includes reviving our defense industrial base, reforming the acquisition process (no more 'Valley of Death' for new defense companies), modernizing our nuclear triad ... and rapidly fielding emerging technologies."
"Reestablish deterrence. First and foremost, we will defend our homeland ... Second, we will work with our partners and allies to deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific from the communist Chinese. Finally, we will responsibly end wars to ensure we can prioritize our resources — and reorient to larger threats. We can no longer count on 'reputational deterrence' — we need real deterrence."
In a dig at the Biden administration, Hegseth vows that the Defense Department under Trump "will achieve peace through strength" and "will remain patriotically apolitical and stridently constitutional. Unlike the current administration."
"Leaders — at all levels — will be held accountable. And warfighting and lethality — and the readiness of the troops and their families — will be our only focus."
"That has been my focus ever since I first put on the uniform as a young Army ROTC cadet at Princeton University in 2001," Hegseth adds. "I served with incredible Americans in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, Afghanistan and in the streets of Washington, D.C."
"This includes enlisted soldiers I helped become American citizens, and Muslim allies I helped immigrate from Iraq and Afghanistan. And when I took off the uniform, my mission never stopped."
Note: Compares President-elect Trump's selections for top Cabinet positions, which still have to go through a confirmation process, to seated Cabinet members for past presidents. Data: Axios research; Chart: Axios Visuals
Donald Trump is about to become the oldest person ever sworn in as president — but he hopes to have the youngest group of top Cabinet officials and advisers of any president in more than three decades.
Why it matters: Even as he's sought to regain his grip on power, the once and future president has tried to build the next generation of his MAGA movement, as seen in his choice of JD Vance, 40, as his vice president.
Driving the news: The average age of Trump's picks for VP, chief of staff, attorney general and secretaries of State, Treasury and Defense is 54.1 — the youngest since the start of George H.W. Bush's presidency in 1989, an Axios analysis found.
The elder Bush — who was 64 when he took the oath of office — had a top staff with an average age of 51.5, the youngest in nearly half a century.
Like Trump, Bush also picked a considerably younger VP: Dan Quayle, then 41.
Between the lines: The Cabinet Trump envisions is an average of five years younger than his Cabinet at the start of his first term in 2017.
Vance will be the third-youngest VP in U.S. history.
If confirmed, Pete Hegseth, 44, would be the youngest Defense secretary since Donald Rumsfeld during the Ford administration. Rumsfeld served at 43.
Outside of the core Cabinet positions, Trump chose Elise Stefanik, 40, and Tulsi Gabbard, 43, for top government roles.
Vivek Ramaswamy, 39, will also have a strong voice within the next administration as co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency along with Elon Musk, 53.
Zoom in: Trump's chief of staff, Florida politics veteran Susie Wiles, is slightly older than most recent chiefs of staff at 67.
But Trump has filled other key White House positions with a crop of young advisers.
Stephen Miller, 39, will be deputy chief of staff for policy.
Karoline Leavitt, 27, is poised to be the youngest White House press secretary in history.
Zoom out: Age was a central theme of the 2024 campaign, with voters having deep concerns about President Biden's ability to start a four-year term at 82.
Biden's disastrous debate performance in June led to Vice President Harris, 60, replacing him at the top of the Democratic ticket.
The bottom line: Trump has broken the mold with many of his top Cabinet picks, often elevating loyalists who don't have significant relevant experience for their new roles.
Why it matters: Weather forecasters are struggling with how to communicate the dangers of extreme weather events as those events increase in frequency and ferocity with human-caused climate change.
This involves a mix of meteorology and climate science, along with social science research into how people respond to warning language and official advice.
The big picture: It's unclear if the public fully grasps the meaning of the National Weather Service's fire weather warnings or the criteria behind its terms, Stephen Bieda, chief of the service's Severe, Fire, Public and Winter Weather Services Branch, told Axios.
"There is a larger-scale conversation going on" about better aligning NWS' products with input from communications and social science professionals, he said.
Zoom in: There are some eerie similarities between the firestorm that began to engulf portions of LA County on Jan. 7 and recent hurricanes — such as Ian and Helene — that were accurately forecast but still led to a large loss of life.
In the case of Ian, some late shifts in the storm's path occurred, but it remained within the so-called "cone of uncertainty." Yet many were caught off guard when a storm surge roared across Sanibel Island and into Fort Myers Beach, killing dozens.
The fires began during a period when the National Weather Service was practically screaming about the fire threat from a rare high wind event in ALL CAPS text.
The consensus was that any fire start could grow "explosively" and be nearly impossible to contain even with the pre-staging of fire crews.
Sadly, four such fires occurred around the same time, overwhelming responders, many of whom had been prepositioned to act quickly.
Context: Red flag warnings were initially created for emergency managers and land management agencies in the 1990s, Bieda said.
Similarly, "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Red Flag warnings were implemented about five years ago — again primarily for the emergency management community to increase readiness rather than the public.
But, given the accessibility of information, those warnings are widely consumed, Bieda said.
He said their basic message is that forecasters have the highest-possible confidence that a worst-case combination of dry vegetation, or fuels, and strong winds will occur to produce a potentially devastating event.
Friction point: According to Amanda Stasiewicz, a researcher at the University of Oregon, and Stephanie Hoekstra, a wildfire social scientist at CIRA and NOAA, it's one thing to tell people to be prepared for potentially dire fire weather conditions.
But pinpointing fire ignitions ahead of time isn't currently possible — and they said that may limit forecasts' utility.
"You never know where the next fire is going to break out," Hoekstra told Axios. "Something that makes fires unique is that anywhere can be ground zero."
Both Stasiewicz and Hoekstra told Axios that so-called PDS Red Flag warnings are currently only used by some NWS forecast offices, including the LA office.
They're geared mainly to partners of the NWS such as emergency management agencies and elected officials at the state, regional and local levels.
Little research has been done on how they affect public preparation and response.
Between the lines: Social scientists who study responses to extreme weather watches and warnings — as well as evacuation orders — are limited by a lack of studies on wildfires, said Julie Demuth, who studies weather risks and decisions at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
"A major challenge we have with answering these questions is that we often don't have the social science 'observations' we need to answer these event-specific questions," she told Axios via email.
Even evidence gleaned from other fire-prone areas is relatively sparse, Demuth and other experts told Axios.
The intrigue: The NWS proactively anticipated the fire weather threat on Jan. 7, as well as the ongoing threat Tuesday through Wednesday.
The first briefing for emergency managers on the Jan. 7 fire danger took place on New Year's Day, a Weather Service spokesperson said.
The service's LA office began briefings the next day but had first mentioned the threat in its forecast products as early as Dec. 30.
Watches and warnings were hoisted beginning four days in advance of the event, NOAA's timeline states.
What's next: Its potential shortcomings aside, the Weather Service's most dire fire weather warning, the PDS Red Flag Warning, is in effect for parts of LA and Ventura Counties through Wednesday at noon.
Samsung topped the list of most U.S. patent grants for the third straight year, while Huawei and other Chinese companies saw a significant increase in patent awards in 2024, according to new data from IFI Claims.
Why it matters: Patents aren't a direct proxy for innovation, but they are an indicator of which companies are both investing in research and looking to protect their intellectual property.
By the numbers: Chipmaking powerhouse Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) supplanted Qualcomm for the No. 2 spot, with Apple rising three places to claim the No. 4 spot.
China's Huawei rose six places to No. 5 on the list, thanks to a 47% year-over-year increase in patents granted.
IBM, once the undisputed patent king, fell another four places to No. 8. The company announced several years ago that it would be more selective in its patent filings.
Overall, U.S. companies accounted for 56% of the U.S. patents granted, followed by those from Japan, China, South Korea and Germany. Applications by Chinese companies were up 32% from 2023.
"Despite all the market's attention on AI, we saw technologies like machine learning — which underpins artificial intelligence — slope downward," said IFI Claims CEO Ronald Kratz. "But we're not surprised by that. Those were the fast growers that preceded the present AI bonanza and have been on our list in the years leading up to it."
Between the lines: The overall number of patents granted, which had been declining for the past four years, rose 3.8% from calendar year 2023 to 324,043.
"It's good to see patent grants heading in the right direction again," Kratz said in a statement. "The USPTO has been hiring more examiners to deal with the accumulation, so it looks like that's having a positive effect."
Yes, but: The Patent Office still has a large and growing backlog of applications waiting to be examined. There were 813,000 unexamined applications as of 2024, up from 750,000 from the prior year and around 540,000 before COVID, per IFI.
President-elect Trump allegedly spread "demonstrably and, in many cases, obviously false" claims about his 2020 election loss in an effort to overturn results, Special Counsel Jack Smith alleged in the final report of his investigation, published early Tuesday.
Why it matters: The Justice Department closed its investigations in the face of Trump's November election win, but Smith maintains in the report he would have secured a conviction in the case if it had gone to trial.
Driving the news: The Department of Justice published Volume One of the report it's sending to Congress early Tuesday.
"The department's view that the Constitution prohibits the continued indictment and prosecution of a president is categorical and does not turn on the gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the government's proof or the merits of the prosecution, which the office stands fully behind," Smith wrote in the report first shared with NBC News.
"Indeed, but for Mr. Trump's election and imminent return to the presidency, the office assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial."
The other side: Trump responded to the release of volume one of the DOJ report by calling Smith a "lamebrain prosecutor who was unable to get his case tried before the election" in a post his Truth Social platform early Tuesday.
Zoom in: Smith in a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland accompanying the report defended his prosecution of Trump, who has repeatedly criticized the special counsel.
"The claim from Mr. Trump that my decisions as a prosecutor were influenced or directed by the Biden administration or other political actors is, in a word, laughable," Smith wrote.
"Mr. Trump's letter claims that dismissal of his criminal cases signifies Mr. Trump's 'complete exoneration.' That is false," Smith said, citing the Constitution as a reason for not proceeding.
However, Smith said this "does not turn on the gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the Government's proof, or the merits of the prosecution — all of which the Office stands fully behind."
The big picture: The report marks the end of a lengthy legal battleto hold Trump accountable for his purported role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and the events leading up to it, which occurred while he was still serving his first term as president.
He denied any wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty to all federal charges in the case.
Catch up quick: Trump was indicted in 2023 and charged with conspiracy to defraud the U.S., conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding and conspiracy against rights.
The indictment came months after the House Jan. 6 select committee accused him of taking part "multi-part conspiracy to overturn the lawful results of the 2020 Presidential election."
Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.
For the record: The Justice Department did not release volume two of the report on the Trump's federal classified documents case in Florida because portions of the case against other defendants are ongoing.
Judge Aileen Cannon has ordered a hearing later this week on whether to release the second part of the report.
Data: Gallup; Note: Employee engagement is defined as the involvement and enthusiasm employees feel toward their work and workplace; Chart: Axios Visuals
Employee engagement — the involvement and enthusiasm employees feel toward their work and workplace — is at a 10-year low, per a Gallup survey out Tuesday.
Why it matters: Workers had a rough 2024: Many felt stuck in jobs as hiring slowed, while others were forced back to the office full-time or felt a spun out by a lot of internal restructuring.
Research shows that "when organizations have people with clear roles, who have people who care about them, who feel connected to the mission or purpose of the company, where their opinions count, they tend to produce more," said Jim Harter, Gallup's chief scientist of workplace management.
Zoom in: Gallup measures engagement by surveying full-time and part-time workers across 12 measures — including if they're satisfied with their workplace, know what's expected of them and feel like they have the opportunity to "do what I do best every day."
The measures that saw the biggest drops versus pre-pandemic survey data from March 2020:
Fewer employees said they clearly know what is expected of them at work, down 10 points from a high of 56%.
Only 39% of workers felt strongly that someone cares about them as a person at work, down from 47%.
Only 30% said that someone encourages their development, down from 36%.
Zoom out: The new data follows a separate report late last year, where Gallup identified a "Great Detachment," with more folks saying they're not satisfied at work and want a new job.
The big picture: Engagement had a good run, steadily rising after the 2008 recession as corporate management improved and leaders realized the importance of culture, said Harter.
But the pandemic changed everything, and engagement has been falling since 2020 as everyone adjusted to a rapid series of changes in the workplace, from the rise of remote work, to a wave of resignations and hiring, and then a subsequent slowdown.
"In the last two years or so, there's just been an overwhelming sort of lack of interest in things like employee engagement," said Massella Dukuly, head of workplace strategy at Charter, a future-of-work media and research company.
The attitude seems to be that workers don't have anywhere else to go in this job market, she said.
💭 Emily's thought bubble: It seems more than coincidental that workplaces became more focused on good management and culture at a time when interest rates were very low and they could afford such luxuries as making sure employees feel valued.
Perhaps high worker engagement was another ZIRP phenomenon.
House Democrats' two largest ideological factions are trying to tamp down their disagreements ahead of President-elect Trump's return to the White House, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: HouseDemocrats see their number one task as taking on Trump and winning back control of Congress in 2026. Everything else, they say, can wait.
"Across the board, I think all of us in the Democratic Caucus want to focus on taking back the majority," said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the former chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
What we're hearing: Members of both the Progressive Caucus and the center-left New Democrat Coalition — which each contain roughly 100 of the 215 House Democrats, with some overlap — confirmed the talks to Axios.
"Those conversations are starting," a Progressive Caucus member, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Axios.
A New Dems member said the focus is on "finding common ground."
What they're saying: Progressive Caucus chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) told Axios there are "conversations being had about trying to make sure that we're unified and cordial and understanding of everybody."
After Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) was elected New Dems chair in November, Casar said, "he reached out to me ... about us finding areas of common ground and making sure that we maintain unity across the Dem caucus."
Schneider told Axios: "We actually had a meeting, and we both said this — we should be talking to each other every day and the best way to avoid unintended circumstances is to communicate with each other."
"So as long as we're talking and not dropping surprises on the other, I think we'll have a good working relationship," Schneider added.
Zoom in: While Republicans' infighting has generally grabbed the headlines over the last two years, Democrats have grappled with their fair share of internal divisions.
The Oct. 7 attack and the resulting Israel-Hamas war, in particular, have put House Democrats at odds and resulted in public swiping.
The party's 2024 election loss has also resulted in a new round of finger-pointing over which ideological flank of the party was to blame.
Zoom in: Separate from these talks, members of both caucuses also described an informal consensus that is emerging around not endorsing primary challengers against incumbent House Democrats.
Said Jayapal: "We are trying to get to a [Democratic] caucus-wide agreement that we do not weigh in against incumbents and that we focus on open seats."
Schneider noted the two caucuses "both respected" that practice last cycle and said he "would expect that to continue."
The bottom line: "I think we're all united on ... one purposes, and that's 218 [House seats], the majority," said Schneider.
"We need to keep the eyes on that. I want to see Hakeem Jeffries as speaker. I want to see Democrats with gavels in their hands."
Secretary of State Tony Blinken will lay out a plan for rebuilding and governing Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war on Tuesday, three U.S. officials tell Axios.
Why it matters: Blinken is down to his last week in Foggy Bottom, but he hopes his blueprint will become a reference point for any future day-after plan for Gaza, including for the incoming Trump administration.
Driving the news: Blinken will lay out his plan in a speech at the Atlantic Council on Tuesday morning amid efforts to conclude a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.
President-elect Donald Trump told Newsmax on Monday night that Israel and Hamas are "very close" to a deal. "I understand that there has been a handshake and they are getting it finished — maybe by the end of the week," he said. Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff is participating in the negotiations in Doha.
A plan for the post-Hamas governance structure in Gaza would be crucial for efforts to implement the second phase of the Gaza deal, which is designed to lead to a permanent ceasefire and the end of the war.
State of play: Blinken has presented his plan for Gaza's security, administration and reconstruction after a ceasefire agreement is in place to several U.S. allies.
"We are ready to hand that over to the Trump administration so it can work on it and run with it when the opportunity is there," he said at a press conference in Paris last week.
Behind the scenes: Blinken's plan has become a highly contentious issue inside the State Department and a source of fierce internal fighting.
Some State Department officials were concerned the plan would serve Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's interests and marginalize marginalize the Palestinian Authority and President Mahmoud Abbas.
Catch up-quick: Axios reported in October that Blinken was working on a post-war plan for Gaza based on ideas developed by Israel and the United Arab Emirates and wanted to present it after the presidential election.
Blinken appointed his adviser and close friend Jamie Rubin as the point person for the day-after plan.
Several week ago, Rubin traveled to Israel and the West Bank to discuss the plan. U.S. officials said Palestinian Authority officials gave Rubin a long list of reservations about the plan, signaling they don't support it.
The State Department has briefed the Israeli government, the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries on the main points in the speech, U.S. officials said.
Blinken's plan is based on establishing a governing mechanism that will include the involvement of international community and Arab countries that could also send troops to Gaza to stabilize the security situation and deliver humanitarian aid.
The speech will call for reform of the Palestinian Authority, while making clear the PA must be a part of any future government in Gaza.
The Israeli government wants Arab countries to be involved in a post-war Gaza but has so far refused to agree to any day-after plan which includes the involvement of the Palestinian Authority.
Blinken's speech will also reiterate the principles he laid out in Tokyo early in the war and that object to any permanent Israeli occupation of Gaza, the decrease of its territory or the forced transfer of Palestinians from Gaza.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller declined to comment.
The bottom line: "Blinken wants to try and shape the outcome of the war and he will make clear in his speech how he thinks Israel can turn its tactical wins against Hamas into strategic gains," a U.S. official said.
Starbucks is rolling back a policy that allows people to hang out there or use the bathroom without buying anything.
Why it matters: The chain implemented the policy in 2018, following a national uproar when two Black men who hadn't purchased anything were arrested at a Starbucks in Philadelphia.
The big picture: The shift is part of a new code of conduct at Starbucks cafes.
Among the changes will be the posting of signs banning discrimination and harassment, violence or abusive language, outside alcohol, panhandling, drug use, and other disruptive behavior.
What they're saying: "By setting clear expectations for behavior and use of our spaces, we can create a better environment for everyone," Starbucks spokesperson Jaci Anderson says.
Between the lines: It's one of the first big changes after the company hired CEO Brian Niccol, who is under pressure to pull off a turnaround amid disappointing sales.
"Our values, developed with input from hundreds of partners, aren't changing," Niccol wrote Thursday in a message posted on Starbuck's website before the policy change surfaced.
Southern California Edison is being sued by residents and businesses impacted by the Eaton Fire, who allege the Los Angeles utility's equipment may have started the deadly blaze.
The big picture: It's among multiple wildfires that have erupted across the L.A. area since last week in extremely dry conditions with powerful Santa Ana winds, and the National Weather Service has issued a rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Red Flag Warning that's set to last until Wednesday.
There have been at least 25 reported wildfire-related deaths, including 17 in the Eaton Fire. The 14,117-acre blaze ignited on Jan. 7 and was 33% contained as of Monday evening, per Cal Fire.
Driving the news: The cause of the Eaton Fire is still being investigated, but lawyers for Singleton Schreiber allege in the lawsuit on behalf of the plaintiffs that it may have begun when Edison's electrical equipment contacted or caused sparks to contact surrounding vegetation.
The complaint that was filed in the L.A. Superior Court against the utility and Edison International says the utility reported itself to the California Public Utilities Commission on Jan. 9 to say "its equipment was located within the general area of ignition."
The complaint added: "Defendants deliberately prioritized profits over safety. This recklessness and conscious disregard for human safety was a substantial factor in bringing about the Eaton Fire."
What they're saying: Southern California Edison spokesperson Jeff Monford said Monday evening SCE was aware that a lawsuit related to the Eaton Fire had been filed, but it had not yet been served with a complaint.
"SCE will review the complaint when it is received. The cause of the fire continues to be under investigation," Monford said by phone.
"Our hearts remain with our communities during the devastating fires in Southern California, and we remain committed to supporting them through this difficult time. SCE crews, contractors and mutual assistance partners are dedicated to safely restoring power to our customers."
Americans have consistently viewed medical workers, K-12 teachers and military officers as the most ethical professions — but even their ratings have dropped considerably, new Gallup polling shows.
Why it matters: Americans' opinion of the ethics of various professions has stalled at its lowest point — reflective of declining confidence in U.S. institutions overall.
"Americans interact with numerous professionals in their daily lives, while depending on others they've never met to maintain an efficient, fair and secure society," per the annual survey data, released Monday.
"Whether reflecting personal experience or secondhand reports, Americans' sense of how much they can trust each profession varies widely, likely influencing how they engage with each."
The big picture: The average honesty and ethics ratings for 11 core professions was 30% in Monday's report, down from 40% in 2005.
Three professions had "majority negative" ratings: — TV reporters, members of Congress and lobbyists.
Those were followed by roles including advertising practitioners, car salespeople, business executives and state officeholders.
Day care providers, funeral directors, police officers and auto mechanics enjoyed "net positive" ratings.
The intrigue: Three of the five professions with "majority positive" ratings were in medical fields, but nursing home operators had "net negative" ratings.
Despite being among the highest in the list, trust in medical doctors and pharmacists has dropped below pre-pandemic levels.
Polling released last year separately showed that more people are trusting in their own ability to assess health information or turn to friends to guidance amid lack of trust in public health agencies.
Grade school teachers also received "majority positive ratings," but Americans have expressed growing dissatisfaction with K-12 education.
Zoom in: Trust in judges and clergy have fallen the most, long-term, although ratings were still net positive for both.
Trust in judges reached a low of 28% in the honesty and ethics rating, a 21-point decrease since the early 2000s.
Public approval of the Supreme Court nearly reached a record low after the court concluded its most recent term, per previous Gallup polling. Approval plunged in particular among Democrats as the high court's rulings have leaned conservative.
Meanwhile, every age group has seen declines in religious affiliations during the past decade.
State of play: U.S. trust in mass media hit a historic low last year, and Monday's report echoes low ratings of TV and newspaper reporters.
55% of respondents rated TV reporters as having "majority negative" honesty and ethical standards, a nine percentage point drop since the early 2000s.
45% said the same of newspaper reporters, which have had consistently low ratings over the years.
Flashback: Nurses have earned the highest rating every year but one since they were added to the survey in 1999.
"The exception was 2001, when firefighters — included only that year — earned a record 90% trust rating after their heroism in responding to the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers," the report said.
Methodology: Telephone interviews were conducted Dec. 2-18 with a random sample of 1,003 adults living in all 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth's confirmation hearing is becoming a test of will for Republicans on ensuring FBI files aren't distributed throughout the entire Senate.
Why it matters: The Trump transition team is demanding that the president-elect's nominees be treated the same way they insist Joe Biden's were.
That means no FBI background check access for rank-and-file senators, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Senate Armed Services chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and ranking member Jack Reed (D-R.I.) have been briefed on the report. Others have not.
A member of the Trump transition sat in on the FBI background briefing on Hegseth's file, a source familiar told Axios. The senators weren't given a copy of the file. They also weren't allowed to take notes or pictures.
Zoom in: Wicker privately raised the idea of letting his full committee see Hegseth's file, but Trump officials are opposed to sharing it, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The Trump team wants to hold the line on having a consistent standard for all nominees.
Look for them to fight any effort to release Hegseth's file, even if Wicker says there's not much of interest.
Zoom out: Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Dems are huddling tonight on how to respond, as Axios scooped earlier on Monday.
Democrats admit the precedent is on the GOP's side. But they say the nature of Hegseth's nomination — including allegations of sexual misconduct that he's denied — at least deserves a conversation.
"We should all be able to see the report and draw our own conclusions about how incomplete it is and even in the modest amount it covers, how much damage it does to Mr. Hegseth," Armed Services committee member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told Axios.
Editor's note: This article has been updated with details on the background briefing.
The big picture: Hunter Biden was the first child of a sitting president to face criminal charges. He was convicted on felony gun charges in Delaware in June, and pleaded guilty on felony tax charges in California in September.
Driving the news: Weiss criticized President Biden in the report for claiming his son was unfairly prosecuted in the six-year investigation, calling those "baseless accusations" with "no merit."
Weiss said: "The president's characterizations are incorrect based on the facts in this case, and on a more fundamental level, they are wrong."
He wrote that "other presidents have pardoned family members, but in doing so, none have taken the occasion as an opportunity to malign the public servants at the Department of Justice based solely on false accusations."
Representatives for the White House and Hunter Biden did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.
Context: Weiss has been overseeing the Hunter Biden case since the first Trump administration as U.S. Attorney for Delaware.
When Biden took office, he kept Weiss on finish his work.
Attorney General Merrick Garland named Weiss as special counsel in 2023.
Zoom in: Defending his reasoning for the charges, Weiss that he concluded Hunter Biden "had committed each and every one of the elements of a criminal offense" and that "a faithful jury would be more likely to convict than acquit him."
At "no time did my decisions take into account personal opinions-mine or anyone else's-about Mr. Biden's moral character, his popularity or unpopularity among the general public or a certain subgroup like a political party, the ethical propriety of his conduct, or other value judgments," he wrote.
Weiss said Hunter Biden, "as a well-educated lawyer and businessman ... consciously and willfully" broke the law by failing to pay taxes "despite having access to funds to pay some or all" of them.
Zoom out: Weiss charged both Hunter Biden and former FBI informant Alexander Smirnov during his investigation.
In the report, Weiss said his team determined that Smirnov's allegations about Hunter Biden were fabricated.
Smirnov pleaded guilty last month to lying about a phone bribery scheme involving Hunter Biden and was sentenced to six years in prison.
Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.
