Elon Musk on Friday floated an electoral strategy for his hypothetical political party, via a post on X.

Why it matters: Musk is the world's richest man and his dollars could make a difference in tight races next November.

Catch up quick: Musk helped bankroll President Trump's reelection, but the pair since have fallen out.

• Most recently, Musk has been an outspoken critic of Trump's signature legislation, which the Tesla CEO believes is fiscally irresponsible and hurts America's global competitiveness.

What he's saying: Musk first asked X followers if they "want independence from the two party (some would say uniparty) system," and thus would support the creation of "the America Party."

He then added:

The bottom line: Musk didn't identify any specific races, so for now this is just a trial balloon.

President Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky in a call on Friday that the U.S. wants to help Ukraine with air defense, due to escalating Russian attacks, a Ukrainian official and a source with knowledge of the call said.

Why it matters: Earlier this week the Pentagon paused a weapons shipment, including air defense interceptors and ammunication, to Ukraine's army.

• The decision caught Ukraine and many Trump administration officials surprise.

Behind the scenes: The two sources said the call between Trump and Zelensky lasted around 40 minutes, with a major focus on Ukraine's air defense needs.

• One source said Trump was aware of the recent Russia escalation, including both air strikes on Ukrainian cities and on the frontline.
• "Trump said he wants to help with air defense and that he will check what was put on hold if anything," the source said.
• The Ukrainian official said Trump and Zelensky agreed that teams from the U.S. and Ukraine soon will meet to discuss air defense and other weapons supplies.
• The White House didn't respond to a request for comment.

What they are saying: Zelensky wrote on X that he spoke to Trump about "opportunities in air defense" and that they "agreed that we will work together to strengthen protection of our skies."

• "We - in Ukraine - are grateful for all the support provided. It helps us protect lives, safeguard our freedom and independence. We have achieved a lot together with America and we support all efforts to stop the killings and restore just, lasting, and dignified peace. A noble agreement for peace is needed," Zelensky wrote.

Driving the news: Trump spoke with Russian president Putin on Thursday about the war in Ukraine, but later stressed that no progress has been made.

• Putin told Trump that Russia will not give up on its war objectives in Ukraine, signaling he isn't interested in peace anytime soon.
• After the call, Russia escalated its air strikes on Ukraine — launching hundreds of drones and a dozen ballistic missiles.
• "I am very disappointed with the conversation I had with Putin because I don't think he's there. He's not looking to stop. I wasn't happy with the conversation," Trump told reporters on Friday morning.

President Trump on Friday morning said he was unaware that the word "Shylock" is considered by some to be antisemitic, after using it during a Thursday night rally in Iowa.

What to know: Shylock, the villain of Shakespeare's "The Merchant of Venice," was written as a greedy and vengeful Jewish moneylender who eventually is forced to convert to Christianity.

What Trump said at the rally: "Think of that: no death tax, no estate tax, no going to the banks and borrowing from, in some cases, a fine banker. And in some cases, Shylocks and bad people."

What the Anti Defamation League said via X: "The term 'Shylock' evokes a centuries-old antisemitic trope about Jews and greed that is extremely offensive and dangerous. President Trump's use of the term is very troubling and irresponsible. It underscores how lies and conspiracies about Jews remain deeply entrenched in our country. Words from our leaders matter and we expect more from the President of the United States."

What Trump said the next day to reporters: "I've never heard it that way. To me, Shylock is somebody that's a money lender at high rates. I've never heard it that way, you view it differently than me. I've never heard that."

Flashback: In 2014, then-Vice President Biden used the term "Shylocks" to refer to rapacious bankers, after which he apologized for his "poor choice of words."

With B-2 bombers booming above, President Trump will deliver a motherlode of campaign promises for his supporters Friday, decimate his predecessor's priorities and demonstrate his total dominance over the Republican Party.

Why it matters: The MAGA mega bill is more than just an indisputable victory for the president and the party he has remade in his image.

• It's also a stinging defeat for Democrats — but has given them fodder for the 2026 midterms.
• With the stroke of his signature, Trump will undo the solar, wind and electric vehicles tax cuts that were at the core of President Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act.
• Trump will sign into law some long-term GOP goals, like making business tax credits permanent, changing how Congress counts tax cuts, pouring billions into border security, and slowing the growth of Medicaid and SNAP spending.
• The big tax cuts will apply this year. Most of the spending cuts will hit after the midterms.
• "It's going to make this country into a rocket ship," Trump said.

Zoom out: The country will little note, nor long remember how Congress passed this bill: the all-nighters, the nail-biters and the GOP false fighters, who ultimately tapped out for Trump.

• But Democrats will make it their mission to ensure that voters don't forget what Trump and congressional Republicans did in the bill.
• The tax cuts, they say, will benefit the already-wealthy the most — and the Medicaid cuts that target the poor could devastate health care options for millions.

Democrats will concede they lost on policy, but convinced they'll win — eventually — on the politics.

• For eight hours and 45 minutes Thursday, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries held up the GOP-led chamber's vote in favor of Trump's big bill, energizing his party (and his donors) by previewing attack lines certain to be distilled to 30-second TV ads for the 2026 campaign.
• "This is a crime scene," he thundered from the House floor.

The intrigue: Democrats will mischievously borrow some Republican lines that were dropped along the way amid GOP anxiety over the bill's impacts.

• "The Medicaid stuff in here is bad," said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.).
• "Garbage," declared Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) earlier this week. "It's a good bill overall," he said after voting for it.
• Expect those comments — along with Sen. Joni Ernst's "we are all going to die" shrug when the Iowa Republican was asked about Medicaid cuts — to be featured on local TV stations.

By the numbers: In all, the tax cuts total $4.5 trillion over a decade, leading to $3.3 trillion in deficit spending, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

• Republicans will say the real winners are the 83% of households that would have been hit with a tax increase if Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had expired at the end of the year.
• Democrats will focus on the more than $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, which is projected to put nearly 12 million Americans at risk of losing their health care and threaten rural hospitals across the country.
• Trump is giving his MAGA faithful $170 billion in border and immigration funds and $150 billion for defense spending.
• The oil and gas industry got many of its priorities.
• Also tucked into the bill: a rise in the nation's debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

Then there are the Trumpian touches to the bill, such as no taxes on tips, a suggestion he got from a Las Vegas waitress.

• And for babies lucky enough to be born during Trump's second reign, there are $1,000 checks, to be placed in "Trump accounts."
• But Trump quietly gave up on his plans to tax carried interest as regular income, a major win for the private equity industry.

The bottom line: Four score and seven days ago, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest point of Trump's presidency.

• Yesterday it closed at a new record high, its seventh this year.
• The economy — for now — appears to be shrugging off his tariffs, with the Labor Department reporting 147,000 new jobs in June, defying expectations.

Starting with America's 250th birthday celebration, President Trump is planning a years-long mega-celebration that puts him at the center of the world's biggest events.

Why it matters: Trump's vision for the semiquincentennial goes beyond purely American fare to showcase the country's military, economic and cultural power on a global stage.

• His expansive vision for a nonstop American celebration includes the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, The Atlantic recently reported.
• Trump is floating additional programming like a "Great American State Fair," "Patriot Games" and a "Freedom Plane" inspired by the Bicentennial-era "Freedom Train."
• In keeping with his love of spectacle, a New Year's Eve-style ball drop in Times Square has been discussed.

Driving the news: Trump's speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds Thursday night served as the formal kickoff to the celebrations and an opportunity to brag about congressional Republicans passing his "one big, beautiful bill."

• The president soft-launched 250 this year with a rare military parade to honor the Army in D.C., which coincided with nationwide "No Kings" and anti-ICE protests.
• More military branches' birthdays will be recognized this fall, with celebrations planned for the Marines and Navy.
• Trump said last night his 250th anniversary plans include a UFC fight on the grounds of the White House.

Zoom in: Some of the planned activities for America 250 are more squarely around American pride, like a student-focused America's Field Trip.

• Trump wants his proposed sculpture park, dubbed the National Garden of American Heroes, to be ready by July 2026. The plans feature life-size statues of figures like Ronald Reagan, Whitney Houston and Jackie Robinson — "all approved by Trump," as the Wall Street Journal reported.
• "We're going to have a big, big celebration, as you know — 250 years," Trump said at Arlington Cemetery in late May. "In some ways, I'm glad I missed that second term because I wouldn't be your president for that. Can you imagine? I missed that four years. And now look what I have."

Reality check: The turbocharged celebrations come as Americans report record-low levels of patriotic pride.

State of play: Preparations for America's 250th birthday have been underway since roughly 2016 under former President Obama, though they've taken a more MAGA bent since January.

• There are two main organizers at the national level: the White House's Task Force 250, which Trump chairs and established via an executive order in his first week in office, and the congressional America250 Commission, which was established in 2016, meant to be nonpartisan and is backed by a nonprofit.

Ex-Fox News producer Ariel Abergel, who interned in Trump's first White House and finished college in 2021, is now America250's executive director.

• Other Trump allies like fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke and Trump adviser Chris LaCivita serve roles in the foundation supporting the America250 commission's work.
• Outside of the federal planning effort, expect state-level programming across the country.

The intrigue: Donors to America250 include companies that have been seen as Trump-friendly, like Amazon, Coinbase and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

President Trump will host a UFC fight at the White House as part of celebrations marking 250 years since the signing of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, he announced at a Thursday rally in Iowa.

The big picture: "Every one of our national park battlefields and historic sites are going to have special events in honor of 'America250' and I even think we're going to have a UFC fight," Trump said on the eve of the July Fourth holiday during a speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines that kicked off yearlong 250th anniversary celebrations.

• Trump said his longtime friend and Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO Dana White would organize the event. "It's going to be a championship fight, full fight, like 20,000 to 25,000 people and we're going to do that as part of '250' also," he said.
• Other celebrations will include "the great American State Fair" that will "bring America250 programming for fairgrounds across the country, culminating in a giant patriotic festival next summer on the National Mall, featuring exhibits from all 50 states," according to Trump.

What they're saying: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is "dead serious" about the UFC fight plans, per a White House pool report.

• Representatives for the UFC did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on Thursday evening.

What we're watching: Trump plans to hold a "Signing Celebration" at the White House on Friday as he writes his "big, beautiful bill" into law 250 years to the day that the Declaration of Independence was signed, according to a Truth Social post he wrote ahead of the Des Moines rally.

Go deeper: Casting himself as a fighter, Trump aligns with UFC

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

President Trump met with the Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman at the White House on Thursday and discussed the situation with Iran and other regional issues, according to a source familiar with the meeting.

Why it matters: Saudi Arabia wants to de-escalate tension in the region after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

• The talks took place ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Monday meeting with Trump at the White House.
• The Trump administration wants to push for a historic peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the coming months.

Details: After his meeting with Trump, the Saudi foreign minister spoke on the phone with Chief of Iran's General Staff of the Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi.

• "We discussed developments in the region and the efforts being made to maintain security and stability," wrote Bin Salman, who is a younger brother of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
• Bin Salman also met with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
• The meeting between Trump and the Saudi defense minister was first reported by Fox News.
• The White House didn't immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on Thursday evening.

Driving the news: Witkoff plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, Axios reported on Thursday.

• Araghchi spoke with on the phone on Thursday with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Eide and discussed the efforts to deescalate tensions in the region, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
• Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran wants to speak with the U.S. and "it is time that they do."
• The president said the U.S. doesn't want to hurt Iran. "I know they want to meet and if it is necessary I will do it," he said.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to note that Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Tariffs imposed by President Trump have generated tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the government — but the burden falls far from equally on different states.

The big picture: Who pays for tariffs is a long-settled issue — American businesses do, to the tune of billions of dollars, in places like California and Texas especially.

Driving the news: Economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide shared a new analysis with Axios showing the state-by-state cost of tariffs imposed by Trump from January through May.

• These are presidential tariffs — that is, tariffs imposed by Trump rather than Congress, mostly this term but some dating to his first term.

By the numbers: From January 1 to May 31 of this year, California faced a tariff impact of $11.3 billion, by far the highest in the country.

• Texas was a distant second at $6 billion, followed by Michigan at $3.3 billion.
• In total, in 17 states companies faced a total impact of at least $1 billion over the first five months of the year.
• At the other end, 11 states had a burden of less than $100 million, with the smallest hits to Wyoming and Alaska at just over $16 million each.

The intrigue: The burden crosses political boundaries, too — more than half of the most-impacted states voted for Trump in the last election.

The bottom line: Recent deals, like one with Vietnam, prove tariffs aren't going away anytime soon.

House Republicans' campaign arm is going on the offensive in the battle for public opinion over President Trump's "big, beautiful bill."

Why it matters: Democrats have hammered Republicans over the legislation's deep cuts to Medicaid, but the National Republican Congressional Committee thinks they have the winning message to expand their numbers in the 2026 midterms.

• Republicans plan to message their legislative victory by branding Democrats' opposition as voting to raise taxes on small businesses and American families, according to an internal memo first shared with Axios.
• "Every Democrat voted to hurt working families and to protect the status quo. ... House Republicans will be relentless in making this vote the defining issue of 2026," the memo says.

Yes, but: Republicans have their work cut out for them.

• Recent polls have shown that only 23%–38% of American adults and voters support the legislation.

Zoom in: The House-passed bill makes permanent Trump's 2017 tax cuts and adds additional tax benefits — no tax on tips or overtime and a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older.

• The NRCC is highlighting a $1,700 tax cut for families of four in their messaging efforts.
• Trump is set to speak Thursday evening at the Iowa State Fairgrounds — an event that's part July 4 celebration and part "big, beautiful bill" victory lap.

State of play: The House narrowly passed the bill 218-214, and GOP members with an array of concerns have spent days publicly dunking on the measure.

• Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas) called the bill "morally and fiscally bankrupt" in a post on X.
• Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) said the bill makes "harmful cuts to Medicaid" and puts "critical funding at risk."
• Both ultimately voted in favor of the bill with no changes.

The other side: Democrats are already vowing to make the bill a centerpiece of their midterm strategy, too.

• "From now until November 2026, the DCCC will continue to communicate the harm this bill will cause," a memo from the House Democrats' campaign arm says. "Republicans will lose the majority in 2026 and the Big, Ugly Bill will be the reason why."

Zoom in: The NRCC is confident that work requirements in Medicaid and increased border security funding resonate with voters, and they plan to spotlight those provisions.

• The memo cites an internal GOP poll that found 72% of voters support work requirements, and 86% support removing deceased or ineligible recipients from Medicaid.

The bottom line: Republicans still have a highly skeptical public to convince.

• Republicans are aware polling as a whole isn't pretty, Axios' Stef Kight reports, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) predicted last week that those numbers would improve after the final bill is passed.

Editor's note: This story is corrected to state that the bill will give a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older (not eliminate a tax on Social Security).

President Trump said on Thursday he made no progress in his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the war in Ukraine.

Why it matters: The call took place amid a stalemate in Trump's efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine and two days after the U.S. paused weapons shipments to the Ukrainian Army.

• Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said the issue of U.S. weapons supply to Ukraine didn't come up during the call between Putin and Trump.
• Trump told reporters on Thursday before boarding Air Force One on his way to Iowa that the U.S. hasn't paused weapons supply to Ukraine, but "we have to make sure we have enough for ourselves."

Driving the news: Trump said he had a long call with Putin on Iran and Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, the call lasted more than an hour.

• Trump said he "is not happy" about the war in Ukraine and stressed he "didn't make any progress at all" on this issue in his call with Putin.

The other side: Ushakov told reporters that Putin and Trump had a "detailed discussion" about Iran and the situation in the Middle East.

• He added that Putin stressed that the Iranian issue must be settled only through diplomacy.
• Ushakov said Trump stressed during the call that he wants to end the war between Russia and Ukraine swiftly.
• Putin told Trump that Russia is not going to give up on its goals in Ukraine, Ushakov said, adding that Russia sees its peace talks with Ukraine as a bilateral issue that the U.S. shouldn't be actively involved in.

What's next: Ukrainian officials said President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to speak with Trump on Friday to discuss the pause of the weapons shipments.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details about the phone call.

The EPA said Thursday it has placed 139 employees on leave after they signed a "declaration of dissent" accusing the agency of "unraveling" health and environmental protections for political reasons.

Why it matters: The letter and EPA pushback escalates internal and public disputes over the agency's deregulatory moves under President Trump.

Driving the news: "The Environmental Protection Agency has a zero-tolerance policy for career bureaucrats unlawfully undermining, sabotaging, and undercutting the administration's agenda as voted for by the great people of this country last November," an EPA spokesperson said.

• The agency said the employees are on leave pending investigation, noting that they used official titles and EPA positions. EPA also said the letter to Administrator Lee Zeldin contained misleading information.

Catch up quick: The communication from current and former EPA employees — organized in conjunction with the nonprofit "Stand Up for Science" — cites a "culture of fear" at the agency.

• It accuses EPA under Zeldin of "misinformation and overtly partisan rhetoric," citing examples like his criticisms of Biden-era grants as a "green slush fund" and praise of "beautiful, clean coal."
• It also says EPA is taking many actions that "contradict EPA's own scientific assessments" in areas like mercury and greenhouse gas emissions.
• Another section criticizes the unwinding of programs on "environmental justice" — efforts to address higher environmental burdens that poor people and communities of color often face.

The latest: As of Thursday afternoon, 620 people had signed the letter, per the group's website. Roughly 500 are current EPA employees, including both named and anonymous signers, Stand Up for Science founder and executive director Colette Delawalla told Axios.

• The group has now taken the names off the public-facing version of the letter, which she said was first sent internally to Zeldin on Monday morning and made public shortly afterward.
• She criticized the decision to place workers on leave.
• "In America, employees cannot email their bosses about concerns in their place of employment now. It's astounding," she said.

The other side: Zeldin and other Trump officials say Biden administration policies placed undue burdens on domestic energy producers and strayed from EPA's core functions.

• The administrator has talked up EPA's role in pursuing Trump's "energy dominance" agenda.
• EPA's proposals to vastly cut spending are part of a "back-to-basics" approach to environmental protection, the agency said in budget documents.

What we're watching: The NYT reports that Justin Chen, an official with the American Federation of Government Employees Council 238 that represents many EPA workers, said EPA's move was an "act of retaliation."

• He said the union would "protect our members to the full extent of the law."

A wildfire in California's San Luis Obispo County exploded in size Thursday, triggering evacuation orders and sending smoke plumes southeast into Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

The big picture: The massive Madre Fire has surpassed January's destructive Los Angeles-area wildfires to become California's largest this year, as much of the state faces hot, dry conditions that raise wildfire risks ahead of the July Fourth holiday.

The Madre Fire erupted in size in California yesterday and last night, becoming the state's largest wildfire so far this year.

The fire has grown to 35,530 acres and is 5% contained. pic.twitter.com/AmzRhhJ7yo

— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) July 3, 2025

• Officials warn that the smoke impacts of the blaze that's one of several wildfires burning in the state will be "far-reaching."

The latest: Officials in Orange County evacuated a high school and El Torito after the Tonner Fire ignited, per a City of Brea Facebook post.

By the numbers: The Madre Fire ignited near State Route 166 on Wednesday and had grown to 35,530 acres by Thursday lunchtime local time, per Cal Fire.

• The fire had swollen to 52,592 acres and was threatening 50 structures at 10% containment by the evening.

Threat level: Part of the highway was closed due to the fire, per a San Luis Obispo County Office of Emergency Services Facebook post.

• Evacuation orders and warnings were in effect for communities in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties near the highway, as the blaze burned toward Carrizo Plain National Monument, a region some 125 miles northwest of LA that's known for its grasslands and spring wildflowers.
• Red flag warnings were in effect for California's eastern Lassen, Alpine and northern Mono counties due to gusty winds and low humidity. Parts of Utah and Nevada were also under red flag warnings, including Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, state fire officials are urging Californians not to use fireworks when celebrating the Fourth of July holiday.

• "Since 2024, fireworks have caused over $35 million in property damage across California and sparked 1,230 fires," per a Cal Fire Facebook post.

Between the lines: Research shows hot, dry and windy weather that helps wildfires spread is becoming more common across much of the U.S. amid climate change, per Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick.

Go deeper: Newsom says Trump "caved" after 150 California National Guard troops moved to wildfire duty

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security says it arrested Mexican boxer Julio César Chávez Jr., and he's being processed for expedited removal from the U.S. due to an active arrest warrant in Mexico.

Why it matters: Chávez is the son of Mexican boxing legend Julio César Chávez and just lost against Jake Paul by unanimous decision in a 10-round cruiserweight subpar bout this weekend.

The big picture: This appears to be the first time the Trump administration is seeking to remove a high-profile athlete from the country amid stepped-up immigration enforcement.

• And the detainment came a year before the U.S. serves as one of the countries hosting the World Cup, which is already drawing scrutiny from civil rights and labor groups over the U.S. government's immigration policies.

Driving the news: DHS posted on X on Thursday that it had detained Chávez and was placing him for fast-track removal.

• "This Sinaloa Cartel affiliate has an active arrest warrant in Mexico for his involvement in organized crime and trafficking firearms, ammunitions and explosives," the department posted.
• The department also alleged that Chávez was a "criminal illegal alien" and said he had previously been arrested in the U.S. on DUI and weapons charges.
• A district judge in 2023 also issued an arrest warrant for Chávez on charges related to organized crime.

Chávez's attorney, Michael Goldstein, told ESPN that the boxer was picked up by federal agents while riding a scooter near his home in Studio City, California.

• Goldstein didn't know where Chávez was being detained, but said they were due in court on Monday for his criminal charges.

Zoom in: DHS stated that Chávez entered the country legally in August 2023 with a B2 tourist visa, which was valid until February 2024.

• He then filed an application for Lawful Permanent Resident status in April 2024, the department said.
• "Chávez's application was based on his marriage to a U.S. citizen, who is connected to the Sinaloa Cartel through a prior relationship with the now-deceased son of the infamous cartel leader Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman," the department said.
• Axios could not independently verify the claim.

State of play: The Biden administration allowed Chávez to reenter the country in January and paroled him into the country at the San Ysidro port of entry, the Trump administration said.

• "Following multiple fraudulent statements on his application to become a Lawful Permanent Resident, he was determined to be in the country illegally and removable on June 27, 2025," the department said.

What they're saying: "It is shocking the previous administration flagged this criminal illegal alien as a public safety threat, but chose to not prioritize his removal and let him leave and COME BACK into our country," said DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a release.

• "Under President Trump, no one is above the law—including world-famous athletes."

Go deeper: Trump travel ban may hit MLB players from Cuba, Venezuela

The Big, Beautiful Bill, passed Thursday by Congress, dramatically increases funding for immigration enforcement in accordance with President Trump's policy priorities.

Why it matters: The funding will allow the Trump administration to approximately double immigrant detention capacity, significantly bolster immigration enforcement personnel and potentially exacerbate backlogs in the court system.

The big picture: The bill, which will go to Trump's desk by his July 4 goal, allocates more than $100 billion to ICE and border enforcement through September 2029.

• While the funding runs until 2029, federal departments are not required to spend the money evenly each year.
• The legislation makes ICE the largest federal law enforcement agency, per the Brennan Center.

Zoom out: The existing annual budget for ICE was about $8 billion.

Context: Trump's immigration enforcement policies have put ICE under financial strain.

• As of last month, ICE was $1 billion over budget, by one estimate, with more than three months left in the fiscal year.
• The funding crisis is exacerbated by Trump's demands that agents arrest 3,000 immigrants per day — an unprecedented, and still unreached, pace.

Read more about some of the bill's immigration funding allocations:

Border wall

$46.5 billion will go toward border wall expenses including construction, installation, improvement, access roads, cameras, lights and other detection technology.

• This is the bill's largest expenditure, per AP.

Zoom out: Border crossings earlier this year plunged to the lowest level in decades as Trump began implementing and broadcasting his immigration crackdown.

Detention capacity

$45 billion is for single adult detention and family residential centers.

• The detention standards will be under the discretion of the Secretary of Homeland Security, the bill says.

State of play: This could fund an increase in ICE detention to at least 116,000 beds, according to a July 1 report from the American Immigration Council said.

Personnel and facilities

$29.9 billion is set to fund hiring, training and retention of ICE officers, agents, investigators and support staff as well as ICE technology, transportation and fleet modernization.

$5 billion was apportioned for the lease, acquisition, construction, design or improvement of facilities and checkpoints owned or operated by Customs and Border Protection.

$4.1 billion will support hiring and training Border Patrol agents, Customs and Border Protection field support personnel, Air and Marine Agents and others.

• An additional $2 billion will go toward retention, hiring and performance bonuses.

Immigration court

$3.3 billion for hiring immigration judges, attorneys and support staff; combatting drug trafficking; prosecuting of immigration matters.

• Effective November 2028, the Executive Office for Immigration Review is limited to staffing 800 immigration judges and their support staff.
• Providing a small sum to immigration courts while increasing funding for immigration arrests and detention "will likely dramatically increase already high immigration court case backlogs particularly for people held in detention facilities," per the American Immigration Council.

Go deeper:

• Local officials grow wary of helping ICE detain immigrants
• Axios Explains: Inside ICE's superpowers

The House passed President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" Thursday, clearing the way for Trump to sign it by his July 4 deadline.

Why it matters: It's a massive victory for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who was able to flip dozens of members who had initially threatened to vote "no" — as well as for Trump and Senate Republicans.

• The bill passed 218-214. Reps. Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) were the only Republicans to join all Democrats in voting against the measure.
• Moderates and conservatives demanded adjustments after the Senate made significant changes to the House version — but ultimately none were made.

The big picture: Several key holdouts flipped following meetings with the president at the White House, but a group of hardliners needed more persuading.

• Johnson and other leaders shuffled in and out of a room tucked off the House floor where House Freedom Caucus members camped out during negotiations.
• Trump "was directly engaged" throughout the evening in the ongoing effort to sway lawmakers, who "wanted to hear certain assurances from him about what's ahead, what the future will entail, and what we're going to do next," Johnson told reporters.
• The House narrowly approved its own version of the bill in May with the commitment from leadership that members would see improvements.

Zoom in: House GOP leadership had to hold open what was meant to be a five-minute procedural vote for hours Wednesday as they worked to whip the remaining "no" votes.

• They eventually set a new record for the longest House vote: seven hours and 24 minutes.
• Another vote to start debate on the bill was left open for nearly 6 hours.

Between the lines: The House floor again came to a standstill overnight while House leaders continued negotiations.

• A resolution setting the terms for floor debate on the reconciliation package was eventually adopted — at about 3:30am Thursday.
• In the end, Fitzpatrick was the only Republican to vote with all Democrats in opposition to the rule resolution.

The intrigue: And after GOP leaders finally secured the votes to pass the bill, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) caused yet another delay.

• Perry had returned to Pennsylvania to get a "fresh change of clothes," according to Johnson.
• Conservatives demanded House leaders wait for him to return to Washington to cast his vote.
• Johnson said he even offered to loan Perry clothes, but Perry refused the offer.

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) held the floor for close to nine hours Thursday to protest the proposal, setting a new record.

• But Democrats ultimately could only delay and not block the plan.

The details: The bill makes permanent Trump's 2017 tax cuts and adds additional tax benefits, including eliminating taxes on tips and overtime and giving a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older.

• It makes significant changes to Medicaid, including imposing work requirements and reducing federal cost-sharing with states.
• It raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and provides $175 billion for border security as well as $150 billion for defense.
• It temporarily raises the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions to $40,000 before reverting to the current $10,000 cap after 5 years.

By the numbers: The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add roughly $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years.

• The White House disputes the analysis, arguing it would instead decrease the deficit by over $5 trillion when combined with other growth efforts.
• CBO also estimates the changes to Medicaid would result in nearly 12 million fewer people with health insurance over the next decade.

What's next: Johnson is already eyeing another reconciliation package for later this year.

• "The plan is to do one in the fall for FY26 budget year, and we can also squeeze in a third one for FY27 before this Congress is up," Johnson said on Fox Tuesday.
• "Speaker Johnson has been really good about talking long-term, that this is not the only tool at the disposal of Congress," Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) told reporters.
• He added: "There are a number of other things that can be done legislatively in the months to come to more fully deliver conservative priorities."

Editor's note: This story is corrected to state that the bill will give a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older (not eliminate a tax on Social Security).

President Trump's massive tax and spending bill, which is advancing through the House after surviving its Republican push through the Senate, would slash food benefits for thousands.

The big picture: It would mark a historic cut to the social safety net that Republicans claim weeds out waste, fraud and abuse — but experts say the restructuring of assistance programs could leave more people hungry and uninsured.

Context: Trump's signature policy bill adjusts work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the country's largest nutrition assistance program.

• In order to keep their benefits under the Senate-passed version of the bill, parents of children aged 14 or older would have to meet work requirements. The bill also bumps the work requirement age up to 64.
• Currently, SNAP's requirements for able-bodied adults without dependents apply to those between 18 and 54.
• It could also force some states to shoulder more benefit costs, the rate of which would be set by a state's percent of erroneous payments. Benefits are currently 100% federally funded, though states share administrative costs.

Threat level: Medicaid and food aid cuts could also lead to job losses and hits to state GDPs, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes.

Zoom out: In March 2025, more than 42 million Americans participated in SNAP, according to initial USDA data.

• The program provides crucial support for families with low-paying jobs, low-income older adults, people with disabilities and others.
• According to a CBPP analysis of FY 2024 USDA data, more than 62% of SNAP participants are in families with children, and more than 38% are in working families.
• New Mexico has the largest share participating in SNAP, with some 21% of the population helped by the program, according to preliminary March data.

By the numbers: The bill would reduce nutrition funding, which includes SNAP, by around $186 billion between 2025 and 2034.

• While analyst's projections have fluctuated as the legislation's provisions are tweaked, analysts have indicated millions of people could be cut from SNAP under the work requirement provisions.
• CBPP points to a CBO indication that more than 2 million people would be cut from SNAP under the work requirement provision.
• While the CBPP notes that revised legislation released June 25 slightly modified several SNAP provisions in the reconciliation plan, it still says more than 5 million people live in households at risk of losing at least some food assistance.

Go deeper: 5 under-the-radar pieces of Trump's "big, beautiful bill" that may impact your life

Multiple crypto companies have applied for national bank charters, with more expected on the way.

Why it matters: Crypto companies are increasingly laying the plumbing for potentially huge new business lines as Washington readies new rules and regulations.

Driving the news: The stablecoin company Circle, fresh off its $18 billion IPO, confirmed on Monday that it had applied with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank, First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A.

• The cryptocurrency firm Ripple announced Wednesday that it too had also applied for a national banking license.
• And others are seeking approval too, including Fidelity's digital assets business.

The big picture: The sudden rush comes as stablecoin legislation, which defines new requirements for issuers in the U.S., moves closer to President Trump's desk.

• Large issuers will need the imprimatur of the OCC to run a compliant dollar-backed stablecoin if Congress passes the GENIUS Act this year.
• A national charter would also smooth the path for digital asset firms to expand their business lines, setting them up to offer custody services, tokenized assets and payment infrastructures.

Between the lines: National trust banks aren't traditional Main Street banks, and can't accept customer deposits or make loans.

• Circle said that, if approved, First National Digital Currency Bank would manage the reserve assets backing its stablecoin, USDC, and offer custody services to institutional customers.

State of play: One crypto company has had such a charter since 2021: Anchorage Digital. It declined to comment on its stablecoin plans.

• Paxos, another stablecoin issuer, which oversees Paypal's PYUSD, sought a charter previously, but the application expired in 2023.
• Paxos declined to comment about whether or not it would renew its application.

What we're watching: Banking groups.

• They have objected in the past to crypto firms seeking these charters.

The American labor market keeps hanging on, even as signs of weakness crop up.

Why it matters: Hiring is solid, defying expectations that the worrisome macroeconomic backdrop — huge uncertainty about trade, immigration, and the fiscal outlook — would keep more employers on the sidelines.

• But Thursday's Bureau of Labor Statistics report stops well short of giving an "all-clear" for the economy.

• Beyond the headline, labor supply is dwindling and demand for workers is narrowing. These issues could plague the labor market in the months ahead.

By the numbers: Employment increased by 147,000 last month, surpassing the gain of 115,000 jobs forecasters anticipated. The unemployment rate edged down a tick to 4.1%.

• The government revised up payroll figures for April and May, noting that employment in the prior two months was higher by a combined 16,000 than initially forecast.
• The report showed that 80.7% of the prime-age population — those aged 25-54 — was employed, just 0.2 percentage point shy of the peak seen in this economic cycle.

Zoom in: Conditions look less cheery beneath the surface. The private sector added just 74,000 jobs in June, almost half as many as the previous month.

• Jobs growth was overwhelmingly concentrated in state and local government, with less impressive gains in the most cyclical sectors — that is, those most exposed to the weakening economy.
• State and local government added 73,000 jobs, offsetting the continued declines in federal government (-7,000) from DOGE-related layoffs. The other big gainer was health care, which added 39,000 jobs.
• While the number of unemployed Americans fell, the labor force also continued to shrink for the second consecutive month, helping keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate. Another 130,000 workers exited the workforce in June.

What they're saying: "There are real weaknesses in the market — including concentrated job gains, slowing wage growth, and falling participation — that have persisted for months, and there are scant signs of those concerns fading anytime soon," Indeed economist Cory Stahle wrote Thursday morning.

The big picture: Stahle compared the current labor market to a sturdy tent, but one that is "increasingly held up by fewer poles."

• Among those poles are structural forces, including a shortage of workers from America's aging population and the immigration crackdown.
• There is also an "ongoing reluctance among employers so far" to layoff workers in masse, a scarring effect of the pandemic when it was impossible to find and train staff.

Yes, but: There are profound economic changes underway that look set to supersede those factors; the adoption of AI is already shifting employers' hiring plans.

• President Trump is ending the era of free trade, making it more costly for businesses to get goods from overseas — a dynamic that will force a reckoning among companies about their other expenses, including labor.

The bottom line: "Even well-staked tents can collapse when the wind shifts hard enough," Stahle says.

The overwhelming consensus on Capitol Hill was that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) would only delay President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" by about an hour. By midday Thursday, he had broken the record for the longest House speech in history.

Why it matters: For months, the Democratic base has been demanding their party's leaders "fight harder" and use every tool at their disposal to stymie the GOP agenda. In the eyes of many lawmakers, this is Jeffries delivering.

• "The base wants to see certain things and we have to show them those things, otherwise they don't believe we're fighting hard enough," one House Democrat told Axios.
• Jeffries blasted the GOP's marquee tax and spending bill as an "immoral document" in his speech, vowing to "stand up and push back against it with everything we have on behalf of the American people."
• At 1:26pm ET, Jeffries surpassed then-Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) record-breaking, 8-and-a-half hour speech to delay the Build Back Better vote in 2021. He wrapped up about 15 minutes later, after a total of eight hours and 44 minutes.

What we're hearing: One of Jeffries' central motivations, numerous Democratic sources told Axios, was to ensure that Republicans were forced to pass the bill during daylight hours and not in the dead of night.

• Jeffries said in his speech: "I ask the question, if Republicans were so proud of this one big, ugly bill, why did debate begin at 3:28am in the morning?"
• "This is about fighting for the American people ... forcing it into the daylight and telling some stories about the real impacts," House Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told Axios.

Zoom in: Jeffries spoke with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) ahead of the speech to warn him about his plans, two sources familiar with the discussion told Axios on the condition of anonymity to share details of a private conversation.

• The House Democratic leader communicated that he was initially "just going to do an hour" but that it "may be longer now," according to one of the sources.
• Another source said Jeffries made that decision "when he learned [Johnson] was going to stay all night until he got the votes."
• Multiple lawmakers told Axios that his plans were fueled by Republicans' own record-breaking delay tactics: "Part of it was all the bulls*** that happened last night, all the delays," said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.).

What he's saying: "Budgets are moral documents, and in our view ... budgets should be designed to lift people up," Jeffries said in his speech.

• "This reckless Republican budget that we are debating right now on the floor on the House of Representatives tears people down ... and everyone should vote 'no' against it," he said.
• Jeffries was consistently surrounded by dozens of House Democratic colleagues, who raucously applauded him throughout his speech.

Yes, but: The Democratic leader did face a bit of frustration from his caucus for leaving even his inner circle in the dark about his plans.

• "No one is upset Hakeem wanted to do this, but to not tell members, 'be prepared, book multiple flights, be flexible,'" a second House Democrat who spoke on the condition of anonymity vented, grumbling that it is particularly hard to rebook flights around the July 4 holiday.
• A third House Democrat fumed that a "heads up would have been nice."

Between the lines: Jeffries' marathon speech comes after Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) delivered a 25-hour filibuster in April that earned him plaudits from the Democrats' grassroots as a resistance hero.

• Later that month, Jeffries and Booker held a day-long sit-in on the Capitol steps in protest of Republicans' fiscal plans.

The bottom line: "I've done 12 town halls in my district, and the common theme is not only 'fight back,' but 'fight harder' and 'use your voice' and 'use every tool that is available to you,'" said McGovern.

• "One of those tools is our voice," he added. "Hakeem is actually reading real-life stories [of people who would be affected by the bill] ... and I think that's powerful."
• Said the first House Democrat who spoke anonymously: "So much of politics has turned into showtime, and so we do showtime."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.

Why it matters: The sources said a final date hasn't been set, and neither country has publicly confirmed the meeting. But if it happens, it would mark the first direct talks since President Trump ordered an unprecedented military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities last month.

• "We have no travel announcements at this time," a White House official told Axios.
• The Iranian mission to the UN declined to comment.

Behind the scenes: Witkoff and Araghchi have been in direct contact during and since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, which ended in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, according to the sources.

• Omani and Qatari officials have also been involved in mediating between the two sides.
• In the immediate aftermath of the war, the Iranians were reluctant to engage with the U.S., but that position has gradually softened.
• Israel's Channel 12 was the first to report on the planned meeting.

What to watch: A key issue in any future talks will be Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which includes 400 kilograms enriched to 60%.

• Israeli and U.S. officials say the material is currently "sealed off from the outside world" inside the three nuclear sites attacked during the joint strikes: the enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, and the underground tunnels at the Isfahan site.
• Iran is unable to access the stockpile for now due to damage from the strikes, but it could be recovered once the rubble is cleared.

State of play: Iran announced earlier this week that it has begun implementing a new law passed by parliament that suspends all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

• Araghchi wrote on X Thursday that Iran remains committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and its Safeguards Agreement.
• "In accordance with the new legislation by [parliament], sparked by the unlawful attacks against our nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S., our cooperation with the IAEA will be channeled through Iran's Supreme National Security Council for obvious safety and security reasons," he wrote.