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Mastering March Madness: How Many Upsets Should You Pick?
A 3-minute cheat sheet for your 2025 women's March Madness bracket
March Madness is officially here and, with it, the time to get irrationally frustrated at your bracket.
Why it matters: It probably doesn't! Nobody has ever filled out a perfect bracket, and, because there are fewer upsets in the women's NCAA tournament than the men's, the margins for error on your bracket are lower.
- But if you're serious about winning your office pool this year, there are a few general tips to follow.
Pick the favorites
In 2024, only one double-digit women's seed advanced past the first round. Historically, No. 1 seeds have not only won 32 of 42 national championships, but in 35 tournaments, two or more No. 1 seeds made the semifinals, per the NCAA.
- So: Wait to pick your upsets until the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. Lean on the powerhouses early.
- This year, the four No. 1 seeds are UCLA (Regional 1 - Spokane), South Carolina (Regional 2 - Birmingham), Texas (Regional 3 - Birmingham) and USC (Regional 4 - Spokane).
The intrigue: These teams are full of future WNBA players, including Te-Hina Paopao (guard, South Carolina), Kiki Iriafen (forward, USC), Lauren Betts (center, UCLA) and potential future No. 1 overall pick JuJu Watkins (USC, sophomore).
Star power
For everything we just wrote about No. 1 seeds, two non-top seeds this year have enough talent to potentially go on deep runs.
- No. 2 seed UConn is one of the most storied programs in the sport, but this might be the last shot for stars Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd to win championships as Huskies.
- Notre Dame is a No. 3 seed, but Olivia Miles and Hannah Hidalgo are two of the best players in the country.
Avoid seeds 13-16
If you are compelled to pick a first-round upset, look to a No. 11 or 12 seed. Teams seeded Nos. 14-16 are a combined 1-360 in tournament history, according to the NCAA, but 12 seeds average about one win a year.
Study the 3 seeds
While a top seed should probably be your winner pick, last year, all four Elite Eight games featured No. 1 vs. No. 3 seeds.
- March is unpredictable enough that the trend will either continue this year, or the 3 seeds β LSU, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Oklahoma β will all lose in the second round.
Ignore the First Four
The First Four games, which give the four lowest-ranked teams in the field a chance to make the 64-team bracket, are Wednesday and Thursday.
- You don't need to pick the First Four games, as most brackets will automatically include the winner, and you should probably avoid picking one of those teams to advance in the round of 64 β First Four squads are 1-11 in first-round games all time, per Sports Illustrated.
The bottom line: The first round begins Friday. Upsets are common and most days, anything can happen.
- So pick your bracket based on colors, or which mascot would win in a fight, or where your exes live. Follow your heart and fly close to the sun. It's March, and you earned it.
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Vatican releases first photo of Pope Francis since his hospitalization a month ago
The first image of Pope Francis since he was hospitalized over a month ago was released by the Vatican on Sunday.
The big picture: The photo shows him sitting alone in a wheelchair in a chapel at Rome's Agostino Gemelli Hospital after he celebrated Mass with other priests, according to the Vatican.
- The pontiff was admitted to the hospital on Feb. 14 with bronchitis symptoms and tests revealed "a complex clinical picture" that saw him diagnosed with a polymicrobial infection and later pneumonia in both lungs.
- His medical condition has "shown slight improvements" and the Vatican said last week he no longer faced immediate threat of dying from pneumonia.
What they're saying: The Pope's condition "remains stable," but "still within a clinical context" that the medical staff defines as "complex," the Vatican said Sunday.
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Latest News
- They met in Bali, fell in love, and built 2 tiny houses among the rice fields for $30,000
They met in Bali, fell in love, and built 2 tiny houses among the rice fields for $30,000

Olivia Purba.
- Oliva Purba and Dirkjan Tijs wanted to live a simpler and more sustainable life in Bali, Indonesia.
- So, they swapped their three-bedroom villa near Canggu for tiny living in Ubud.
- Instead of one tiny house, the couple built two β for $30,000.
After two years of living in a three-bedroom villa near Bali's popular Canggu tourist district, Olivia Purba and her husband, Dirkjan Tijs,Β decided it was time to downsize.
Purba, originally fromΒ North Sumatra, moved south from Indonesia's northern province in 2017 to work for a non-governmental organization in Bali as a partnerships officer, where she worked closely with small farmers in the coffee, cacao, rice, cinnamon, and seaweed sectors.
Tijs, a software engineer from the Netherlands, arrived in Bali in 2018 as a digital nomad. His original plan was to stay on the island for a month β but then he met Purba and they fell in love.
Although the couple traveled extensively, both for work and leisure, Bali always felt like home.

Olivia Purba.
The villa was their first house together. The home had a private pool and much more space than they needed.
"We thought that maybe our friends or family could come over. We also ended up renting out the extra rooms to our friends," Purba, 36, now a sustainability consultant who also runs a travel business with her husband, told Business Insider.
But over time, they realized that they wanted more privacy.

Olivia Purtaba.
Without kids, it didn't make sense for them to live in such a big house either. Moreover, their neighborhood was getting crowded, and all those factors got them thinking about a move.
"We thought, 'Let's go to Ubud because it's less crowded than Canggu and Pererenan, and build something that's simple, sustainable, and just enough for the two of us,'" she said.
Ubud is near the center of the Indonesian island and is known for its rainforest and terraced rice paddies.
From tourist-central Canggu to the lush forests of Ubud
They were drawn to tiny houses because they liked the idea of living minimally, but they also wanted enough space to start a permaculture farm where they could grow their own food.

Olivia Purba.
"I have a background in sustainability, so I always thought I needed to walk my talk, too," Purba said.
In February 2024, they found the perfect plot of land in Ubud to build on.
The property measured about 3,230 square feet and was situated in a great location: It was surrounded by trees and rice fields, yet stores and restaurants were less than 10 minutes away.
And unlike in Canggu, the traffic there isn't as bad, Purba said.

Olivia Purtaba.
While Purba is Indonesian β which means she can buy land in Bali β the couple chose to lease the plot for 25 years instead. They paid 325 million Indonesian rupiah, or about $19,800 for it.
It's cheaper to lease the land instead of buying it, Tijs, 36, told BI.

Olivia Purtaba.
"It also means that my name can also be on the property as well, and the lease aligns with the time that it'll probably take for a wooden house to stay good," he said.
There's also an ethical reason behind their decision, Purba said: "A lot of land in Bali is being taken from the Balinese. This way, after 25 years, they can have their land back."

Olivia Purtaba.
Instead of building one tiny house, the couple opted for two.
It felt economical to build two on the same plot of land since the cost of transporting materials, building resources, and tools could be shared between both houses, Tijs said.
The contractors were also able to work on the houses almost simultaneously, he said.
Although the couple had decided not to continue sharing their house, they still wanted space to host guests.
"If we have friends or family visiting, they can still stay with us on the same land. Otherwise, we can rent it out," he said.

Olivia Purba.
Despite having no formal architecture experience, Purba sketched the designs she had in mind for both houses on paper. The couple then worked with local builders to bring those ideas to life.
Save for some furniture assembly, the rest of the building work was done by their contractors.
In early October, the first tiny house β which is also the couple's primary residence β was completed.
It was an L-shaped wooden structure inspired by a combination of Japanese and Scandinavian design aesthetics.

Olivia Purtaba.
A month later, the second tiny house, which featured a loft-style design, was done.
Both tiny houses cost 492.5 million Indonesian rupiah, or about $30,000, to build.

Olivia Purtaba.
One of the biggest challenges during construction was transporting raw materials to the site. There was only one tiny road β just over three feet wide β that led to the plot.
"You can only access it by bike. Even with a bike, sometimes, if your bike is big, you'll need to stop to let people pass," Purba said.
The couple had to rent a smaller plot of land nearby to store their building materials before the builders they hired transported everything to the site using bikes and three-wheeled carts, she said.

Olivia Purtaba.
Living authentically close to nature
Purba and Tijs are part of a growing trend of people who are interested in living tiny.
As housing costs continue to rise globally, tiny houses offer a much more affordable alternative to traditional real estate.
Six people who live in tiny houses previously told BI it was a way for them to reduce their housing expenses and be more conscious about the things they buy.

Olivia Purtaba.
Likewise, being in a tiny house has enabled the couple to live a more simple life.
"Considering the size of the place, it's not super cluttered. We try to limit our stuff," Tijs said.
They've always been interested in minimalism, and living in a tiny house has only further motivated them to get rid of unnecessary things and declutter.
"You realize that if there are things you don't need, you shouldn't just keep it," Purba said.

Olivia Purtaba.
These days, the couple has been tending to their permaculture garden, where they've been growing mostly herbs, such as lemongrass and parsley, as well as fruit, like pineapples and bananas.
Although eating out is quite affordable in Bali, they are hoping to grow more of their own food.
"I also have fish in my fish pond, but let's see if I want to eat my fish," Purba said with a laugh.
Looking back, Purba says their tiny house journey has been fulfilling because she feels she's able to live more authentically.
Being close to nature has made a huge difference to her mental health. They even fall asleep to the sounds of nature at night, like the frogs croaking in the field and the water flowing in their pond, she said.
"Every day I'll go check on my plants. I'm kind of like, earthing. My feet touch the earth, and it makes me feel peaceful," she added.
Do you have a story to share about living in tiny houses? Contact this reporter at [email protected].
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Latest News
- Critical Role's founders are over a decade into the nerdworld business — and they're finally answering the big question of succession
Critical Role's founders are over a decade into the nerdworld business — and they're finally answering the big question of succession

Robyn von Swank
- Critical Role's cofounders sat down with BI and answered one big question: Are you stepping down?
- Critical Role's CEO, Travis Willingham, said the answer to that is a hard no.
- But the cofounders do want to bring on "new faces" and ink new partnerships.
Critical Role's cofounders are answering one big question about their business β and putting some speculation to bed.
The eight-member team has streamed their long-running "Dungeons & Dragons" game for hundreds of episodes. Over the last decade, the California-based crew turned their Twitch hit show into a business venture with multiple arms spanning gaming, Amazon-backed animated series, and publishing.
They've sold out stadiums for their live shows, and are embarking on a multi-city tour between April and October: Chicago, Fishers (just outside Indianapolis), Sydney, Melbourne, and New York.
BI asked four of the company's cofounders β who are now mostly in their 40s β about fan speculation that they'd step down from broadcasting to focus on behind-the-scenes work.
The answer was a hard no.
"We've had 10 amazing years β and it should be clear and known and declared that we're not going anywhere. We've got tons more to do," Travis Willingham, Critical Role's CEO, said.
Not done with telling stories
Liam O'Brien, one of CR's cofounders and the face of its literary and publishing business, told BI he already has character ideas for their next streaming project.
The crew also isn't done with the world of Exandria β the sprawling gameplay sandbox that Matthew Mercer, CR's chief creative officer, created over a decade ago.
Willingham says he wants to explore the Shattered Teeth, a string of mysterious islands in Exandria, and see what the game world looks like under the sea.
O'Brien, meanwhile, wants to take a big leap forward in time.
"Someday in some manner, in some medium, I want to visit Exandria in a science fiction far future," he said.
Ray also told BI that she's figuring out what the next cofounder-led project to hit their streaming platform, Beacon, will look like.

Critical Role
"Between Campaign Two and Campaign Three, we built a new set," Ray told BI. "We're talking about merch, and we're talking new ways that we can continue to elevate our content and how we tell this story. We are very much in the thick of that right now as we're building everything out."
New faces, new partnerships
CR is also interested in having new talent on board.
"We're very dedicated to introducing these new faces to our audience. And that's not going to stop anytime soon," Ray said.
"I don't think we could hang up the towel even if we wanted to. I think we're all addicted, so you're not going to see any of the founders go anywhere," she said.
The CR team also wants to bring new crews and their projects on board.
There's already precedent for this. CR expanded its reach in the podcasting business by acquiring shows like "Midst" and "Tales from the Stinky Dragon." The latter streamed at the Texas-based Rooster Teeth Productions until that company shut down in 2024.
Willingham told BI that the crew wants to find creatives who make "cool and nerdy" things β and he hopes CR's streaming platform, Beacon, can help give such people a platform.
"After 10 years, one of the most exciting things is the opportunity to give storytellers a new spotlight," Willingham said.
Virgin Atlantic and Joby are bringing flying taxis to the UK

John Keeble/Getty Images
- Joby Aviation is partnering with Virgin Atlantic to launch flying taxis in the United Kingdom.
- The company said the air taxi can carry up to four passengers.
- Joby also plans to launch air taxis in the US this year in New York and Los Angeles.
UK residents can soon skip the Tube, Uber, and hours of traffic by gliding through the skies in long-imagined flying taxis.
Electric air taxi companyΒ JobyΒ and British airline Virgin Atlantic announced a new partnership on Sunday to bring flying taxis to the UK.
Joby said its air cabs use "six tilting propellers" that allow them to take off and land vertically with a fraction of the noise of a helicopter.
The aircraft is designed for back-to-back flights and can carry up to four passengers at a time. They can fly at speeds of up to 200 miles per hour and be used for trips of up to 100 miles. A more than hourlong car ride from Heathrow Airport to Canary Wharf would become an 8-minute flight by air taxi.
The company plans to build a network of landing locations, known as vertiports, across the UK. At launch, it expects pricing to be in line with "premium" ride-sharing options.
Joby and Delta Air Lines β which has a 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic β announced a partnership in 2022 to use air taxis for transporting customers to the airport across the US and UK. Joby is also backed by Toyota and Uber.
"Virgin Atlantic's commitment to delighting its customers reflects our experience with Delta and we couldn't imagine a better partner to work with in the UK," Joby's founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt, said in the company's press release.
Shai Weiss, CEO of Virgin Atlantic, said, "As a leader in sustainability and with innovation firmly in our DNA, we are delighted to be partnering with Joby to bring short-haul, zero-emission flight to airports and cities throughout the UK."
Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, or eVTOLs, the technical name for air taxis, still need to clear a few regulatory hurdles before they're ready to take flight. But the UK has a roadmap called the Future of Flight Action Plan that aims to have the first eVTOL in the air by 2026.
In the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration cleared Joby's air taxis for flight in a "final rule" published in October that provides guidelines for training pilots and operations. Joby has plans to launch its first air taxis in New York City and Los Angeles by the end of this year.
United Airlines, which has a partnership with eVTOL company Archer Aviation, is also planning to launch its first air taxis this year.