• Robinhood CEO says prediction markets are the "future of not just trading, but also information."
• Vlad Tenev said he wants Robinhood to play a 'leading role' in developing them.
• Prediction markets are bets on the outcome of a future event, like an election.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said his company is going all in on prediction markets, saying they're the "future."

Tenev discussed prediction markets and his financial services company during Friday's episode of "Hard Fork," a podcast produced by The New York Times. Tenev — who's worth over $3 billion — shared his opinion about how the prediction market differs from sports betting.

"I think that mechanically there's some similarities, but they're different things," Tenev said.

"First of all, I think prediction markets are the future of not just trading, but also information," he said. "I've been a big believer in the power of prediction markets for a long time — kind of a student of them — and I think prediction markets should be live for everything."

Prediction markets are essentially bets on the outcome of future events. Traders place bets based on what they believe will happen. If enough people participate, the collective input could be a strong indicator of what might actually happen.

Tenev compared prediction markets to traditional news models like newspapers and broadcast news.

"People pay for broadcast news, too, indirectly in the form of advertising. So, what prediction markets are is the news faster, right?" Tenev said. "In some cases, you get it even before it happens. So, the economic value of that as a product and service should be at least as high, and I would argue strictly greater, than the news after it happens."

Robinhood had some success with its prediction market for the 2024 presidential election, which largely predicted Donald Trump would win though Kamala Harris made a late surge after an influential Iowa poll wrongly predicted the state would land in the Democrat's column. Prediction markets on various betting platforms — normally a realm for sports — exploded in popularity during the election.

Robinhood also launched Super Bowl event contracts earlier this month but stopped the rollout after a request from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

"At the end of the day, I think what you'll see is prediction markets are here to stay," he said. "I think some of the details around what types of prediction markets are classified in what category I think will be worked out, but Robinhood will play a leading role in that because I think this is like incredibly important technology."

Tenev talked about the potential prediction markets have for Robinhood's business during its 2024 fourth-quarter earnings call this month.

"So we were one of the few platforms that offered the ability to trade the election and that was very successful for us," Tenev said. "We had over half a billion contracts traded in right around a week leading up to the election, and so what you should expect from us is a comprehensive events platform that will give access to prediction markets across a wide variety of contracts later this year."

Pope Francis was in critical condition after an "asthma-like respiratory crisis" following earlier reports of pneumonia in both his lungs, the Vatican said on Saturday.

The big picture: The 88-year-old pontiff was admitted to Rome's Agostino Gemelli Hospital earlier this month with bronchitis symptoms and his treatment was changed after doctors found he had a polymicrobial infection of the respiratory tract.

What they're saying: "Today's blood tests also revealed thrombocytopenia, associated with anemia, which required the administration of blood transfusions," the Vatican said Saturday.

• "The Holy Father remains alert and spent the day in an armchair, although he is more uncomfortable than yesterday. At the moment, the prognosis remains guarded."

Catch up quick: The Vatican said the earlier polymicrobial infection arose "in the context of bronchiectasis and asthmatic bronchitis" and which required antibiotics, "makes the therapeutic treatment more complex."

• A follow-up chest X-ray Tuesday afternoon "demonstrated the onset of bilateral pneumonia that required further pharmacological therapy," said the Vatican of the pope, who has a history of respiratory health issues.
• "The Holy Father remains alert and spent the day in an armchair, although he is more uncomfortable than yesterday," the Vatican said Saturday. "At the moment, the prognosis remains guarded."

Go deeper: Pope jabs Vance, criticizes Trump admin for mass deportations

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the pope's latest condition.

• Axios' Lauren Floyd contributed reporting.

• Trump says he'd like to see Elon Musk "get more aggressive."
• Musk is the face of DOGE, which has upended Washington with its budget cuts and layoffs.
• Musk responded to Trump's comment a few hours later.

As far as President Donald Trump is concerned, Elon Musk's DOGE isn't cutting enough.

On Saturday, Trump praised Musk's efforts to streamline government operations and reduce the size of the federal bureaucracy and then called on his ally to do even more.

"Elon is doing a great job, but I would like to see him get more aggressive," Trump wrote in all caps on his social media platform, TruthSocial.

A few hours later, Musk responded on his social media platform, X.

"Consistent with President @realDonaldTrump's instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation."

During a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday, Trump called Musk a "patriot" for his government work.

In just over a month in office, Trump and the White House DOGE office have pushed through buyout offers and laid off swaths of staffers at the US Agency for International Development, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and elsewhere.

DOGE on Thursday said it had already saved taxpayers $55 billion, mostly through canceled contracts, though it has made some mistakes in its accounting, like reporting a contract was worth billions when it was actually worth millions.

Musk says his ultimate goal is to cut at least $1 trillion — or a "best-case outcome" of $2 trillion — from the federal budget.

"Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary, a vocal supporter of Trump's economic policies, also said during a CNN interview on Thursday that Musk should go even further in his efforts.

"I don't think he's cutting enough," O'Leary said. "When you find a broken company, whatever you think you should cut, you add 20 percent more to it. Then you see how the organization adjusts, and you can always hire back."

"There's always going to be an opportunity to criticize some cut that was too deep or the wrong person got cut," he continued. "But my point is, as long as you keep the mandate in place, keep cutting, keep hacking, keep slashing. This is good for government."

Musk's move-fast and break-things effort to disrupt and reinvent the federal government is having a significant real-world impact across the country.

In addition to the thousands who have left their jobs and are now unemployed, many farmers and organizations that rely on federal funding are seeking clarification on whether invoices for completed work will be paid.

Legal challenges to Trump's slew of executive actions have added to the uncertainty federal workers now face.