• Last year was the toughest for entry-level home affordability in four decades.
• Prospective buyers have reasons to be hopeful, but mortgage rates aren't among them.
• Here's what top real-estate analyst Ivy Zelman thinks will happen in 2025.

The US real-estate market is bound to have a better year in 2025 after a historically horrible stretch for housing affordability, but those looking for major improvements may be disappointed.

Entry-level home affordability reached a 40-year low last year, according to data compiled by Zelman & Associates, the real-estate research firm led by famed analyst Ivy Zelman.

Would-be homebuyers were battered by exorbitant property prices and mortgage rates. Although both aspects of affordability improved modestly from peak levels, it wasn't enough to give home sales a meaningful jumpstart.

Younger generations who didn't already own property had it toughest. First-time homebuyers made up less than a quarter of purchases, Realtor.com found — the lowest rate since 1981. Housing analysts are likely sick of references to the 1980s, which was one of the toughest times on record for home affordability.

The new year often brings optimism, and 2025 is no different for those hoping to buy a house.

But it may be best to stay patient, based on year-ahead projections from Zelman and her team. Their estimates for mortgage rates, home sales, prices, and supply in a January report indicate that the year ahead will be better in many ways than 2024, though still full of headaches.

Heeding Zelman's calls has historically paid off. Nearly 20 years ago, Zelman was famously skeptical about the housing market. Shortly after came the housing bubble and financial crisis. She also warned of higher home insurance costs this summer due to rising global temperatures, before the devastating California fires that some observers say are climate change-related.

Below are eight charts from Zelman's report showing what's next for US real estate, which includes the housing and rental markets.

1. Mortgage rates stay stuck high

Many of last year's upbeat predictions about the housing market, including from Zelman, centered around declining mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate had tumbled from 7.8% in late October to 6.6% by New Year's, and analysts said it would fall further as interest rates dropped.

Rates then reversed higher through April to 7.2%, which was a major surprise for Zelman. The unexpected jump in borrowing costs postponed sales, though it looked like a blip once rates trended lower through the summer and into the early fall.

But in the last four months, rates have steadily risen back to highly restrictive levels. The US economy is even healthier than expected, and investors think President-elect Trump will usher in even stronger growth and potentially higher inflation.

Either way, markets are counting on higher-for-longer rates, as is Zelman. She thinks rates will be roughly flat this year and sees the 30-year hovering around 6.7% before slipping to 6.5% in 2026. That means buyers shouldn't hold their breath for lower borrowing costs.

2. Home sales march higher

Elevated mortgage rates are a dealbreaker for many buyers and unacceptable for others.

About three-quarters of current owners have mortgage rates below 5%, Zelman's firm found, and over half (56%) are locked into rates lower than 4%. It's no wonder why they're reluctant to swap that rock-bottom rate for a 7% mortgage.

However, those who need to move may decide they can't wait any longer, given that rates may stay near current levels for years.

Both new and existing home sales should rise about 5% next year in a healthy economy, in Zelman's view. A year ago, and last April, she thought sales would surge 8% in 2025, which reflects how higher-than-anticipated rates are weighing on demand.

3. Existing home prices rise at a modest pace

Homeowners are already reluctant to move, so it stands to reason that they'll hold out for higher prices. Properties already on the market should sell for about 3% more than last year, according to Zelman & Associates, though that's below last year's rate and the expected figure for 2026.

4. New home prices inch up

A glut of new homes entering the market will keep prices at bay, Zelman and her team say. They expect freshly made properties to sell for 1% more than in 2024, following a year of flat prices.

5. Single-family rent growth stays in check

On the rental side, Zelman thinks landlords will still score price hikes, though at much lower rates than in the mid- and post-pandemic boom.

Rent growth should fall below 3% for single-family units for the first time in a decade, as rising inventory means that the occupancy rate isn't nearly as stretched as it was a few years ago.

6. Multi-family rent growth remains below-trend

Rent for multi-family units, which includes apartments, will also stay subdued, Zelman's firm said. Rent in these setups may drift north of 2%, but that's still well below levels from the 2010s.

7. Rent hikes will trail wages again

The silver lining for renters is that these increases shouldn't break the bank. Wage growth outpaced rent growth last year for the first time since at least the mid-2010s, according to Zelman & Associates, and the trend should continue this year and into 2026.

8. Multi-family supply growth slows but stays strong

There's a simple reason why rent growth isn't budging much: tenants increasingly have options since apartment supply is soaring.

Last year saw the ninth-biggest increase in multi-family inventory in the last five decades, Zelman and her peers noted. Over 600,000 new multi-family setups went online in 2024, and while that figure may fall this year, it still should be a big year for apartment construction.

Shortly after being sworn in at high noon today, President-elect Trump plans to revoke security clearances of 51 former intelligence officials who signed a letter in 2020 saying emails from Hunter Biden's laptop carried "classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.

• We're told Day 1 will bring about 200 executive actions of various sorts, including executive orders.
• Day 1 actions are expected to include declaring an emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, Jan. 6 pardons, a TikTok reprieve, and executive orders to increase fossil fuel development and reduce civil service protections for federal workers.

Why it matters: The action on security clearances is a Day 1 sign that Trump plans to use his formidable tools of office in his war with what he calls the "intelligence apparatus," which he blames for the "Russia collusion hoax."

• "The threats have real teeth to them," a transition source told me.

The big picture: During the 75-day transition, Trump's team put a huge focus on prepping a Day 1 barrage to tell the story of "promises made, promises kept" — before he's even had a full day in the Oval Office.

• "I will act with historic speed and strength and fix every single crisis facing our country," Trump said yesterday at a Make America Great Again Victory Rally at Capital One Arena in Washington.
• "Before even taking office, you are already seeing results that nobody expected to see," he added. "Everyone is calling it the ... I don't want to say this — it's too braggadocious. But we'll say it anyway, the Trump effect. It's you, you're the effect. Since the election, the stock market has surged, and small business optimism has soared ... Bitcoin has shattered one record high after another."

Charlie Kirk — founder and CEO of Turning Point USA, and one of the most powerful MAGA podcasters — calls this "Liberation Day."

• Steve Bannon, whose "War Room" podcast is powerful with Trump's base, told me it's a "tsunami this time ... flood the zone." Bannon said the fusillade will mean "the media is so overwhelmed with so much activity on so many fronts that it cannot process."

Behind the scenes: John Ratcliffe — Trump's pick for CIA director, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump's first term — brought up the issue of the 51 former officials at his confirmation hearing last week.

• We hear Ratcliffe pushed the idea of revoking the security clearances, and Trump loved the idea.

Reality check: A former U.S. official told us that some of the 51 officials are fully retired, and sees the move as largely symbolic — "none of these people are going to lose their day job."

Hollywood was already drifting out of Hollywood, and the destructive wildfires that have ravaged Los Angeles dealt another blow to the city's attempt at winning back film and TV productions.

Why it matters: The city's biggest economic driver is still recovering from a challenging decade that has already included a pandemic and twin labor strikes.

State of play: LA-based film and TV production had its second worst year in terms of shooting days, according to FilmLA, a non-profit group that hands out filming permits in the city.

• Last year featured 23,480 shooting days, coming only ahead of 2020.
• Overall production last year was down 31% compared to its five-year average (not including 2020).
• Although many studio facilities were relatively untouched by the fires, production was still halted, though some shows have picked back up.

The big picture: Over the past decade-plus, Hollywood has increasingly moved production outside of Southern California to places like Georgia, New York, New Jersey and New Mexico due in large part to generous tax breaks.

• Many big budget films are also increasingly choosing to shoot outside of the U.S. For example, 2022's "The Batman" was filmed almost entirely in England and Scotland and used Warner Bros.' Leavesden studio in England.
• Many TV shows choose to film in Toronto or Vancouver to save costs.

What's next: California Governor Gavin Newsom has proposed to double the state's film and TV tax credit from $330 million to $750 million annually. That would take it past states like New York.

• In December, a new coalition made up of over 30 different local organizations, including studio operators and payroll firms, called the California Production Coalition, formed to lobby the state on how it can stop productions from leaving.
• President-elect Trump said Thursday that he'd appoint three actors — Mel Gibson, Sylvester Stallone and Jon Voight — as "special ambassadors" in order to help bring "Hollywood, which has lost much business over the last four years to Foreign Countries, BACK!"
• It's unclear what the three — Gibson is also a director — can actually do to reverse the trend.

Zoom in: Additionally, there are multiple studio renovation projects in various stages of planning and development that could total nearly $3 billion.

• The morning before the fires started, the Los Angeles City Council approved Hackman Capital's $1 billion proposal to expand the famed Television City studio. Hackman has a separate $1 billion proposal to renovate Radford Studio Center.
• Warner Bros. is nearly finished with a $500 million renovation of its Ranch Lot and East End Studios is building a $230 million studio in the Arts District.

The bottom line: Given that Hollywood is likely to play a starring role in Los Angeles' recovery efforts, there may be even more incentive now to bring filmmaking back home.

President-elect Trump's opening flurry of executive orders will declare a "national energy emergency" to juice higher production and lower consumer costs, an incoming administration official tells Axios.

• The wave of moves on day 1 or shortly after is also expected to include an executive order to "unleash Alaska's natural resource potential." The order will support liquefied natural gas exports from the 49th state, with an eye toward helping Asia-Pacific allies.

Why it matters: Trump wants to send an instant message of "promises made, promises kept" — and signal a much friendlier climate for businesses across the board.

Trump's energy executive actions will create "conditions that facilitate investment, that facilitate job creation, that facilitate the production of America's natural resources, and the result will be lower prices for the American people," an incoming White House energy adviser told us.

• "National security is a key issue here," the adviser said. "Energy is fundamental to our foreign policy, and reducing American energy production curtails our ability to exercise our foreign policies."

Threat level: Trump's attempted reversal of Biden-era policies could boost U.S. greenhouse gas emissions — or at least slow down projected reductions.

Future focus: The power to fuel AI — which requires energy-thirsty data centers — is top of mind for the incoming White House, which is vowing to "unleash" U.S. energy.

• The emergency order is expected to focus on electricity generation. U.S. power demand is rising quickly after staying largely flat for the last 15 years.

Friction point: "We're in an AI race with the People's Republic of China and other nations," the incoming energy adviser said.

• "It's fundamental that we're able to produce the necessary electricity here in the United States so that we can win that race and protect our nation."

The big picture: Trump's team aims to ease construction of fossil-fuel infrastructure, such as pipelines. The new administration also is expected to overturn a suite of Biden-era policies:

• A major slowdown of oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and new bans in other coastal waters.
• EPA greenhouse gas regulations on power plants, vehicles, and oil and gas infrastructure.
• A "pause" on new LNG export licenses to major markets.
• Restrictions on oil, gas and mineral projects in Alaska.

Reality check: Trump's "dominance" agenda will confront market and process barriers — and plenty of litigation.

• U.S. oil output is already at record levels. Tepid global demand growth makes producers in Texas and elsewhere unlikely to flood the market.
• Gasoline and diesel costs are tethered to oil prices set on global markets, while electricity costs tend to be highly regional and dependent on weather and other forces.
• Executive orders can make some instant policy. Often they're a symbolic opening of the long, legally fraught bureaucratic slog of formally unwinding agency rules and policies.

The intrigue: It's unclear precisely what the "emergency" declaration and other orders will entail.

• "We're going to cut the burdensome red tape and bureaucracy that have inhibited our economy for four years now," the incoming energy adviser said.
• Presidents can use emergency authorities to redirect resources and push the private sector to boost or maintain critical supplies.

Between the lines: The oil and gas industry will cheer Trump's opening moves. But executives are wary of his plans for tariffs, which could raise project costs — and spur retaliation from buyers of U.S. exports.

The bottom line: The first moments and days of Trump 2.0 will ignite a U-turn from President Biden's expansive climate agenda.

• But turning those ambitions into on-the-ground reality is a far longer, trickier task.

President-elect Trump on Monday becomes the second president in U.S. history (after Grover Cleveland) to deliver a second, non-consecutive inaugural address.

Why it matters: Although Trump's first inaugural address was the shortest in modern history, it was memorable for the graphic and violent imagery he used about the country.

• During his most recent campaign, Trump called his stream-of-conscious oration "the weave," saying he intentionally delves in and out of topics.
• His rhetoric during the campaign was often violent and included threats to seek retribution against his perceived enemies.
• President Biden's inaugural address was the longest in modern history since Ronald Reagan's second term in 1985. Biden's speech focused on unity and the resilience of democracy.

Who gave the longest inauguration speech

Zoom out: Every president since George Washington has delivered an inaugural address, per the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies.

• William Henry Harrison delivered the longest one at 8,445 words, in 1841. He died a month later of pneumonia, some said brought on by exposure to the elements during his ceremony.
• Washington's second inaugural address was the shortest, at 135 words. Franklin D. Roosevelt's fourth in 1945 was the next shortest, at 559 words, according to the committee.

Trump inauguration speech 2017

Flashback: Trump's 2017 inauguration speech was widely seen by opponents as radical and divisive. But his first-term focus on immigration and the economy served as a foundation for his second victory — and today's Republican Party.

• He used the term "American carnage" to describe urban poverty, deserted factories, violent crime and a broken education system.

The intrigue: In December, fundraising for Trump's inauguration was set to surpass that of all past ceremonies.

• Contributions from companies like Meta, Apple, OpenAI, Uber and Amazon have been seen a an effort to build bridges with the incoming administration.

Go deeper: Companies line up to fund Trump's inauguration

• Starbucks is in the middle of a turnaround effort.
• The coffee chain is making changes, including some later this month, aimed at improving sales.
• Here are the biggest shifts, from more free refills to the end of Starbucks' open-door policy.

Starbucks is starting off 2025 with some big changes.

Former Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol took the helm of the coffee chain in September. Since then, Starbucks has announced a series of shifts meant to get customers ordering drinks and food again.

The turnaround attempt comes as Starbucks' sales, both in the US and globally, fell during its fourth quarter.

Here are the biggest changes that Starbucks has announced over the last few months:

Starbucks will require a purchase to hang out

Starbucks visitors will have to order something or be with someone who does in order to hang out at one of the chain's stores, starting January 27.

The coffee chain confirmed the change on January 13. It replaces the previous open-door policy, which Starbucks implemented after two black men were arrested in 2018 after one asked to use the bathroom at a Philadelphia store without buying anything.

The new policy, part of the "Coffeehouse Code of Conduct," is meant to "prioritize our paying customers who want to sit and enjoy our cafés or need to use the restroom during their visit," a Starbucks spokesperson told Business Insider.

Starbucks is offering free refills to more patrons

Another change taking effect on January 27 will allow all Starbucks customers, not just members of the chain's rewards program, to get free refills on many brewed coffees and teas.

Customers can get them by using a clean reusable cup of their own or an in-house ceramic one provided by the chain. They also have to order their drinks in-store, and refills are only available on a beverage during a single visit.

Starbucks' self-serve condiment bars are returning

Starbucks said last year that it would bring back self-service condiment bars in early 2025.

The change means customers will have to add their own milk, sugar, and other condiments to their drinks instead of relying on baristas to do it behind the counter. It will cut the time it takes baristas to serve hot cups of coffee, Niccol said on an earnings call in October.

Rewards members are getting fewer promotions through the app

The days of plentiful buy-one-get-one-free Frappuccino deals appear to be over.

Starbucks has been cutting back the number of promotions that it has offered rewards members through its app, the Wall Street Journal reported in October. It's part of a push to make the coffee chain feel more upscale, the Journal reported at the time.

The change was welcomed by some baristas, who previously said that they were overwhelmed when customers used the Starbucks mobile app to order multiple drinks at once, including through deals such as four beverages for $20.

Do you work at Starbucks and have a story idea to share? Reach out to this reporter at [email protected].

• I always enjoyed my mother's cooking, but didn't learn from her while she was still alive.
• Returning to Libya helped the me reconnect with family and learn traditional recipes.
• I feel my mother's presence in my own kitchen as I now have the confidence to cook and entertain.

I was 18 when my mother died. As difficult as it was to process, another tragedy loomed over me, one far less visible to the naked eye — I never learned how to cook from her.

Food was the thread running throughout my mother's life. There was fluffy Libyan couscous topped with glowing orange slices of pumpkin for dinner, pink Barbie princess cakes and strawberry jammed pastries for birthdays, as well as platters of her bright mouthwatering lasagna that fed our entire mosque congregation. Libyan rishta kiskas that summoned her archaic pasta maker from the darkness of the kitchen cabinet; There was also her her pastries — basbousa, abambar, pasta flora, fruit tart — which she crafted for every house party she threw.

In her life, food stretched far beyond nourishment. It was one enormous show of love, one tangible anchor of memory. I reveled in her cooking, but I never took interest in learning. My inability to carry on my mother's culinary legacy caused me to feel I'd colluded in her death in my own way.

A sparse kitchen, and even fewer skills

After the funeral, I moved into the only place I could afford, a rundown apartment unit with not a whisper of a kitchen — no sink, no stove, no oven — which deepened my distance from food.

With only a thrifted fridge and a cheap electric cooktop I purchased from Walmart, I strove to learn. I would try making tilapia which I season poorly and cooked to shreds. Ultimately, I gave up on the kitchen, haunted by my lost inheritance. I survived off whatever I could unearth at the corner store or the surprise aluminum trays full of home-cooked meals community members dropped off.

A new chance to get it right

At 23, everything shifted when I left California to return to Libya for the first time since my mother's death to be with her family. Still entrenched in grief, being able to finally mourn together enabled me to wholeheartedly approach the kitchen.

I asked my Auntie Leila to teach me how to make couscous, and she happily agreed. It was a favorite dish growing up, one my mother would typically make on weekends. I peeled carrots and potatoes as she seasoned the bubbling lamb stew. My prodding about measurements and cooking times did nothing but elicit her to huff out an age-old Libyan proverb that roughly translates to "my eye is my scale."

It was a bittersweet compensation for all the years I missed with my mother in the kitchen. Though the couscous was not an exact replica of my mother's recipe, it managed to capture the essence of it, giving me the strength to move forward on my own culinary journey.

Finding the confidence to try

Upon returning to California, I cobbled together the best kitchen I possibly could. I splurged on a new fridge, a new cooktop, and thrifted a shelf to store spices. I even procured my first apron, which felt as symbolic as planting a flag atop Mount Everest.

I made dishes from around the world: gochujang chicken, doro wat, çilbir, and shokupan. At my mother's friends' homes, where I had always sat on the outskirts of their kitchens, I began to invite myself beside them at the stove. I learned their beloved recipes and I taught them the ones I had recently learned. I fell in love with the transformative ritual of kneading, mixing, and stirring. Most of all, I fell in love with how I was transforming, how each dish made my grief easier to carry.

Years later, I moved out of my unit and into a home fit for the living. The apartment was modest, but it felt like a palace to me, complete with a sink, stove, and oven. I ecstatically hosted my first-ever gathering. As I flitted from one corner of the kitchen to the next to prepare dinner, I felt my mother's gentle presence wrap all around me like I was being guided by her spirit while still making the kitchen my own.

I used to wish for a romantic story of how I learned to cook side-by-side with my darling mother. But the real story, pieced together in her absence, is no less filled with love.

• President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration is slated to be full of major business CEOs.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang isn't among them — he's celebrating the Lunar New Year in Asia.
• Huang met with tech leaders and attended local celebrations in Taiwan over the weekend.

Many of Silicon Valley's tech titans are getting ready to attend President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration today — but not Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

On Friday, Huang was in Taiwan, where he told reporters he wouldn't be at Trump's inauguration as he will be celebrating Lunar New Year with employees.

"The year-end party is very important for us because the employees work so hard and it's my opportunity to thank everyone," Huang said, referring to festivities ahead of Lunar New Year, which starts on January 29.

Huang also told reporters he hasn't spoken with the incoming Trump administration but is looking forward to congratulating the team.

During his visit to Taiwan, Huang attended year-end parties at Nvidia and Wistron, a Taiwanese supplier, according to local media reports.

He also hosted a lunch with tech leaders including TSMC Chairman CC Wei and Foxconn Chairman Young Liu, highlighting the key role Taiwan plays in the world's tech supply chain amid geopolitical tensions with Beijing, which claims the island as its territory.

Huang's Taiwan trip also included a visit to his regular hair salon, stops at night markets, and dinner plans at TSMC founder Morris Chang's residence. Huang left Taipei on Sunday morning and is in China, according to local media reports.

An Nvidia spokesperson told Business Insider it doesn't comment on the travel schedules of its company executives.

Last year, Huang was also in Asia celebrating Lunar New Year in China.

'Jensanity' in Taiwan

Huang's 55-hour visit to Taiwan ignited excitement on the island, where he was swarmed by the media and by fans wanting his autograph.

Seen as the local boy who made good, Taiwan-born Huang is a star in Taiwan. The phenomenon has been coined "Jensanity."

During a visit to the island in June, Huang received a rockstar's reception and even signed one woman's chest. On Halloween, at least one Taiwanese kid dressed up as Huang, with his mom telling BI at the time that her 5-year-old son knew he was "dressed as a very remarkable person."

Huang has also become a tech celebrity, with his memo-writing style, fashion sense, and organizational style becoming topics of discussion.

Nvidia is the leading producer of AI chips — a key domain the US and China are competing in. The company's share price has skyrocketed in the past two years.

Nvidia is now one of the world's most valuable companies, with a market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. Huang is the 12th-richest person in the world, with the Bloomberg Billionaires Index estimating his net worth at $117 billion.

Nvidia shares closed 3.1% higher on Friday. They are up 2.6% year to date and 131% higher over the past year.

Tech leaders in the US prepare for Trump 2.0

Trump's four-day inauguration celebration kicked off on January 18.

Major tech CEOs — including Amazon's Jeff Bezos, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, Tesla's Elon Musk, Google's Sundar Pichai, and TikTok's Shou Zi Chew — are expected to be at Trump's inauguration.

The inauguration has also drawn donations from tech giants. Google and Meta each donated $1 million to the event.

Earlier this month, Huang said he had not yet met Trump, but that he would be "delighted" to get an invite to visit Mar-a-Lago, Trump's Palm Beach resort.

Nvidia declined to comment to BI on whether the company or Huang has donated to Trump's inauguration.

Trump's inauguration also coincides with the first day of Davos in Switzerland, which draws heads of business and state from around the globe.