• US home sales just ended a 39-month year-over-year decline, signaling the end of the bear market, NDR said.
• Affordability issues, driven by high mortgage rates, drove the 3-year decline in home sales activity.
• Investors could take advantage of the setup by buying the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF, NDR said.

The bear market in US home sales is finally over, according to a recent note from Ned Davis Research.

The firm highlighted that total single-family home sales finally turned positive year-over-year after 39 months of consecutive declines.

The 39-month decline in home sales was only outdone by the 43-month decline during the housing bubble from 2005 through 2009.

"But the recent affordability-driven pandemic bear could not be more different than the credit-driven housing bubble bear," Pat Tschosik, a strategist at Ned Davis Research, said.

The main difference between the two notable declines in home sales is affordability.

Whereas the affordability index rose 53 points from 2005 through 2009, it plunged 39 points from 2021 through 2024, driven by high mortgage rates and ever-rising home prices.

"Homeowners, locked into low rates and unwilling to move, added to low supply and higher prices," Tschosik said.

Additionally, the stocks of homebuilders outperformed over the past three years, compared to them underperforming during the 2005 through 2009 stretch.

The recent rebound in home sales activity suggests to Tschosik that the housing market should thaw in 2025, enabling a rebound in durable and home improvement spending.

For investors, that means the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF could be a worthy addition to portfolios for next year. The ticker symbol is "ITB."

"We are watching ITB for an upgrade. If inflation fears are overblown, the recent ITB correction could be a great buying opportunity," Tschosik said.

The ETF has declined by more than 15% since fears of a rebound in inflation gripped the market in late November.

The top holdings within the Home Construction ETF include home builders D.R. Horton, Lennar Corp, NVR, and Pulte Group, as well as home-improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe's.

• TikTok could be banned come January, but what are the other fascinating creator-economy stories?
• BI's media team rounded up the most intriguing stories for the year ahead.
• Our picks ranged from a battle between Spotify and YouTube to what will happen in "IRL social."

There are many fascinating stories popping up in the creator economy every day. So, which ones have really caught the eye of Business Insider's team of reporters and editors?

We're all closely tracking whether TikTok will be banned in the US in January. But that's not the only story that could shake up the industry.

As we head into 2025, BI's media team rounded up the creator-economy storylines we are most excited to dig into next year.

Dan's storyline to watch: Influencers look to become QVC-style live shopping hosts

Live shopping has really begun to catch on in the US. Next year, I'm watching to see if top influencers embrace live selling and become QVC-style hosts — or if its momentum fades.

US creators have always hawked goods on behalf of brands, but live selling hasn't been a popular approach. It makes sense, as it's much easier for a creator to make a quick sponsored post than to film a 2-hour live sellathon.

TikTok Shop sought to popularize live selling in the US by working with outside partners to train live-selling creators and aggressively promoting the practice. I expect that will continue next year (if TikTok isn't banned), alongside efforts to drive up livestreams among e-commerce competitors like Amazon, Whatnot, and TalkShopLive.

But will creators whose content has nothing to do with e-commerce choose to try out live selling in 2025? Will live shopping replace static brand deals as the predominant way US creators make money, as it has in other regions like Asia? We'll be watching.

-Dan Whateley, senior reporter

Amanda's storyline to watch: Spotify and YouTube battle over video podcasting

Creators are launching their own talk shows in the form of video podcasts.

As this growing trend of serialized long-form content takes over screen times, two tech giants — Spotify and YouTube — will continue to compete to be the best platform.

YouTube is already a strong leader in the creator economy and a go-to creator platform. Spotify has also had a good year, reporting increased profitability in its Q3 earnings.

As video podcasts rise in popularity, these two platforms will have to convince both creators and viewers why they're the best place to earn money, engage with fans, and reach new audiences.

The race has already begun. YouTube took a stand by releasing a suite of tools and features that creators can't get on other podcast platforms — including the ability to go live, respond to comments, and earn revenue from donations.

Meanwhile, Spotify invested heavily in video in 2024, developing its own tools and more ways to pay creators for video podcasts through subscription earnings and ad revenue.

So, how will these platforms compete in 2025, and who will ultimately win in the video podcast race?

-Amanda Perelli, senior reporter

Sydney's storyline to watch: The future of IRL social apps

Social-media platforms are great for entertainment ... but for making new friends and maintaining IRL relationships? Less so.

However, a wave of startups that have either launched or expanded in 2024 plans to fill that gap. From in-person dinners offered by apps (like 222 or Timeleft) to event platforms (like Partiful or Posh), some startup founders are finding product-market-fit amid a loneliness epidemic. The trend extends beyond mobile apps, too, with in-person clubs or groups growing in popularity, like reading groups or running clubs.

While some of these startups are already raising capital and dabbling with monetization, will these solutions to loneliness stick around in 2024? And if they do stick, who will be category winners and what will success be defined by?

-Sydney Bradley, senior reporter

Nathan's storyline to watch: Creators on TV

The walls between the TV and the creator worlds are being torn down brick by brick, particularly by YouTube.

In November, as it has been for a while, YouTube was the top streaming service on TVs in the US, coming in at 10.8% of viewing compared to Netflix's 7.7%, per Nielsen.

With the lines blurring, will we see more streamers and even traditional TV networks look to creator-style content, as ESPN has done with Pat McAfee?

Creator TV shows have had a muddled history, but I'd argue that their struggles often came from networks trying to parachute an influencer into a traditional "TV" format. What about meeting them halfway?

On that point, it's been interesting to see the convergence of podcasts and video. YouTube (hello again) is the top podcasting platform in the US, ahead of Spotify (which is also looking to beef up video) and Apple Podcasts.

What's stopping the likes of Netflix, or even CNN, from licensing podcasts as long as they get the video quality up to snuff? CNN+ wanted to give Scott Galloway a show once upon a time. Maybe they should just put one of his hit podcasts on the air. The cable TV business is in freefall. It's time to get creative.

-Nathan McAlone, deputy editor

The media, our social media feeds and our most pessimistic friends fill us with doom and gloom stories. But by many measures, there's never been a better time to be alive in America. 

Why it matters: Yes, bad people are always doing bad things for bad reasons. It's called life. This column focuses on the Good Stuff: the undeniable trends that reveal a distinct edge for America, young people and this moment.

When your boozy uncle goes dark today, remind him and others:

1. There's no better place to start a business and rise to unthinkable heights doing what you choose to do. We have the best hospitals, colleges and technology centers.
2. You can think, say and worship as you please without fear of imprisonment. Faith might be fading, but the ability to practice it is unfettered.
3. The United States has the world's strongest military. We enjoy peace with our neighbors and the protection of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Our military is both the most feared — and most sought-after by other nations for assistance.
4. We're blessed with abundant natural resources — we can produce enough energy from the ground and skies to power ourselves for generations. In just eight years, the U.S. "has rocketed from barely selling any gas overseas to becoming the world's No. 1 supplier" — bolstering the economy and strengthening American influence abroad. (N.Y. Times)
5. We're still the place where people want to risk their lives to come live, work and raise a family.
6. The greatest inventions come from magical animal spirits of American capitalism, freedom and entrepreneurial zest — hardwired into our souls and our national story. We enjoy a massive early lead to build the next great technology: generative artificial intelligence.
7. The United States is the world's longest-surviving democracy, which has remained steadfast, resilient and enduring through existential crises.
8. Young people are more optimistic than ever, earning more than ever, and able to make an instant difference in the workplace because of their tech savvy.
9. And Jim's favorite: Most people are normal. They don't watch cable food fights, or dunk on people on X, or say or do nasty things to others. They work hard, volunteer, help you shovel in a storm.

The bottom line: We're blessed, this and every holiday season, to have smart, engaged, thoughtful readers who trust us — and remind us when we fall short. Enjoy your family. Enjoy the holidays. Enjoy America.